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Expert MLB Handicapping Roundup for 5/24/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/24/2024

Expert MLB handicapping roundup Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Before we head into the weekend, let’s take a look at what has been going on around the league. The Philadelphia Phillies have continued their torrid start to the season and are coming off a series sweep over the defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers. The Mets struggles continue as they are now 15 games out of first place and seven games below .500, and the Cincinnati Reds now find themselves in the NL Central basement as they are 10 games below .500 and are 8.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. Kyle Tucker has continued to do it all for the Astros, while Marcell Ozuna is on pace for the best season of his career. As we near the summer months, it is time to identify which teams have true playoff potential and reevaluate our award winner futures picks.

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Fall From Grace

The defending World Champs have not only been swept by the Phillies, but they have gone just 2-10 in their last 12 games, are under .500 for the first time in Bruce Bochy’s tenure as manager, and are now three games behind the Seattle Mariners in the division. Now, not all of this is due to poor play, as the Rangers have a lot of injuries plaguing the roster right now. Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, Brock Burke, Austin Pruitt, Josh Sborz, Shane Greene, Wyatt Langford, and Josh Jung are all currently on the injured list as of this article. What is unfortunate for Texas is they would likely be running away with the division if they were healthy. Seattle is the only team in the AL West with a winning record, but they have a -4-run differential and Houston has a 22-28 record. Despite the injury bug, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia have been in the lineup for almost every game. However, the three-headed monster at the top of the lineup has been held back because of Seager’s slow start to the year, and the three sluggers have combined for a mere .772 OPS. Not what we expected to see from the defending champs to start the year.

Do note, Scherzer, deGrom, Gray, Eovaldi, and Mahle are scheduled to return this summer. And if they live up to their names, the Rangers will have the best rotation in baseball and have a few expendable prospects they can use to add another elite bat. Despite the slow start, I am taking Texas to win the AL West (+290)

Don’t Be Fooled

Seattle Mariners: 27-24 / 1st in AL West

I wouldn’t go as far as labeling the Mariners as frauds, but there are some numbers that should kill the hype. First, they are the only team in the division with a winning record (at just 27-24), they have scored the least amount of runs in the division (don’t forget the Athletics and Angels are in the same division), and they are just one of two teams in the MLB with a winning record despite having a negative run differential. Shortstop Dylan Moore leads the lineup with a 1.8 WAR, and a lot of that has to do with his six homeruns and six stolen bases. In a lineup that features Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, and Jorge Polanco, Moore should not be the leader in WAR and OPS. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, and George Kirby form a solid first four in the pitching rotation, but the Mariners need more offensive production. Until this team adds a bat or two, they will be lucky to steal a wild card.

Here Comes a Run

Chicago Cubs: 27-24 / 2nd in NL Central

The other team with a winning record, but a negative run differential, is the Chicago Cubs (-1 on the year). However, I have differing expectations for them than I do with Seattle. The Cubs have not been healthy all season and have lost Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, and Justin Steele for some time and now may lose Adbert Alzolay for some time. Chicago does rank 21st in team OPS and 19th in homeruns, but there are a lot of underperforming bats that are sure to get going. Suzuki and Bellinger were both off to good starts before their injuries and will return to form as the season progresses, while Dansby Swanson, Christopher Morel, and Ian Happ are all hitting .223 or less, which is sure to change as well. If those bats can come alive and an addition is made, the Cubs will become a team that can upend the Phillies, Dodgers, and Braves in October. Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad have been elite. And now that Steele is back, those three could beat any lineup in a series. The Cubs finally have some depth, and if their stars can return to expectations, the Cubs should run away with the NL Central.

“Team” Awards Races

National League MVP – Mookie Betts vs. Shohei Ohtani

As of this article, the two players with the best odds to win the NL MVP are Mookie Betts (+170) and Shohei Ohtani (+350). Betts is tied for the best WAR in the MLB at 3.5, while also ranking sixth in AVG and OPS, second in OBP, and third in hits. He also anchors the infield for the Dodgers and is capable of playing in the outfield at an elite level. Ohtani, on the other hand, in a year where he is solely focused on his bat, has a 3.2 WAR and leads the MLB in AVG, OPS and total bases. He also ranks second in doubles, fifth in homeruns, and 13th in RBIs. Either player is deserving, and it is only fitting the NL MVP comes from a real-life video game roster.

My Pick: Mookie Betts +170 / After falling just short last year, Betts will run away with this award if he stays healthy and the Dodgers keep winning.

American League MVP – Juan Soto vs. Aaron Judge

On the American League side, we have the same circumstance as teammates have the top two odds at the AL MVP. Though it is far from a two-horse race like it is in the National League, Juan Soto (+300) and Aaron Judge (+320) lead the pack. Both players have appeared in all 52 games this season for the Yankees and have been producing at a very high level. Soto is hitting .312 with 13 homeruns, 41 RBIs, 34 walks, and has a 2.5 WAR. Judge is tied for third in the MLB with 15 homeruns and his 1.026 OPS is fourth best. Though Kyle Tucker, Gunnar Henderson, and Bobby Witt Jr. all have a legit shot at the award, it is hard to see anyone, but Soto win the award. Best player on the best team in the American League.

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