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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 2/10/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/9/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Caitlin Clark

With Selection Sunday six weeks away, teams are really needing to polish their resumes with important wins while avoiding the silly losses. Staying to the trend of the season, the SEC and Big 12 both are neck-and-neck with the number of teams showcased in the latest projection of the bracket, each with nine teams making the list. This week has been another chaotic week, with seven unranked teams taking down Top 25 clubs. And there are plenty more clubs on upset alert heading into the weekend. As we push on towards the season’s end, let’s take a look at some notable trends and numbers from around the nation.

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Big Bubble Battle Out East

In Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update, there were five Big East teams mentioned as his bubble teams. Butler and Seton Hall were listed as the last four in, St. John’s was listed as the first team out, while Villanova and Providence were in the next four out group. I am excluding Villanova from this list at 12-11 and three Quad3 losses, as they won’t make the tournament. So, let’s examine the four teams resumes and see if they should be in:

Seton Hall: 15-8 (8-4), NET- 66th, Q-Score- 0.78

The Pirates have done well in conference play after a slow start to begin the season. Their resume features wins against Marquette, Providence, and UCONN, but they are being held back by their combined 3-4 record against Quad2 and Quad3 opponents. Their four remaining road games are against St. John’s, UCONN, Creighton, and Villanova, and they will need to pick up a win or two more on the road and avoid a first round loss in the conference tournament. My Pick- They’re in.

Providence Friars: 15-8 (6-6), NET- 56th, Q-Score- 0.87

Opposite of the Pirates, Providence did really well in nonconference play but has struggled against Big East competition. They have notable wins against Wisconsin, Marquette, Seton Hall, and Creighton. They have a losing record against Quad2 opponents, highlighted by a 20-point blowout at home to Xavier. There is little room for error and only four Quad1 games remaining. My Pick- NIT

Butler Bulldogs: 15-8 (6-6), NET- 51st, Q-Score- 1.00

The good news for Butler is they have only one sub-Quad1 loss. The bad news is they have struggled against Quad1 opponents. They are 3-7 against Quad1 opposition this season and they have only two wins against ranked teams. The good news is, the Bulldogs can focus in on their home games in which they are 10-2 this season and if they can end nearly perfect at home, Butler will add two ranked wins to the resume, and even better news they beat those two (Creighton and Marquette) at their place already. My Pick- They’re in.

St. John’s Red Storm: 14-9 (6-6), NET- 42nd, Q-Score- 0.87

It’s never good to have a Quad3 loss on your resume, and it’s even worse when you don’t have any ranked wins to balance it out. The Red Storm is 0-5 against current Top 25 opponents and they have only two Quad1 wins. This team will be joining the Friars in the NIT bracket, unless they make a run in the conference tournament. My Pick- NIT

Sycamores’ Surge

Indiana State is this week’s dark horse mention. The Sycamores are 21-3 on the season, with their three losses coming on the road to Quad1 opponents in Alabama, Michigan State, and Drake. Right now, Indiana State projects to be a 11-Seed with an automatic qualifying bid by winning the Missouri-Valley Conference. Their 1.43 Q-Score ranks 17th best in the nation, and they should cruise through the remainder of the season. Coming from a weaker conference, they have little margin for error, but the Sycamores have a +14.1 PPG differential, which ranks 13th best in the nation, showing they have handled the competition well. They also rank 5th in the nation with 86.1 PPG, 2nd in FG%, 7th in 3P%, and in the top 20 in APG and FT%. Even if they don’t win the conference tournament, we should still see this team in March.

ATS and O/U Wallet Swellers

As mentioned in previous roundups, the Minnesota Golden Gophers and the Green Bay Phoenix continue to fill the wallets with their success ATS. The two have combined to cover in 35 of 45 games, but there are more teams who have been dependable ATS. The Cal State Northridge Matadors are third in the country with a 16-6 record ATS, while the Eastern Washington Eagles, Southern Illinois Salukis, and Stony Brook Seahawks have covered in over 72% of their games. On the other hand, there have been two clear cut options for fading ATS so far. Detroit Mercy and the Pacific Tigers have combined to go 10-37-1 ATS this season and have a combined 6-44 on the year.

For game totals, there are four squads who are consistently hitting the over and have successfully done so in over 70% of their games this season. Wright State leads the way with 18 overs in 23 games, with Kentucky right behind them with 17 overs in 22 contests. The Queens (NC) Royals have hit the over in 17 of 23 games, while Air Force rounds out the top four with 16 covers in 22 games. As for the under-game total representatives, Dartmouth has seen the under game total in 88% of their games. Rutgers has hit the under in 16 of 22, while Maryland and Notre Dame have done so in 16 of 23 games on the season.

Caitlin Clark

Yes, Caitlin Clark. That’s the only punchline needed. Shining light on the ever so deserving WCBB game, there is one who stands far higher than the rest, Caitlin Clark. She may only be 6-foot-0, but she has become WCBB. Clark, as you’ve heard by now, is on pace to break scoring records of not only the NCAA women’s record (Kelsey Plum), but the NCAA men’s record (Pete Maravich), as well as Lynette Woodard’s record of 3,649 points that isn’t officially recognized by the NCAA. So, everyone, drop the asterisks. Caitlin Clark is the best women’s college basketball player to ever take the court. Below is what she would need to average to overcome each mark, as she currently sits at 3,489 career points with at least eight games left (six regular season and at least two playoff games):

Kelsey Plum – 3,527, Clark- needs 39 points.

Lynette Woodard- 3,649, Clark- needs 161 points (20.1 PPG)

Pete Maravich- 3,667, Clark- needs 179 points (22.3 PPG)

Right now, the game she is favored to break the record in is February 15th vs Michigan at -220. However, with a solid performance, she can break the record in her next game at Nebraska which has a +175 mark. Clark leads the nation with as she averages 32.2 PPG while also leading in assists with 8.2 APG. And yes, Sheryl Swoopes, she is just a true senior and the best thing to happen to women’s college hoops.

Saturday Free Pick- Vanderbilt Commodores @ South Carolina Gamecocks- SC -13.5

After a close game against Ole Miss their last time out, the Gamecocks will be ready to beat up on someone in front of their home crowd. South Carolina is 17-6 ATS this season, while Vanderbilt has covered in less than half of their games. South Carolina has covered in seven of their last 10 games, and Vandy has won just twice over their last 10 games. All signs of a South Carolina blowout win.

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