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Expert MLB Handicapping Roundup for 4/15/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 4/15/2024

Expert MLB handicapping roundup Mookie Betts Los Angeles Dodgers

As we enter the third week of the MLB season, there is plenty to discuss. There have been a multitude of pitching injuries that have really changed the outlook for their clubs. Shane Bieber, Spencer Strider, and Eury Perez headline a list of top tier pitchers that will miss the remainder of the season, severely altering their club’s potential on the campaign. At 12-4, the New York Yankees have the best record in baseball, while the 10-6 Kansas City Royals lead the MLB with a +37-run differential. The Houston Astros are off to a dreadful start, going 6-11, while the Chicago White Sox are pacing 120 losses on the season with a 2-13 starts.

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He's Back

Mike Trout is off to a hot start in 2024, as the future Hall of Famers looks to not only maintain productivity but also his health. In 15 games, Trout has six homeruns and a 1.044 OPS. He is on one of the worst lineups in the league and has only eight RBIs, but the star is back to performing at a high level. Trout has not played in more than 119 games in each of the last three seasons thanks to injuries. And though the power is still there, Trout has almost completely abandoned stealing bases as he has just eight stolen bases since 2020. Before 2020, Trout was averaging 31.67 homeruns and 22.2 stolen bases; In 2024, Trout is on pace for 64 homeruns and 21 stolen bases. As of now, Trout has the best odds to win AL Comeback Player of the Year at +400, he is +1000 for AL MVP, and +850 to be the leagues homerun leader. He’s back, performing like an MVP, but is his time with the Angels running out?

Homerun Leaderboard

Speaking of homeruns, despite pacing over 60 homeruns, Trout is not leading the league in homeruns. Marcell Ozuna and Tyler O’Neill are tied for the league lead in homeruns with seven, followed by Trout, Mookie Betts, and Pete Alonso with six. O’Neill has the best HR/AB ratio, as his seven homeruns have come in only 46 Abs, while the other four players have had 57 or more. Trout and Alonso are the only current players in the top five, and they also rank in the top five best odds to be the league leader in homeruns. Aaron Judge at +370 is the heavy favorite thanks to the hitter friendly park he plays in, with Yordan Alvarez sitting behind him at +600. Alonso (+750) and Trout (+850) are third and fourth on the list, and Matt Olson (+1100) round out the top five. Alvarez has four round-trippers on the year, while Judge and Olson have three. Ozuna has the 11th best odds at +3000, while O’Neill is 14th with +4100. Ozuna hit 40 last season and is picking up right where he left off. As a full-time DH, he should be considered as a valuable option to win the homerun race.

MVP Mookie

No one is off to a hotter start than Mookie Betts. His six homeruns to start the year total more than the number of swings and misses he has so far. He leads the league with 20 runs scored and a 1.8 WAR, is slashing .357/.477/.686 with an OPS of 1.162 and has 16 RBIs in 18 games. Add the offense to the star’s capability of above average defense at three different positions, and you have yourself the league’s MVP. Yes, it is early, and many things can change, but Betts is arguably the best player in the league. And at +300, he leads the pack of NL MVP favorites. He is the best player on the best team with Freeman and Ohtani behind him in the lineup. Take him while he is still at + money, the value is tremendous.

Red Flash

No team has stolen more bases than the Cincinnati Reds. With 31 stolen bases as a team, the Reds are averaging more than two swipes a game and have five players who rank in the top 15 in the league in the category. Youngster Elly De La Cruz leads the club and is tied for the second most stolen bases in the MLB with six, as he is followed by Stuart Fairchild with five, while Jake Fraley, Will Benson, and Bubba Thompson all have four. Santiago Espinal and Spencer Steer both rank just outside the top 20 with three stolen bases. At this rate, the Reds would have seven players with more than 30 stolen bases, and that is without speedster Matt McClain. And the club as a whole is on pace for over 330 stolen bases. The 1911 Giants and 1976 Athletics both recorded over 340 stolen bases. Can this year’s Reds team get there?

De La Cruz currently has the fourth best odds of being the league’s stolen base leader at +850, as he trails Ronald Acuna Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., and Corbin Carroll.

Agony in ATL?

Heading into the season, the Braves were projected to win more than 100 games, be the favorites in the NL East, and look to be one of the few teams who could match up with the Dodgers on paper. However, the seemingly inevitable UCL bug caught up to Spencer Strider, who is now out for the season, and the Braves have been without starting catcher Sean Murphy for the last week with an oblique strain. At 9-5, the Braves are still projected to win more than 100 games, and they have a two-game leader in the NL East. However, the rotation took a huge hit, and there are not a lot of internal options. A rotation led by Max Fried, Chris Sale, and Charlie Morton could get the job done in the postseason, but Fried and Sale have injury concerns of their own and Morton is 40. The lineup is still one of the best, if not the best, in the MLB, but the questions marks surrounding the pitching staff is a real concern as we have yet to enter the summer months. The Mets and Phillies are now even more excited about the opportunity to usurp the Braves in the NL East, while postseason success hasn’t happened for Atlanta since their 2021 World Series run. A trade for Paul Blackburn or JP Sears? Sign Trevor Bauer? Promote Bryce Elder or A.J. Smith-Shawver? The Braves have options, but they need to get to work on solidifying the Strider-less rotation and keep their World Series hopes alive.

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