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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 11/8/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/8/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Mackenzie Blackwood San Jose Sharks

Another week has come and gone, as NHL teams near the 15-game mark on the season. We have a clear idea of what the Winnipeg Jets are all about, as the Connor Hellebuyck anchored team is putting the league on notice. In addition to their successes, we have seen the Wild, Kings, and Capitals also sustain surprising starts to their campaigns. Looking deeper into the league, let’s explore how one NHL titan is falling by the wayside, while examining if the Washington Capitals are a real Stanley Cup contender, as well as looking at some bubble teams, and see if there is a new changing of the guard in the league’s basement.

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Boston Blues

What is going on in Boston? They have limped out of the gates to a 7-7-1 record, they have been shutout three times, they have a -11-goal differential on the season, which is the lowest of any team in the playoff picture, they rank 25th in GF/G, and they are missing Linus Ullmark greatly as they rank 24th in GA/G. A win is a win, but three of their seven wins are overtime games, and they have struggled to compete against the league’s better teams, going 2-5 against the likes of Toronto (1-1), Dallas (0-1), Florida (0-2), Los Angeles (1-0), and Carolina (0-1). The two wins were in overtime, and they have a -14-goal differential in those seven games. Jeremy Swayman has underperformed this season, as he has allowed 3.14 GA/G on a .894 SV% so far this season and he has allowed 12 goals over his last three starts. As for the offense, David Pastrnak is getting his as he always does, leading the team in points (13) and goals (six). Brad Marchand (11 points) joins Pastrnak as the only other Bruins player to have reached the double-digit point mark this season. Key role players in Trent Frederic and Charlie Coyle have both struggled to start the season, as they have just three points each. And offseason addition Elias Lindholm has yet to elevate the offense to a new level, as he has scored just two goals through the first 15 games of the season. There is still a long way to go, but there is enough of a sample size to see that there may be some troubling waters ahead for Boston.

Win it all Washington

The Washington Capitals early season success is being heavily overshadowed by the torrid start of the Winnipeg Jets, but make sure you pay attention to the Caps. Last season, Washington finished the year ranked 28th in GF/G, which really held this team back. After an offseason of addressing the issue, the Capitals find themselves just two points out of first place in the Metro Division standings, and their 18 points on the season is the eighth most in the league. What is really interesting about this early season success is, though they added some solid offensive players, the new guys have yet to really make an impact. Dylan Strome leads the team with 19 points and ranks fourth in the league in assists with 15, while Alex Ovechkin and Connor McMichael are tied for the team lead with eight goals. Tom Wilson has been a bit of an unsung hero as well, as he has tallied six goals so far, and Aliaksei Protas is on pace for a career year. These five have put the Capitals on everyone’s radar, as the offense has woken up, but not all of it. Pierre-Luc Dubois, Andrew Mangiapane, and Jakob Chychrun have combined to record just 15 points. Dubois and Chychrun have 60-point potential, while Mangiapane is a former 30+ goal scorer. If these guys wake up and join the incumbent Caps, they might have one of the best offenses in the league. In addition to the newly found offense, the goalie tandem has been solid once again this season, with Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren combining to allow 2.92 GA/G, with Thompson posting a 6-0 record this season. Washington currently sits at +5000 to win the Stanley Cup and +950 to win the Metro, and its time to take a flier.

Bubble Update

As teams approach the 15-game mark, let’s identify one team from each conference who is currently outside of the playoff picture but could shake things up as the season progresses:

Nashville Predators 4-9-1 / To Make the Playoffs: +110

It is true, the Predators currently find themselves in the basement with just nine points on the season. However, if last year taught us anything, we cannot count anyone out yet. The Oilers were off to a terrible start and found themselves in the finals. Nashville may not have the weapons that last year’s Edmonton team had, but they are not far off. This is a veteran group that has all kinds of playoff experience, they just have to get there. They have dug themselves a bit of a hole to start the season, but they are only six points out of the second wild card spot and a lot of games ahead of them. The roster consists of Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Stamkos, and Ryan O’Reilly and they have Juuse Saros in the crease, they will figure it out… right? At +110 to reach the playoffs, there is good value if you believe in Smashville.

Ottawa Senators 6-7 / To Make the Playoffs: +132

At 12 points, the Senators find themselves three points out of the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. However, they are one of just two teams who aren’t in the playoff picture but have a positive goal differential on the season. The weakness for Ottawa is their performance away from home. They have a 1-5 road record, which is the worst in the NHL, and they have been held to just one goal in three of their six road games this season. Ullmark is 0-4 on the road this season and has allowed 17 goals in those games. However, when they play on home ice, this is a dangerous looking team. They are 5-2 at home and the splits look much better. Ullmark has allowed just two goals in his two home starts and the offense is averaging 4.29 GF/g. If Ottawa can stay competitive and figure out their road woes, they will add at the deadline and make a big push to grab a wild card spot.

Avoid the Sharks

Right now, the Nashville Predators are in last place in the league standings as the only team that has not reached 10 or more points. Just ahead of the Predators are the San Jose Sharks, Montreal Canadiens, and the Anaheim Ducks. The Canadiens and Sharks are tied for the worst goal differential in the league at -20 and are two of the just three teams to allow more than 55 goals this season. Though they are 4-2 over their last six games, do not forget this Sharks team started the season with a nine-game losing streak and have scored more than three goals in just three of their games so far this season. They have recorded just three points out of 14 possible points on the road, which is not good considering six of their next seven games are at home. This is a crucial stretch as the Sharks’ odds for worst league record is juiced to +110, and a poor performance this weekend will level out the odds. The Sharks have a long way to go before they get out of the basement, and they are going to sell at the deadline, which only kicks the can down the road. Do not bite that this is an improved team.

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