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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 3/9/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/8/2024

College basketball handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Jamal Mashburn New Mexico

As we head into the final weekend of the regular season, it is time to start getting pumped for March Madness. With Selection Sunday just nine days away, it’s do or die for a lot of teams around the nation as they vie for a spot in the most coveted playoff in all sports. Some conference tournaments have already gotten underway, while there are a few games this weekend that are important for seeding as most of the bigger conference tournaments will start next week. With all eyes on the tournaments ahead, it’s time to start studying the teams who will likely be featured in our brackets.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Final Four Fantasy

Last year’s defending champion, the UConn Huskies, were a four seed to start the tournament, while the Final Four also featured higher seeds like San Diego State (5-seed), Florida Atlantic (9-seed), and Miami (5-seed). The average seeding of the four teams was just under six, thus showing a high seed is far from a guarantee. Right now, three of the four projected 1-seeds have the best odds to make it to the Final Four, UConn (+110), Purdue (+160), and Houston (+160), while Tennessee (+210) and Arizona (+240) round out the top five. Using the latest Bracketology update, below are the teams sitting at the four, five, and nine seeding and their odds:

4-Seeds: Kentucky (+750), Alabama (+800), Illinois (+650), and San Diego State (+1900)

5-Seeds: Clemson (+2800), Washington State (+2000), BYU (+1600), and Auburn (+500)

9-Seeds: Mississippi State (+2300), Nevada (+3800), Michigan State (+1900), and Colorado State (+4100)

Other teams with notable odds: TCU (+2800), South Carolina (+2000), Wisconsin (+2800), and Grand Canyon (+9500).

Of the listed teams, there is plenty to study, but the list could feature some bracket busters. Kentucky has been a favorite play so far, with juiced odds thanks to a poor showing in the calendar year. But they have heated up lately as they are 4-0 with a +49-point differential. The Wisconsin Badgers are another team to keep a close eye on as they were ranked as high as sixth this season but struggled through February. This Badgers team has a legit case to make a run in both their conference tournament and in March Madness.

Since 2000, the average sum of the Final Four seeding is just under 10 at 9.7. So, staying with the numbers, here is what I could see happening: Kentucky (4-seed), South Carolina (6-seed), UConn (1-seed), and Arizona (1-seed) for a total of 12. 

Grand Canyon

The Lopes might be the best team with the “potential bracket buster” label. Grand Canyon is 26-4 on the year and has a big win on their resume against a ranked San Diego State squad. One of their three losses was to South Carolina, who has been one of the biggest surprises in the SEC. However, they did lose back-to-back games two weeks ago, one being a Quad3 loss, which hurts their seeding. However, they currently project to be a 12 seed in the latest Bracketology update and are a near lock to win their conference tournament. The Lopes roster features a trio of top scorers with Tyon Grant-Foster (19.4 PPG), Gabe McGlothan (13.9 PPG), and Ray Harrison (13.5 PPG), but the defense is the real strength of this team as they allow just 67.2 PPG and keep opponents to a 40.6 FG%. The defense allows Grand Canyon plenty of time to get going on the offensive side of the ball, and they have done a solid job on the boards this season, with a +6.2 RPG differential, which leads the conference. This is a veteran squad, and they may very well be the next big time bracket buster.

Bubble Watch

With teams wrapping up the regular season, below is a good look at the bubble to see who sits as the last four in and why they get in, or don’t:

Last Four In

Seton Hall Pirates 19-11 (12-7)

The Pirates rank 4th in one of the best conferences in the nation. Their resume features big wins against UConn, Providence, Marquette, St. John’s (twice), and Villanova. However, they are just 9-10 against Quad1 and Quad2 schools, while also having a Quad3 loss weighing them down. The Pirates lost to every single significant nonconference opponent. They need to make a deep run in the Big East tournament in order to make it to the tournament. As of now, the Pirates will not make the tournament.

New Mexico Lobos 22-8 (10-7)

The Lobos are in the best mid-major conference, the Mountain West, and have performed well. Their only out of conference loss was on the road to a ranked Saint Mary’s team. The resume includes some big wins including double-digit victories over ranked opponents, as they knocked off the Aztecs by 18 and Utah State by 13. They are also 2-0 against Nevada and have another ranked win against Colorado State. The Lobos will be a victim to the name of the conference before they are labeled as an undeserving team. A win or two in the conference tournament and they should be in.

Final Four: +3800

Virginia Cavaliers 21-9 (12-7)

Despite their solid record, the Cavaliers are just 2-4 over their last six games and have a negative point differential of -73 points in that span. They have one last game against Georgia Tech tomorrow, and a win, and a Pitt loss, gives them the third seed in the ACC Tournament. The Virginia resume is short on big wins but not on blowout losses. All nine of their losses have been by double digits, with Wisconsin, Memphis, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Duke, all beating them by 20 or more. They may get in with just one win in the conference tournament, but I would not have them going far in March Madness as they are 2-6 against Quad1 opponents.

ACC Tournament Winner: +1300

Final Four: +7000 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 18-12 (10-9)

As for the Demon Deacons, they too have way more losses than wins that are worth talking about. They have struggled to a 7-11 record against Quad1 and Quad2 opponents and have a Quad3 loss. The team’s only win against a ranked team was a four-point home victory against Duke back on February 24. I do not see this team making the tournament or performing well in the conference clash.

ACC Tournament Winner: +950

Final Four: + 6500

Saturday Free Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks- Over 163.5 -110

Alabama and Arkansas don’t play defense, and the Crimson Tide offense is one of the best and most explosive in the nation. The two teams have combined for 44 overs in 60 games. The over has hit in 15 of Arkansas’ 19 home games this season. You don’t need much more than that.

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