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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 3/2/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/1/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Fousseyni Traore BYU Cougars

Selection Sunday is just 16 days away, and continued chaos is on the forecast. Purdue, Houston, and UConn seem like locks on the top line, with Arizona projecting to lock up the fourth top seed. The Big 12 has continued their dominant season and has a nation-leading nine teams featured in the latest version of Bracketology, followed by the SEC with seven, and the Big Ten and Mountain West follow with six. With the regular season winding down, and some conference tournaments starting next week, let’s take a look at some sleepers, dive into a conference tournament race, and see some consistent regular-season trends to add a few dollars before March Madness.

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Quiet Contender

One of the most underrated teams has been Big 12 newcomer, BYU. The Cougars have gone 20-8 (8-7) this season and currently rank 5th in the conference standings and have been in and out of the Top 25 all season. The currently rank 10th in the nation in NET rating and have notable wins against Iowa State, San Diego State, Baylor, and have a big road win against Kansas. They have three games remaining, with two home games (TCU and Oklahoma State) and a tough road game against Iowa State. They lead the conference with 82.6 PPG and rank second in RPG with 39.9. Their ability to control the boards has been a difference-maker in the tougher games, as their +7.0 RPG differential leads the Big 12. The Cougars are also active beyond the arc, with a +12.2 3PA differential and a +4.6% 3P%, showcasing their ability to extend their leads or get themselves back in the game. The knock on BYU is their performance on the road. They are just 3-6 on the road, and they do have two Quad2 losses, which will affect their seeding unless they make a run in the conference tournament. Right now, BYU sits as a seven seed and can be a dangerous team to face.

Gaels Rising

Saint Mary’s is 24-6 (15-0) and is leading the West Coast Conference and currently ranks #17 in the Top 25. After an 8-6 start to the season, the Gaels have won 16 straight games. Their resume includes wins against New Mexico, Colorado State, Gonzaga, and San Francisco (twice). They do have two Quad2 and two Quad3 losses this season, which will limit what they can do in terms of elevating their seeding. However, this is one of the most dominating teams in the nation and has not lost since December 23, and they do it all with defense. Their defense ranks second nationally in allowed PPG at just 58.1 PPG, trailing only Houston. Opponents shoot a lowly 38.7% against the Gaels, while Saint Mary’s cleans up the poor shots and has maintained a +11.8 RPG differential. The offense isn’t all bad, as they average 74.8 PPG while shooting 47% from the floor and 35% from beyond the arc. The Gales have one more regular season game tomorrow against Gonzaga on their home court. This is a big game, but Saint Mary’s is primed to sweep the West Coast Conference in the regular season and may not lose again.

Money Makers

When it comes to covers, there are five teams who have covered in 20 or more games this season. The Minnesota Golden Gophers lead the way with a 23-4-1 record ATS, while Arkansas State, Cal State Northridge, Nevada, and Stony Brook have notched 20 covers in. Iowa State is another power six team to keep an eye on, as they have gone 19-8-1 ATS in the toughest conference in the nation. On the flip side, there are four teams across the nation that have failed to cover in 20 or more of their games. The Pacific Tigers are 6-22 ATS this season, while Detroit Mercy, Michigan, and Old Dominion all have failed to cover in 21 of their games. The Arkansas Razorbacks and Missouri Tigers are two SEC teams who have struggled ATS, going a combined 17-38 ATS this season.

The league leaders on either side of the game total have been making money all season. Alabama and Wright State lead the nation with 21 overs each. Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, and Queens (NC) all fell behind with 20 overs in 28 games this season. The south side of the game total hasn’t been as profitable, with no team hitting the under in 20 or more games, which has been a common theme for these stat groups. Maryland, Rutgers, East Carolina, and Vermont have hit the under 19 times, leading the nation.

Big East Tourney Preview

Though they aren’t the Big 12, the Big East Tournament is going to be exciting. Right now, UConn is the projected conference tournament winner at -125. Marquette is right behind them at +320, with Creighton rounding out the top three at +430. UConn has dominated the conference, going 15-2 throughout their Big East schedule, with both being on the road. Marquette is 13-4 in the conference, with a 28-point loss to UConn. Creighton is 12-6 in the conference, with a 19-point victory over UConn at home, with a match against Marguette at home tomorrow. Though the seeding isn’t locked up, this conference tournament is going to be chaotic.

My Pick- I think the chaos in this tournament results in an unexpected winner. I really like Marquette at +320 as no path to the finals will be easy and UConn and Creighton fall early.

Saturday Free Pick: #24 Florida Gators @ #18 South Carolina Gamecocks / South Carolina -1.5  (-104)

I love the Gamecocks -1.5 in this one. They have dominated on their home floor this season and should edge out the win in this game. Florida isn’t strong on the road, and the Gamecocks defense, with the help from their fans, should leave the Gators shooters rattled. It will be important for South Carolina to not allow a lot of second chance looks, but their defense should make enough of a difference in this one.

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