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Expert MLB Handicapping Roundup for 4/23/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/23/2024

Expert MLB handicapping roundup Tyler Glasnow Los Angeles Dodgers

As we near the end of the first full month of baseball, there are already many storylines to follow as the 2024 campaign continues to unfold. The Cleveland Guardians are sitting atop the league standings with a 16-6 record and are followed by the Atlanta Braves (15-6) and Baltimore Orioles (15-7). Marcell Ozuna has continued his torrid pace to start the year and leads the MLB in homeruns and RBIs, while Shohei Ohtani leads the league with a .368 AVG and 35 hits. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff have been the best to date as they have a 2.52 ERA and are the only team to not allow more than 60 runs. However, not all have fared well in the new season, so let’s take a look at who has stumbled, as well as a sleeper Cy Young candidate, the stolen base race, and the most intense division race in the MLB.

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Weary White Sox

The White Sox set a rather unfortunate record after last night’s 7-0 loss to the Minnesota Twins as it was their eighth time being shut out in only 22 games. The offense has been without Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiminez, but it has been historically bad. They rank last, as a team, in OPS with a mere .549 mark, in homeruns with just 11, and in runs with 45. The 29th ranked Athletics have scored 20 more runs than the White Sox. Andrew Vaughn and Andrew Benintendi lead the club with 76 at-bats and are both hitting .158 and have combined for five RBIs and a -1.8 WAR. The pitching staff hasn’t performed any better, as they rank 28th with a 5.09 ERA and they have given up the third most homeruns this season. Their -78-run differential is 21 runs worse than the Colorado Rockies, who have the next largest, negative, run differential. To paint a better picture, the 3-19 White Sox are on pace to lose 139 games this season.

Stolen Base Race

Last season, we saw Ronald Acuna exploit the new rules on his way to stealing over 70 bases. Acuna, with 10 stolen bases to start the season, is on pace to steal surpass his total last season and record 77 bases. However, he is not the league leader, and it’s getting crowded at the top. Elly De La Cruz is the current league leader with 11 and is followed by Acuna, Lane Thomas, and Brice Turang, who have 10, with Jarren Duran and Corbin Carroll following with eight swipes. Acuna, without question, is the best bat on this list. And other than maybe Carroll, he will reach base more frequently than the others, thus giving him more opportunities to steal a base. With that in mind, it is no surprise to see Acuna (+160) as the current favorite to defend his stolen base crown. However, Caroll (+1200) and De La Cruz (+440) both pose a real threat to dethrone Acuna. De La Cruz has the best raw speed in the league, while Carroll has found himself near the top of the list despite a slow start at the plate.

Terrific Tyler

Tyler Glasnow is off to a terrific start and is so far proving to be a great acquisition despite his health concerns. Glasnow is the ace in the Dodgers rotation that is plagued by injuries. Glasnow has been the only reliable starter for the Dodgers, as he leads the team in innings pitched, strikeouts, and WAR. He also has a 0.95 WHIP across his six starts, four of which have been quality starts. His 44 strikeouts lead the league, while he is tied for second in quality starts. He is also one of just 19 pitchers with a sub 1.00 WHIP who have thrown more than 20 innings. When healthy, Glasnow might have the best arsenal in the league, and he is proving that with a fantastic start to the season. According to Vegas, he trails only Zack Wheeler (+420) and Freddy Peralta (+500) in the NL CY Young race. At +800 and the sample to start the season, Tyler Glasnow has tremendous value as a future CY Young pick.

Houston Horrors

It has not been a kind start to the season for the Houston Astros, who are nearing the end of their championship window. They have already been swept three times this season, out of seven series, already have two losing streaks exceeding three games, and are coming off a series loss to the Washington Nationals. They are the second worst team against the spread this season, covering in just eight of their 23 games, and sit in last place in the AL West. The biggest reason for their slow start is their pitching. They rank 29th in team ERA at 5.10 and in WHIP with a 1.51 mark. Ronel Blanco and Cristian Javier both have ERA’s less than 1.55 over a combined 50.1 innings, but J.P. France and Hunter Brown have a 7.08 and 9.68 ERAs and the bullpen has struggled as well. The offense is still one of the best in the MLB, but if their pitching can’t find their stride, the Astros may miss out on the playoffs.

AL Beast

While the Braves/Phillies, Rangers/Mariners, and Dodgers/Padres will make for some entertaining division races, there is no deeper division than the AL East. As of now, the AL East division does not have a team with a losing record as the 12-12 Tampa Bay Rays sit in the basement. The Baltimore Orioles lead the New York Yankees by a half a game, while Toronto and Boston are just 2.5 games out of the division lead. The Red Sox and Yankees both rank in the top five in ERA, while Baltimore ranks in the top five in nearly every major offensive category and has a rotation led by Corbin Burnes. The Yankees are the current favorites to win the division at +105, but with the question of durability lingering over them, the Baltimore Orioles at +180 is my pick to win the AL East. However, it won’t be easy, and all five teams are an acquisition or two away from being heavy favorites to win it all.

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