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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 11/1/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/1/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Adam Henrique Edmonton Oilers

Another week of hockey is in the books, and the Winnipeg Jets are still smashing expectations as they lead the league with 18 points, losing just once this season. Teams like the Boston Bruins, New York Islanders, and Nashville Predators are still trying to find their footing on the season, as they are all still in the basement of their respective divisions. As trends continue to establish themselves, let’s take a deeper look at where teams are the most dangerous as well as the new names in contention for the Hart Trophy.

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Home Warriors

As the season progresses, teams begin to showcase how important home ice is. As it stands now, there are just three teams left in the league that have yet to lose on their home ice. The Vegas Golden Knights are 7-0, the Dallas Stars are 5-0, and the Los Angeles Kings are 3-0 on home ice this season. Not only have they won these games outright, the Golden Knights and Stars have been covering the spread at a high rate. The two teams are a combined 10-2 ATS at home this season. Dallas has two shutouts at home, as they shut out the Islanders and Kraken in back-to-back games earlier this season and they carry a +11-goal differential on home ice. As for Vegas, they have been winning with a lot of goals. Vegas has averaged 5.57 GF/G at home this season and has a +23-goal differential in such games. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals are other teams to take note of when playing at home. They are both 5-1 ATS at home and have a 9-3 outright record. Staying in line with teams winning and covering at home, the Golden Knights and Blue Jackets have hit the over in nine of their combined 13 home games this season, while the Stars have hit the under four of their five home games.

Wild Road Rage

The Minnesota Wild have turned heads this season as they currently sit in second place in the Central Division, tied with the Dallas Stars, with 14 points through the team’s first nine games. The Wild have picked up a league best 11 points on the road this season, as they are coming off a successful seven game road stretch. Minnesota picked up 11 of the possible 14 points during this road trip, a stretch that featured some tough teams. Not only have they been successful in picking up the points, but they have been covering the spread at a high rate as well, going 6-1 ATS on the road. They have allowed just 2.43 GA/G on the road while averaging 3.86 GF/G, dominating both aspects of the game. In addition to the Wild’s road game success, the Winnipeg Jets are the lone undefeated team on the road this season, as they have gone 5-0 and have averaged nearly five GF/G. The New York Rangers and Anaheim Ducks have been cover darlings on the road this season. The Wild, Rangers, and Ducks have a combined 15-4 record ATS this season.

Hart Heros

When the season started, we had our list of expected front runners for the Hart Trophy. And while those three still top the list, as we have progressed through the first 10 games of the season, there are a few new names being thrown in the hat. First and foremost, it is worth noting that the odds on favorite is still Connor McDavid (+360) despite his extended absence due to injury. Behind McDavid is Nikita Kucherov (+390) and Nathan MacKinnon (+460), who both rank inside the Top Five in the league in points. However, there are a lot of other names to consider as the season unfolds. To start off the list of new names is Kirill Kaprizov, who is tied with MacKinnon for the third most points in the league at 18. Kaprizov is averaging two points per game and has scored five goals and tallied 13 assists. After his hot start, he is fourth on the Hart Trophy odds list at +500. In addition to Kaprizov are the two league leaders in points in Cale Makar and Mark Stone. Makar has 19 points on four goals and 15 assists but carries a -7 +/- rating. He is currently carrying +1200 odds for the Hart Trophy. Stone, on the other hand, has 19 points with five goals and 14 assists and has a +6 +/- rating. However, perhaps due to his injury history, Stone’s odds remain incredibly juiced at +7500, which is 17th on the list. No matter the odds, Stone, Makar, and Kaprizov are all inserting their names into the Hart Trophy discussion thanks to their hot starts.

Edmonton Woes

Should you call it woes when you are 5-5-1 through your first 11 games? Perhaps not, but the woes extend far beyond their pedestrian record. McDavid is set to miss extended time with an injury. And while he has rebounded from his slow start, guys like Zach Hyman (two points), Adam Henrique (one point), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (four points), and Jeff Skinner (five points) have yet to live up to their expectations. Edmonton, having been one of the best scoring teams in the league over the past few years, is averaging just 2.45 GA/G, which is in the bottom five of the league and their power play has been just as bad, as they are cashing in on just 13.3% of their power play chances. Stuart Skinner has also taken a big step back, as he is allowing 3.51 GA/G on a lowly .872 SV%. If last year was any indication of just how well this team can turn a season around, then there is no sense in giving up on the Oilers now. However, it is a bit concerning to see them stumble to start the season.

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