Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 10/25/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/25/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup Matt Boldy Minnesota Wild

As we begin the third week of the regular season, we have begun to get some great stories, like surprise teams, as well as some reliable trends as teams approach 10 games played. So far, the Blues lead the league with a 6-2 record ATS, while titans such as Boston, Colorado, and Edmonton are a combined 5-18 ATS so far this season. There have been some surprise teams to start the season like the Calgary Flames, Minnesota Wild, and Washington Capitals, and teams right back to their dominating ways like the Winnipeg Jets and the New York Rangers. There have also been some noticeably bad goaltending performances around the league. With all that and more, let’s get into what has been going on around the league to start the year.

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Surprising Starts

With every season, there are surprise stories, both negative and positive. Teams have now been in action for two weeks, and we are seeing some surprising stories unfold already. Let’s start with the positive ones. The Winnipeg Jets are 7-0 this season with a +18-goal differential and they have allowed less than two GA/G while averaging 4.43 GF/g. Now you can argue that their opponents haven’t been the toughest (combined 21-24-8 record), but they have taken care of business. The Jets’ next game is on the road against another surprise team, the Calgary Flames. The Flames sit atop the Pacific Division Standings with a 5-1-1 record. The offense may have already lost its spark, though, as they have tallied just 10 goals over their last four games after scoring 16 goals in their first three. Another team surpassing expectations is the Washington Capitals. The Caps have won their last five games to reach 10 points on the year. They have wins over Dallas, Vegas, and New Jersey over this current stretch. Offense was the biggest question for Washington heading into the new season, and they have seemingly showcased their ability to score, averaging 4.33 GF/G.

Now with all the good stories, comes the bad ones. There has not been a worse, more underwhelming start, than the Nashville Predators. After spending a lot of resources on acquiring veteran talent, the Preds came out of the gates extremely sluggish on offense. They lost their first five games while scoring just 10 goals in those games and carrying a -13-goal differential. Steven Stamkos has just one point and a -8 +/- rating so far, while newly acquired blueliner Brady Skjei has just two points. Now the Predators did just shut out the Bruins in a solid 4-0 win, so maybe they have some life, but they look slow and underwhelming.

Wild in Minnesota

There were some cautiously optimistic fans and media members regarding the Wild’s chances this season. So far, the Wild have not disappointed. They have picked up a point in every single game this season and are one of just two teams that have not yet lost in regulation. The Wild have a +10-goal differential. And what’s most impressive about the start of the season is they are in the midst of a seven-game road trip and are 4-0-1 so far with wins over Florida and Tampa Bay. The Wild are averaging 3.43 GF/G and have the fourth best power play unit, as they carry a 31.8% PP%. Kirill Kaprizov might, finally, have the weapons around him that will elevate his play. He leads the team in points with 13 (4/9) and is tied for the team lead in goals with Matt Boldy and Mats Zuccarello. Boldy trails Kaprizov with 10 points, and Joel Eriksson Ek has four points in five games. Their success goes further than the offense. Filip Gustavsson has been incredible this season. He is 4-0-1 and has allowed 1.4 GA/G, allowing just seven goals on 145 attempts. Gustavsson is second in the NHL in both GA/G and SV% (.952). Marc-Andre Fleury has done well in his two appearances, allowing just 2.89 GA/G so far. If the Wild keep this up, they may be worth a flier on some futures. They currently sit at +600 to win the Central Division and +1100 to win the Western Conference.

