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Expert MLB Handicapping Roundup for 5/1/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 5/1/2024

Expert MLB handicapping roundup Mookie Betts Los Angeles Dodgers

We are coming off another incredible night of baseball that saw four of the five best teams in the league take a loss and one that saw the Athletics extend their win streak all the way to three games. The Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, and Guardians combined to go 0-4 last night but had a combined -5 run differential in those games. Jose Abreu was sent back to Spring Training facilities, and Mike Trout, after an MVP caliber start, is now set to have knee surgery and miss ‘extended time.’ As always, let’s take a look at some good bets and trends around the league.

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AL Central Update

As it stands now, the AL Central might be the most competitive division in the MLB. After entering the year as seemingly one of the worst collection of teams, outside of the Chicago White Sox, there have been a lot of surprises. The Cleveland Guardians are tied with the Baltimore Orioles for the best record in the American League, while the Kansas City Royals sit two games out of first with a 18-13 record. The Detroit Tigers (17-13) and Minnesota Twins (16-13) closely follow. The Guardians and Royals are tied with the Atlanta Braves for an MLB-leading +45 run differential on the season, while the Twins have won nine straight and the Tigers have gone 10-4 away from home. Despite the overall success of the division, the Guardians have proven to be one of the few complete teams in the league. Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez have been huge for the club, combining for a 2.4 WAR and 26 RBIs while Jose Ramirez continues to be one of the best hitters in the league, and Josh Naylor is leading the club with seven homeruns and has a .915 OPS. As for the pitching, they already lost Shane Bieber for the year, and the starters have been average at best. However, this is one of the best shutdown bullpens in the MLB. If the Guardians can add a bat and snag a starter, this team might win it all.

Division Winner Odds:

Cleveland Guardians +130

Minnesota Twins +185

Detroit Tigers +450

Kansas City Royals +600

My Pick: Cleveland Guardians +130

Phantastic Phillies

Look away Braves fans, the Philadelphia Phillies are just a half of a game out of first place. The Phillies rotation has been the best in baseball so far, and it isn’t close. They have two pitchers ranked in the Top Five in ERA, and their names aren’t Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. Nola ranks 36th and Wheeler 11th, but Ranger Suarez is the league leader with a 1.32 ERA, while Spencer Turnbull ranks third with a 1.39 mark. With three starters clinging to sub-2.00 ERA’s, and the other two keeping it below 3.70, the Phillies look like they can shut any lineup down on any given day. As a team they rank seventh in ERA, fourth in WHIP, and second in quality starts. Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are off to exceptionally fast starts, with the two combining for a 3.0 WAR and a .356 average. Bohm’s 30 RBIs is the second most in the MLB. The Phillies sit at +270 to win the NL East, +650 to win the NL Pennant, and +1400 of winning the World Series. It’s only May, but these are numbers to follow for such a dominant club.

Mookie Magic

Though his teammate, Shohei Ohtani, may be the best player in the league (when healthy), Mookie Betts definitely deserves some credit and may be right behind Ohtani. Before we jump into the numbers, it is worth noting that Betts can play three positions at an above average level, and he is finally getting his legs under him on the base paths. Betts leads the league in hits with 46, in average with a .368 mark, and with a 1.101 OPS. After just one month of games, he has a 3.1 WAR, has six homeruns, leads the team with eight stolen bases, and is tied for the team lead with 23 RBIs. That’s all while playing his new position as captain of the infield. Mookie Betts can play, and Vegas knows it. He is the heavy favorite for winning the NL MVP at +145. Ohtani follows at +1000, and last year’s winner Ronald Acuna sits at +1100.

AL MVP Race

The AL MVP race is much closer after the first month of games. Juan Soto is the current favorite at +220, as he is hitting .325 with eight homeruns, 25 RBIs, and a .911 OPS. On his heels are youngsters Bobby Witt Jr. (+420) and Gunnar Henderson (+460). Witt is tied for the AL lead in WAR (2.1) and is hitting .315 with four homeruns, 17 RBIs, and nine stolen bases. Henderson, on the other hand, is tied for the AL lead in homeruns with 10 and is hitting .291 with 24 RBIs and six stolen bases. Yordan Alvarez (+1400) and Aaron Judge (+1700) round out the Top Five. Soto seems to be the safest pick with the protection he has in the Yankees lineup and the short porch in right field, but I really like Gunnar Henderson to be a surprising winner this year. He plays on the best team in the American League and if he keeps up the pace, he will be a 30/30 lock and could hit close to 50 homeruns.

My Pick: Gunnar Henderson +460

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