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Expert MLB Handicapping Roundup for 5/7/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/7/2024

Expert MLB handicapping roundup Andy Pages Los Angeles Dodgers

After a weekend full of intriguing matchups, it is time to get back into news and notes from around the league. The Dodgers pummeled the Braves over the weekend by sweeping the NL powerhouse and sending them to second place in the division. The Phillies have won six straight and now own the best record in baseball, while the Twins have continued to dominate and now sit 2.5 games behind the Guardians in the division standings. Shohei Ohtani has shown he is an MVP type of player even without towing the rubber, while Zack Wheeler is well on his way to winning the NL Cy Young. Today we will analyze two teams who are experiencing very different seasons while also looking at an exciting award race and how video games have come to life.

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St. Louis Woes

For the second season in a row, the Cardinals are in the basement of the NL Central division standings as they are currently 15-20 and 5.5 games out of first place. Their -33-run differential is the fourth worst mark in the National League, while their 121 runs scored on the season is last amongst NL teams and 29th in the MLB. This is a bad feat when your lineup features Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, though they are past their primes and cost the Cardinals more than they are producing. The Cardinals have lost five of their last six games while averaging just 2.6 runs over the last five contests. Arenado and Goldschmidt have combined for just four homeruns and have posted a 0.4 WAR. Willson Contreras and Masyn Winn have been the only bright spots in the Cardinals lineup, as Contreras leads the team with six homeruns and Winn is second on the team with a 1.4 WAR. St. Louis is hitting .215 as a team and ranks last in the MLB with only 23 team homeruns. As for the pitching, Sonny Gray has been phenomenal this season, posting a 0.89 ERA across 30.1 innings and leads the team with 38 strikeouts. Outside of Gray, the pitching staff has not fared well. Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz have a combined 4.71 ERA. Being only five games under .500 is a miracle for the Cardinals, and it is time to count this team out; their season is going to crash and burn. Their projected win total is still 79.5 games, despite them pacing only 70 wins, and it is bound to get worse.

Amazing A’s

On a more positive note, the Oakland Athletics are enjoying a better-than-expected season as they are 17-19 and sit in third place in the AL West standings, four games better than the Houston Astros. Yes, technically this team is having a losing season. However, at this point of the year, paired with all the turmoil this organization is going through, being only two games under .500 is a huge win. Before losing their last two games, the Athletics won six in a row while holding their opponents to just 2.33 runs per game while Oakland averaged 7.33 runs. Mason Miller is looking like the best closer in the game right now, as he has eight saves on the year and a 1.26 ERA over 12 appearances so far, while Paul Blackburn is making himself an attractive trade target as the veteran has a 3.00 ERA over 42 innings. Oakland is also 21-16 ATS this season. They are in the midst of an AL West gauntlet portion of their schedule, with four games against Texas and then seven straight road games against Seattle and Houston, but these Athletics may be better than we thought.

Video Game Victories

As we all know, the Dodgers broke the MLB with all the offseason acquisitions. And after a slow start, this team has found their groove and looks to be the new face of baseball. The Dodgers have won five in a row and are 12-2 over their last 14 games with a +61-run differential in that span. As of now, Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts are off to MVP-caliber starts to the season. Ohtani leads the league with a .370 average, with Betts right behind him with a .356 mark. Ohtani’s 11 homeruns also lead the league. Ohtani and Betts are joined by Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez to give the Dodgers four of the Top 10 leaders in RBIs. Oh, and I have not even mentioned future Hall of Famer Freddie Freeman, who has a 0.8 WAR and is hitting .292. Max Muncy is also having a better-than-expected start to the campaign as he has eight homeruns and 22 RBIs to clean up what the previous five missed. As if that was not enough offense, the Dodgers recently called up Andy Pages, who has a .902 OPS with four homeruns in just 18 games so far. Outside of the dominant lineup, the Dodgers have a pitching staff that is incredibly dominant. Newcomers Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have combined for a 2.81 ERA over 84 innings with 105 strikeouts. James Paxton was a low-risk acquisition that is having a huge payoff, as he has a 3.06 ERA over six starts. This rotation also just welcomed Walker Buehler back, while Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May are sidelined with injuries but are expected back soon. The Dodgers are a real life, video game team.

Pitching Prodigies

Speaking of Yamamoto, the NL Rookie of the Year race is already off to an exciting start, with three pitchers who appear ready to dominate the league for years to come. Shota Imanaga and Jared Jones join Yamamoto as the three favorites to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. Imanaga (+300) leads the way, while Yamamoto (+380), and Jones (+460) follow. Imanaga has had the most impressive start, as he has posted a 0.78 ERA across 34.2 innings with just four walks in that span. After struggling in his first start, Yamamoto has lived up to expectations and has a 2.91 ERA with a 11.1 K/9 ratio. Finally, Jones has come out of nowhere for the Pirates pitching staff and is a strikeout machine with 52 strikeouts over 41 innings while also posting a 2.63 ERA. This is an interesting race to pay attention to.

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