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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 11/29/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/29/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leafs

After a day off for the league for Thanksgiving, teams are back in action today. We are quickly approaching the end of the calendar year, and we are starting to really understand the direction of these teams. The Central Division is shaping up to be an exciting race with the emergence of Kirill Kaprizov led Minnesota Wild. The Toronto Maple Leafs are another team that projects to be one of the best in the league thanks to their goaltending improvements, while the Nashville Predators and Pittsburgh Penguins struggles continue. With Black Friday sports on deck, let’s get into these league notes and trends.

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Central Division Madness

At this point in the season, the Central Division is shaping up to be an incredible division to track. As of now, the former three team race has now extended to four. The Winnipeg Jets are currently sitting atop the Central Division in the league standings with 36 points. They have a four-point lead over the second place Minnesota Wild, who have been one of the best surprise stories of the season. They have 32 points through their first 22 games, and they are 10-1-3 on the road this season, the best road performance in the NHL. Behind the Wild are the Dallas Stars, who came into the season as the team to beat. They have had a bit of a slow start but have managed 26 points through their first 21 games and hold onto the final guaranteed spot in the division. Did we forget anybody? Oh yes, then there is the league powerhouse (former league powerhouse?) Colorado Avalanche, who also have 26 points on the season, though they have a -8-goal differential on the season. As of now, the Jets have the best odds to win the Central Division at +150, with the Stars behind them at +230. The Wild (+320) and Avalanche (+550) have some juiced odds that are worth monitoring. I still like the Stars in this division, as they have the deepest roster and Jake Oettinger is quietly having an incredible season and is 11-4 this season in the crease. However, the Wild and Jets have definitely shown enough this season to follow them. Winnipeg has great value to win the Stanley Cup at +1800. No matter who wins, this division race will be incredible.

Toronto Time

There have been a lot of talks of curses and the inevitable choking of the Maple Leafs when the playoffs roll around. However, they look just a little bit different this season. They currently sit stop the Atlantic Division standings with 28 points and a one-point lead over the Florida Panthers. One of the biggest improvements of this Toronto team is their goaltending. Anthony Stolarz has been elite this season, allowing just 2.33 GA/G on a .921 SV%, both marks ranking inside the Top 10 in the league. His backup, Joseph Woll, is doing even better. Woll has allowed just 2 GA/G on a .922 SV% through his first seven appearances and he carries a 5-2 record. While their goaltending is one of the best units in the league, the offense has been missing and so has their star Auston Matthews. Mitch Marner has picked up the slack a bit and leads the team in points with 29 and his 20 assists rank inside the Top 10 in the league. Behind Marner is William Nylander (24 points) and John Tavares (20 points), with Nylander leading the team with 14 goals. Matthews has played in only 13 games this season, and his return will give the offense a much-needed boost as they are averaging just 2.95 GF/G. Toronto has +1300 odds to win the Stanley Cup, +600 to win the Eastern Conference, and +170 to win the division. With the Bruins season imploding already, and the Panthers not as stout as last year, this could be Toronto’s year to make a deep run in the playoffs.

Not Now Nashville

There was a lot of hype around the Predators heading into the season after a noisy offseason that put this team right back on the map after trading away some of their core players over the last two years. Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei were supposed to come in and revitalize this team. It could not have gone worse for Nashville to start the season. The offense has been non-existent this season, as they rank last in the league in scoring, averaging 2.35 GF/G. Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg have been the main contributors on offense, but the new offseason additions have not had the impact fans were expecting. Juuse Saros has done incredible as always, but Scott Wedgewood has really struggled, as he is allowing 3.69 GA/G and has a lowly SV% of just .878. They currently sit in the basement of the league with 18 points and have a -19-goal differential, which is the fourth worst differential in the NHL. Right now, the Predators have +154 odds to make the playoffs, but their playoff hopes are incredibly dim, and the team is largely expected to sell, making this number a trap. Nashville’s on queue for a rebuild.

Worst Record Dark Horse

Speaking of the worst record and point mark. The Predators are joined by a few other teams. As of now, the San Jose Sharks are once again the heavy favorites to finish with the worst record in the league at +100. As of now, the Sharks have just 19 points through their first 25 games. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Chicago Blackhawks are the next two favorites to finish with the worst record, and both teams are going to be in the mix. However, there is one team in particular who you should keep your eye on. The Pittsburgh Penguins currently have 20 points and are currently in the basement in the Metro Division. Their -33-goal differential is the worst in the league, and their 97 goals allowed is the highest mark in the season. They currently have +3400 odds to finish with the worst record in the league, which is incredibly juiced because they don’t even look like an NHL team right now. They are in complete disarray, and they may be ready to sell before the deadline. Alex Nedeljkovic has been the mainstay goalie for the Penguins, but he has allowed 3.42 GA/G and has a terrible .877 SV% mark. If they sell and finally free Sidney Crosby, this team is definitely going to be in the basement of the league.

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