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Expert MLB Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 4/6/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/5/2024

Expert MLB handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Shane Bieber Cleveland Guardians

We are now a week into the new MLB season and at the start of our 2024 Friday Roundup series. Each week we will take a deep dive into league trends and see where the money is being made or lost. The opening week has already been full of chaos, as Rhys Hoskins has become public enemy #1 in New York and the Pirates and Tigers are a combined 11-2 to start the year. No one seems to be able to get Mookie Betts out, while Mike Trout has returned to form and has three homeruns already. Without further ado, let’s get into some numbers.

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Misery in Miami

It has been an awful start to the season for The Fish. Miami was swept in back-to-back home series against Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Angels. They also lost the opener of their current six game road trip. At 0-8 overall, they have also failed to cover in any of their eight games this season, sitting in last place in the MLB. They have a -30-run differential already and have allowed 59 runs already this season, the most in the league. The pitching staff has allowed more than three runs in seven of their eight games and only one game has been decided by one run. A.J. Puk has struggled in his new starting role as he has a 9.00 ERA in two starts while rookie Max Meyer’s 3.60 ERA is the best in the rotation. Reliever Bryan Hoeing is the only Marlins pitcher to have success this season, posting a 1.17 ERA in 7.2 innings of work so far this season. The bats have not been any better. Jake Burger is the only Marlins player hitting over .267 this season, as the third baseman has a .355 AVG with two homeruns and 10 RBIs. Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Avisail Garcia are all hitting below the Mendoza Line to begin the season. If all this isn’t bad enough, their rotation took a big hit earlier this week when youngster and soon-to-be ace Eury Perez was told he needed Tommy John Surgery and would be out for the year. Tough start, is the Kim Ng curse real?

ATS & Game Total Performance

Though it is early in the season, it is always good to pay attention to the ATS and game total numbers to see who is trending. As we head into the second weekend of the season, no team remains perfect ATS, while two teams have yet to cover this season. The Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates, and St. Louis Cardinals are tied with the MLB best six covers this season. The Pirates have gone 6-1 ATS (85.7%) with the Brewers 4-1 (80%) sitting in second in Cover%. The only two teams who have yet to cover this season are the Marlins and the Mets, going a combined 0-14 ATS to start the season. The Seattle Mariners are ranked just ahead of the two NL East clubs at 1-6 ATS.

Regarding teams’ performance in regard to the game total, every team has hit the over at least once, with only the San Francisco Giants having yet to see the south side of the game total. The Giants and Marlins are tied with the most overs this season with seven, while the Dodgers and Pirates both have six. On the other side, the Houston Astros and New York Yankees both lead the MLB with five unders.

Guardians Getting Hot

The Guardians have sprinted out of the gates this season, going 6-2 to start the season and lead the MLB with a +30-run differential. Shane Bieber seems to have returned to a Cy Young-caliber pitcher through his first two starts of the season as he has allowed no earned runs in 12 innings of work and has recorded 20 strikeouts. Fellow starter Logan Allen has also done well in his first two starts of the season going 11.2 innings and posting a 2.31 ERA. Relievers Cade Smith, Tyler Beede, and Emmanuel Clase have combined to throw 11.1 innings with a 0 ERA and 17 strikeouts. What is most impressive is they did all this on the road. Cleveland opens the season on a 10-game road stretch and has scored an average of 6.3 runs so far this season. Jose Ramirez leads the team with seven RBIs, while Steven Kwan leads the team with 15 hits in just eight games. The Guardians are showing life early in the season. And if their pitching staff can keep it up, they will add some offense and win the division.

Feeble Familiarities

Last season, the Colorado Rockies finished 59-103 and were 41 games out of first place in the division. The Oakland (Sacramento, Las Vegas, The ?) Athletics went 50-112 and finished 40 games out of first place. The Chicago White Sox finished 61-101 and were 26 games out of first place. The Washington Nationals finished 71-91 and 33 games out of first place. For all these teams, they have picked up right where they left off. The A’s, Rockies, and White Sox have all won just one game while the Nationals have started off 2-4. The A’s and White Sox have combined for just 27 runs which ranks behind 19 teams. The teams have also combined to allow an average of 6.62 runs a game and have a combined record of 5-21. Looks like these teams are in for a long season.

Saturday Free Pick- Oakland Athletics @ Detroit Tigers: DET -1.5 +140

Oakland is doing their thing, losing in embarrassing fashion. They have managed just 15 runs in seven games while giving up over six a game. Their average margin of defeat is just over four runs. There is plenty of room to feel comfortable about a cover for the Tigers. Their pitching has been lights out, so look for Kenta Maeda and company to keep the Athletics lineup cold.

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