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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 2/3/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/2/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Zach Edey Purdue

In another crazy week of college basketball, we saw a handful of ranked teams fall to their unranked opponents, including #3 North Carolina, #5 Tennessee, #10 Kentucky, #19 New Mexico, and #6 Wisconsin. As chaos is common this time of year, we are headed into another crazy weekend slate that includes five Top 25 matchups, with another six ranked teams on the road: more on this later. Before we head into the weekend, let me share three noteworthy and moneymaking trends to pay attention to as we enter the back-half of conference play and highlight all the chaos we will see in the coming days.

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Phoenix Go Green ATS

Color has been a common theme and correlating factor between the nation’s top two performers ATS this season. Earlier in the year, I told you just how the Minnesota Golden Gophers were the golden pick for covering and they have maintained their success covering 16 of their games, which is tied for the most covers in the nation. They are tied with the Green Bay Phoenix, who have also covered in 16 of their games this season. Minnesota has the slight edge, covering 16 of 20, whereas Green Bay has covered in 16 of 22 games. The Phoenix are 15-9 overall and currently sit atop the Horizon League with a .5 game lead over Oakland and Youngstown State with a 10-3 conference record. After a slow start, they are 10-2 over their last 12 games and have covered in 11 of those games. They have covered four of their five conference road games, with four more away games left, including two consecutive matchups. Green Bay’s numbers are actually better than they appear. They do lead the Horizon League in defense, allowing just 66.2 PPG, and they keep their opponents to a lowly 29.7% 3P%, but their offensive ranks 9th (of 11) in PPG as they average just 68.6 a game. However, in conference play they have been averaging 74 PPG and they shoot 35% from beyond the arc. They may not be special, but they love to cover the spread.

Wright Place, Right Time

Unintentionally keeping it in the Horizon League, there is another league leader coming out of this conference. Green Bay has been successful ATS all year, while the Wright State Raiders lead the league with the most over game totals. They have hit the over in 16 of their 21 games. Like Green Bay, this team isn’t flooded with stars, but they have proven they can score against anybody. Averaging 85.7 PPG, the Raiders rank 9th in the country in this category, while leading the country in FG% as they cash in on 53.4% of their tries. Additionally, they rank 14th in 3P% and 27th in FT%. Wright State has eclipsed 100 points five times this year. If that wasn’t enough to support their frequent overs, their defense is almost nonexistent. They rank 355th in PPG allowed as opponents have averaged 81.4 PPG against the Raiders this season. Their games have averaged 167.1 PPG this season; no one can slow their offense and seemingly anyone can score on their defense.

Hidden Gem?

I usually highlight a dark horse every week, but this week I am changing that title to a hidden gem as this squad has proven themselves time and again and deserve some respect. That team? The TCU Horned Frogs. They are ranked 25th in the AP Poll and have four Quad1 wins this season. They had a bad loss against Nevada back in December, but the Wolfpack were 11-1 at the time. If you take that loss away, the Horned Frogs four losses have been by an average of 3.75 points, with three of those losses being to ranked opponents. The other was a road overtime loss. This team, riding a three-game win streak, is 5th in the B12 with a 5-3 conference record, a game behind Houston, who leads the conference at 6-2. However, the Horned Frogs are in a great position to win the conference title. They currently hold the tiebreaker against Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. With 10 conference games left, four against ranked opponents, TCU is primed for a claim to the regular season title. Right now, despite being just one game out and holding important tiebreakers, TCU is sitting at +1900 to win the B12. Regardless of the B12 regular season outcome, these Horned Frogs can make deep runs in the B12 Conference Tournament and again in March Madness. They have +2000 odds of making the Final Four and +7500 odds to win the National Championship. Keep your eye on the Frogs.

The Weekend Ahead

As stated earlier, we have a packed weekend slate on deck. After an already exciting week of basketball, we have five Top 25 matchups, and four of those are Top 10 matchups. A win for Kansas over Houston will put them in first place in the Big 12, while UNC will look to extend their ACC lead with a win over Duke. On Sunday, the top two teams in the Big 10 will meet in Madison as the Boilermakers try to hand the Badgers back-to-back conference losses. We also have a handful of ranked teams that are on upset alert as they travel to hostile territory to take on some formidable opponents. No. 16 Auburn has to head to Oxford, MS to take on the 18-3 Ole Miss Rebels, #23 Oklahoma has to travel Orlando to take on a UCF team that beat Kansas at home, and #17 Utah State has to play a 16-5 San Diego State squad that needs a big win to enhance their resume. Buckle up, this weekend is going to be fun.

Saturday Free Pick – UCONN Huskies @ St. John’s Red Storm – UCONN -5.5

The Huskies beat the Red Storm at home by four, and now on the road the spread sits at 5.5. The Huskies are 4-2 ATS on the road this season, but they have an average point differential of -2 for their conference road games. However, this Huskies team is deep and they can score. St. John’s will be riled up for an upset bid in front of their home fans, which will lead them to be aggressive. And as a team that runs up the turnover mark, they may be more prone continued carelessness. The Huskies will grab a statement win.

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