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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 11/15/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/15/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Jonathan Quick New York Rangers

As we near the 20-game mark on the season, there are plenty of trends and notes to unpack. The Winnipeg Jets are off to the best start ever in the NHL, while teams like the Bruins and Predators are in panic mode already. The San Jose Sharks are deserving of a shoutout as they are no longer in the basement of the league as they rank ahead of the Ducks, Canadiens, and Blue Jackets. Another deserving shoutout goes to the new leader in the Hart Trophy race, which we will get into, while we dive deeper into the best home bets, the teams who are absolutely average, as well as the chaotic Atlantic Division.

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Panic in the Atlantic

The Atlantic Division is shaping up to be an incredibly chaotic race this season. The Florida Panthers currently lead the way and sit atop the division with 23 points, while the Toronto Maple Leafs are right behind them with 22. After that, chaos ensues. The Boston Bruins are in third with 18 points, while the Lightning, Senators, and Sabres are all tied with 17 points with Detroit (15) and Montreal (12) rounding out the division standings. Now that may be a normal division race, but when you look closer, this division race is going to be tight. The second place Leafs and fourth place Lightning lead the division with a +7-goal differential, while the third place Bruins have the second worst goal differential within the Atlantic at -16. Those same Bruins have the same amount of regulation wins as the last place Canadiens with just five. Despite leading the division with 23 points and an 11-5-1 record, the Panthers +5 goal differential is just the 12th highest in the league and is the lowest of any current division leaders. The seventh place Red Wings have scored the least number of goals in the Eastern Conference with just 37, but they have allowed the least number of goals (45) within the division and are two wins away from working their way into the final guaranteed spot. Unfortunately for the Atlantic Division members, they currently do not have a hold of either wild card spot in the Eastern Conference as they belong to the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders, but the Islanders should fall off and pave the way for the mess in the Atlantic. Yes, it is only November, but the Atlantic Division is going to be an entertaining playoff race. As of now, the Panthers are currently the favorites to win the division at +120, but the Maple Leafs (despite being only one point behind them, currently) are +300 and are my pick to win the division.

Hart Hopeful

For those of you who have paid attention, we have a new leader in the Hart Trophy race. No, it’s not Connor McDavid or Nikita Kucherov or even Artemi Panarin or David Pastrnak. It’s Kirill Kaprizov. First and foremost, Kaprizov is leading his Wild to new heights this season as they have picked up 25 points in 16 games this season and are in second place in the Central Division. Kaprizov leads his team in points (30), assists (20), and is tied for the team lead in goals with Matt Boldy (10). His +/- rating of +16 leads the team and he is carrying a 20% S%. His 30 points on the season is the second most in the NHL behind Nathan MacKinnon’s 33. He is also second in assists, ninth in goals, and leads the league in +/- rating. Though the race is tight, Kaprizov leads the pack at +310 with MacKinnon right behind him at +350 with Kucherov (+440), McDavid (470), and Panarin (+1000) round out the Top Five favorites for the Hart Trophy.

Stay Away from the Pack

The Florida Panthers lead the NHL in overs with 12, while the Anaheim Ducks are tied with five other teams in the league with the most under game total performances, but they lead the way in Under%. In terms of the spread, the San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs, and St. Louis Blues lead the way with the most covers, though the Blues’ Cover% is slightly better, and the Boston Bruins find themselves in last place in the league ATS as they have failed to cover in 13 of their 18 games this season. As we approach the 20-game mark, we have a good sample size to judge these trends on. Fading Boston and expecting high scoring games from Florida has been the way to go. However, what about the teams who are breaking even? Let’s see who is just middle of the pack in regard to both the spread and the game total.

Seattle Kraken: 9-8 ATS, 8-9 OU

Why to stay away- To add to the mediocrity, the Kraken are also 8-8-1 overall this season and are in sixth place in the Pacific Division. They also carry a +1-goal differential on the year. They have two win streaks of three games while also having two losing streaks of three games or more. Seattle ranks 16th in PP% and 19th in PK% while also ranking 13th in SV%. The Kraken are a bettor’s worst nightmare. There is no read on this team.

Los Angeles Kings: 9-9 ATS, 7-8-3 OU

The Kings sit a little bit higher than the Kraken do, as they are 9-6-3 overall and are in second place in the Pacific Division. However, they carry just a +3-goal differential on the season. The Kings do rank in the Top 10 in GA/G, allowing just 2.94 GA/G, but the offense has really held this team back this season as they are averaging just 3.17 GF/G. It remains to be seen how long the goalie tandem of Darcy Kuemper and David Rittich can continue their dominating ways, but the Kings go as far as they do. The Kings are a no go.

New York Rangers 7-8 ATS, 7-7-1 OU

The Rangers are 10-4-1 overall this season, so taking them straight up has been a reliable bet and their +17-goal differential is the fourth best mark in the Eastern Conference. However, they have been completely unreliable otherwise. They started the season going 5-1 ATS but have since gone just 2-7. Their ability to cover consistently remains to be seen.

Home Heros

As we get a solid sample size of a team’s performance ATS, we can dig a little deeper and find out who is the best at covering on their home ice. The Toronto Maple Leafs lead the league in home covers with seven, with five teams falling in behind them with six home covers. However, the Maple Leafs have played 10 games at home and have only the third highest home Cover%. The Carolina Hurricanes have the highest home cover%, as they have covered five of their six home games this season, which is good for 83%. Behind the Hurricanes are the Dallas Stars, who have covered in six of their eight home games this season, which is good for 75%. Now looking at game totals at home, the Colorado Avalanche have the most home overs in the league with nine and have the best home Over% of 81%. The second most home overs belong to the Vegas Golden Knights, who have hit the over in seven of their nine home games. On the flip side, the Toronto Maple Leafs lead the league in the under hitting at home. They have seen the south side of the game total in seven of their 10 home games this season and their 70% home Under% leads the league.

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