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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 2/17/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/16/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Zach Edey Purdue

Another crazy week of college hoops has passed by with multiple storylines. Farleigh Dickinson’s squad was stuck in an elevator, delaying the game, Bill Self was ejected after a bad loss at Texas Tech, Ohio State has moved on from their coach, and four unranked teams took down their Top 25 ranked opponents. But in perhaps the biggest news of the week, the Detroit Mercy Titans have claimed victory number one on the season, improving their record to 1-26. Now let’s move along in our roundup series and look at some money-making trends, races, or futures.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Awesome Aubie

The Auburn Tigers currently rank 13th in the AP Poll, sit as a 3-Seed in the latest Bracketology update, 2nd in the SEC standings, and are 20-5 (9-3) on the year. That is a lot to be excited about on your way to March. The Tigers struggled in nonconference play, falling to Baylor and App. State, but have turned their season around in a big way. They have yet to lose a game at home and have three more such games before the season wraps up. The knock on the Tigers is they can’t play at home in either expected tournament appearance. They are just 7-5 in 12 road games with road games against Georgia, #8 Tennessee, and Missouri remaining. However, their domination at home carries weight on the resume as they have a +27-point differential against Top 25 opponents when they play in Neville Arena. They lead the SEC in point differential at +16.2 a game, while their +8.1 APG not only leads the SEC but leads the country. Auburn is primed to win the SEC’s regular season crown if they can find a way to knock off Tennessee, but their road woes are something to pay attention to when we get to March. Auburn is +210 to win the SEC outright, +340 to make the Final Four, and +1700 to win the National Championship. Additionally, Auburn is 16-9 ATS overall and 10-4 ATS at home.

Seahawks Soaring

This week’s dark horse team to watch is the UNC Wilmington Seahawks of the Colonial Athletic Conference. They have won 10 of their last 11 games, they are 19-6 overall and tied with Charleston for the top of the conference standings, and they currently project as a 13-Seed in the latest Bracketology update. They have also found themselves in the ‘others receiving votes’ group outside of the Top 25. Their season has been highlighted by a big road victory in Lexington as they took down the 12th ranked Wildcats 80-73 back in early December. Since then, they have dominated their conference opponents and are turning their attention to March. They are 2-0 against Charleston this season, so they hold the tie breaker and seem to be a lock to win the regular season conference title. However, when comparing them to the rest of the nation, they have a Q-Score of just 0.57 thanks to a mere 8-6 record against Quad2 and Quad3 teams. The Seahawks lead the conference in point differential (+10), are solid from the charity stripe (75.7%), and average over 80 PPG. UNC Wilmington is a team that could stun a top seed if they can secure the conference title bid.

Conference Races

I foreshadowed the SEC regular season race coming down to Auburn and Tennessee. However, what other conferences have tight races as we round out the regular season? Of the major conferences, the only two conference titles that appear to be a lock is Purdue in the Big 10, Saint Mary’s in the West Coast, and UCONN in the Big East. The B12 is far from over, but the two favorites are Houston (-185) and Iowa State (+275). The two teams are tied for first, and the Cyclones do have the tiebreaker at the moment, but they will square off at Houston on Monday. The ACC is a two-horse race between North Carolina (-280) and Duke (+240). North Carolina holds a half game lead and the tiebreaker over Duke in the standings, but the two have one more meeting.

One of the more intriguing races is that in the Mountain West and the American Athletic. In the Mountain West, Utah State (+135) is the current leader in the standings, with New Mexico (+350) and San Diego State (+210) a game back. The intrigue is in the fact that both New Mexico and San Diego State have beaten the Aggies, but Utah State hosts the two schools before seasons end and control their own destiny. As for the American, Florida Atlantic (+100) is the favorite to win the regular-season title despite being a game behind South Florida (+250). Charlotte (+280) and SMU (+400) really made this race to the finish line interesting. Charlotte has the tiebreaker over Florida Atlantic, but the Owls will square off with South Florida and SMU and can distance themselves from their loss to the 49ers.

Wooden Award

This award has been locked up for a while. Purdue’s Zach Edey is the heavy favorite at -3000 to win the award. However, he deserves the highlight as his WCBB counterpart, Caitlin Clark, got last week. Edey ranks third in the country with 23.3 PPG, shooting 61.3% from the floor and is third in the country with 11.8 RPG. It would be nice if he could improve on his 70.3% F%, but that is simply just knit picking as Edey has been the clear favorite all season long. Him and the Boilermakers are primed to revenge their early-round exits over the last few years. North Carolina’s RJ Davis (+3500), Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson (+4000), Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht (+4000), and Duke’s Kyle Filipowski (+7500) round out the Top 5 for the Wooden Award.

Saturday Free Pick: Creighton Bluejays @ Butler Bulldogs – Creighton -3.5

I like Creighton despite their poor performance ATS this season. Both teams need the win to enhance their resumes, but Creighton has the better team. No Big East game is easy, especially when you are on the road. However, that is where the difference sets in. Creighton has been solid on the road this season and should find a way to pull away late.

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