New York’s Finest

While the Jets, Wild, and Stars have been dominating the Western Conference standings, the New York Rangers seem to be the (reigning) kings of the Eastern Conference. Through seven games, they have 11 points and carry at +17 goal differential, which ranks second in the league. They have scored four or more goals in six of their seven games while going undefeated on the road, winning their first four road games. Artemi Panarin has been incredible this season, as he has tallied six goals and 13 total points in seven games, while Alexis Lafreniere (4) and Chris Kreider (5) have been scoring goals left and right. The Rangers lead the league in scoring, as they average 4.57 GF/G and rank inside the Top 10 in PP% with a 26.1% mark. Their penalty kill has been one of the best units in the NHL so far, as they rank sixth with an 87.5% PK%. When you lead the league in scoring, that is an incredible feat. But when you do it with a guy like Igor Shesterkin guarding your net, you are going to win a lot. Shesterkin has allowed just 2.16 GA/G so far this season through his six appearances. Overall, their 2.14 GA/G mark is the fourth lowest total in the NHL. The Rangers have put any wonder of regression to rest and have come out of the gates ready to assert themselves as the class of the Eastern Conference.

Gloomy Goalies

Despite playing 10 or less games this season, there have already been some goaltending performances that have resulted in lost jobs or a pending panic attack in some front offices. Tristan Jarry, Alexandar Georgiev, Connor Ingram, Adin Hill, Stuart Skinner, and the tandem in Tampa Bay, have all struggled mightily to start the season. To start it off, Jarry has been sent home by the Penguins to allow the goalie some time to collect himself and figure out what is going on with his decline in performance. Jarry has allowed 12 goals on just 60 shots for a lowly .833 SV%. This is not good for a Penguins team that wanted to give Sidney Crosby a shot at the playoffs before his playing days came to an end. Jarry is not the only goalie that is severely hindering his team’s potential. The Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers came into the season looking to be two of the best teams in the league, but they have hit quite a few road bumps thanks to their goaltending. Georgiev has allowed 4.99 GA/G in his five appearances this season, while Skinner has allowed 3.74 GA/G. Adin Hill and Connor Ingram’s squads didn’t have as high of hopes as the previously mentioned netminders, but Vegas and Utah are going to be fringe teams that will need every point they can get. So far, their goaltending has been awful, with Hill allowing 3.81 GA/G in four games and Ingram allowing 3.82 GA/G in six games. To round out the gloomy goalies list, you have Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jonas Johansson of the Tampa Bay Lightning. The two goalies have combined to allow 3.43 GA/G on a .874 SV%. However, despite their poor performances, the Lightning have managed a winning record, showing a high ceiling of success if the goalies can get going.

Money Makar

Through the first two weeks of the regular season, the league leader in points is none other than Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche. Makar has recorded 15 points on three goals and 12 assists in eight games this season while ranking 13th in the league in ice time. Makar has already made a case for him to be the Norris Trophy winner, as he now sits as the heavy favorite at -105. Not only is he dominating the Norris Trophy race, but he has also inserted his name into the Hart Trophy conversation. He currently sits at +1600 to win the award, which is the sixth best odds, and Makar is behind his teammate Nathan MacKinnon, who carries +600 odds for the award. Makar is surrounded by some of the best names in hockey like MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen (who both have 13 points each), so it is no surprise to see the blueliner leading the league in points. Get your bets in now because Makar is likely to run away with the Norris Trophy if this continues.

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Pick:	DRAW (+295)
Start:	December 3, 2024 @ 1:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free Soccer pick from Doc’s Sports for Tuesday: Take Mallorca/Barcelona to DRAW (+295) (1 p.m. EST, Tuesday, December 3) This is a very public line for Barcelona, who have been struggling lately and are not in top form. They are being lined in this matchup, however, like they are in form, and there is really great value on the draw here. Mallorca are no pushovers this season as they sit at No. 6 on the table and have earned points in 10 of 15 matches. They have won two straight, so they will enter this crucial matchup with confidence. We are not sure they have enough to earn the full three points, but Barca are vulnerable right now. They have earned only one point in their last three league matches, and that was a road draw at Celta Vigo. They dropped their last match at home, 2-1, to Las Palmas as a massive favorite. But the oddsmakers aren’t punishing them for their recent poor performance, so there is value here in the draw. The last meeting at Estadi Mallorca resulted in a 2-2 stalemate. Read More Read Less

Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup for 10/25/2024

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