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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 1/27/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/26/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup for Saturday and free pick DaRon Holmes Dayton Flyers

As we near the final stretch of the season, there is the potential for a lot of chaos to ensue over the next 60 days. With all the potential, we need to take a look at some of those teams primed for the storm and those who may not reach the penultimate goal of making it to March. In this article, I will discuss two teams who have fallen from their normal standing while looking at two teams who have quietly risen the rankings and are looking to make a deep run this postseason.

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High-Flying Secrets

One of those quiet risers is the Dayton Flyers. The Flyers are ranked 16th heading into the weekend with a 15-2 overall record and 6-0 A-10 record. This isn’t a team that is just going to make it because of a conference title, Dayton is one of the top teams in the country. Their two losses came against Houston and Northwestern losing by a combined 19 points, but they have not lost since November 19th and have an average margin of victory of +13.5 PPG over their 13-game win streak. Their resume boasts wins over LSU, St. Johns, and Cincinnati while also maintaining perfection in the A-10. F DaRon Holmes II leads the team with 19.6 PPG and 7.6 RPG while shooting 43.2% from beyond the arc. The Flyers thrive on efficiency leading the conference in PPG differential at +10.2 and +7.8% 3P% differential, while also allowing just 63.8 PPG which is best in the A-10 and ranks 19th best nationally. In Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology update, the Flyers are featured as a 3-Seed and it is worth noting that the Flyers rank 4th in the nation with a 1.89 Q-Score behind only Houston, Purdue, and UCONN.

Big 10 is No One-Horse Race

The Purdue Boilermakers are currently ranked 2nd in the country with an 18-2 record that showcases wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Arizona, and Illinois (the most impressive resume in the country). They have two silly road losses to Nebraska and Northwestern, but those qualify as Quad-1 losses. Purdue is the most efficient scoring team in the Big 10 and ranks in the Top 10 in the country in scoring, and their defense isn’t awful. So, with all those wins, a highly efficient roster, the best player in the country (Zach Edey), and a weaker conference, Purdue should be a lock to win the Big 10, right? *Insert the Wisconsin Badgers* Wisconsin is ranked 13th and is 15-4 overall, but currently sits atop the Big 10 standings. The Badgers do have two bad losses to Penn St. and Providence but have four Quad-1 wins. The Badgers have one game over Purdue in the conference standings with the two teams set to face off twice between now and the end of the season and the Boilermakers have the tougher schedule down the stretch. This race is not over and right now, you can get the Badgers at +290 odds to win the Big 10 Regular Season crown.

Zigzagging Zags

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are part of a conversation they haven’t heard in a very long time. Will they make it to March? After Lunardi’s last update, the answer remains no. Gonzaga is 14-5 this season and has yet to pick up a Quad-1 victory after going 0-3 against opponents of that caliber. Their five losses are to Purdue, Washington, UCONN, San Diego State, and Santa Clara and with the loss to Santa Clara, not only did they fail to do enough in their nonconference games they also have fallen already to a conference opponent. The Bulldogs are third in the WCC standings behind Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s. They are the last team out at this point in Bracketology but will have the chances to zigzag their way back into the bracket. A road game in Lexington against the 6th ranked Kentucky Wildcats along with two games against Saint Mary’s, and of course the chance to win the conference’s automatic qualifier, are keeping their head above water, but they must get it done. Gonzaga will make the tournament and may take advantage of a lower seeding, but is isn’t a lock at this point, like we are used to seeing from the Bulldogs.

Fall From Top Branch

The Jayhawks have fallen off the top line in Lunardi’s Bracketology update and are now sitting as a 2-Seed, following their third loss of this campaign. And the finger pointing is all on their road performance. All three losses have come away from Allen Fieldhouse. Although they lost the games by an average of just over eight points, the Jayhawks will have to improve on the road if they want to make a run. Their remaining schedule is anything but easy with road games against #23 Iowa State, #20 Texas Tech, #11 Oklahoma, #15 Baylor, #4 Houston, and Kansas State. They also have a home game against #21 BYU. Kanas doesn’t necessarily have to win the Big 12 to be a top line seed, but they will need to be near perfect to end the season if they want to beat out Purdue, Houston, UNC, or UCONN. Kansas is set to enter the toughest part of their schedule and in two weeks’ time we should have a good enough idea of whether this team deserves a 1-Seed.

Saturday Free Pick- Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Maryland Terrapins – Nebraska +146

I like Nebraska to get the tough road upset in College Park. They need to improve their road performance if they are wanting to make it to March. They match up well to the Terps and are averaging nearly 80 PPG. Maryland is a very low percentage shooting team and is barely averaging over 70 PPG. They also struggle from deep so if Nebraska can pull ahead early, it is a done deal as Maryland is not a play from behind team. The Cornhuskers take care of business and grab another conference win.

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