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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 1/20/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/19/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Jackson Shelstad Oregon

After another crazy week full of upsets, it is time for another edition of our CBB Friday Roundup series. This week we have seen six Top 25 teams fall to unranked opponents, further adding to the conference play noise that has been so prevalent this year. As we march our way towards the postseason, let’s take a look at not only the best conference, but how it will be next season, as well as two more teams to highlight as chaos candidates, and who has been beating Vegas the most since conference play began.

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Big 12 Hoops on the Horizon

There is no argument to be made against the fact of the Big 12 being the best and deepest conference in the nation this season. As it stands, the Big 12 has three teams in the Top 10 and eight in the Top 25. Not only that, but the 16-team conference features only two squads with losing records. Unranked Kansas State is tied with #3 Kansas and #25 Texas Tech for the conference lead at 3-1, while 5th ranked Houston has been taken down twice already by conference foes after an undefeated start to the campaign. The conference has eight ranked teams and 12 “March-Caliber” squads, and it is only going to get better next season. Though they will be losing Texas and #15 Oklahoma to the SEC, they will be adding powerhouse and 12th ranked Arizona as well as Utah, Colorado, and Arizona State. Next year the league will get a little more top heavy as Utah and Arizona St. don’t add much, but the conference will feature three perennial schools in Kansas, Arizona, and Houston, with the likes of Baylor and Texas Tech always on their heels. Though we are primed for an extremely exciting conference title race, stay excited, because next year’s race to the finish line might be even better.

From Pond to Pinnacle

Oregon came into the season with being voted as the 4th best team in the PAC-12. And with that underwhelming rank, the Ducks left the pond and began heading towards March. Oregon is 13-4 on the season and 5-1 in the PAC-12. Their resume highlights wins over USC, UCLA, at Washington, and Georgia. They do have three losses that will carry some weight going forward, with blowout losses to Syracuse and at Colorado, while also losing to Santa Clara earlier this season, though the Broncos did just knock off Gonzaga. In the latest update to ESPN’s Bracketology, the Ducks are a 10th seed and one of just three PAC-12 teams showcased in the bracket. They do have more chances to enhance their resume, specifically with two matchups against 12th ranked Arizona and road trips to UCLA and USC. If they can manage a winning record in those matchups, and avoid an early exit in the PAC-12 Tournament, then this team is in.

Now that they’re in, what makes them a dark horse? Veteran presence and depth. Young-gun G Jackson Shelstad leads the team with 14.2 PPG, with four other Ducks averaging double-digits. Senior big man N’Faly Dante returned to the lineup and has been a boost despite being limited at the moment. Though they are not the most explosive team, they have turned the ball over the least in the PAC-12. This team doesn’t scare you on paper, but they are consistent, experienced, and have a lot of options. Oregon has +3800 odds to make the Final Four, and they sit at +600 to win the PAC-12.

Cinderella Cowboys

McNeese State has galloped their way into being a dark horse candidate to not only make the bracket, but also being a creator of chaos. We see it every year, a no name team will come into March as heavy underdogs and knock off some better seeded teams, and this season these Cowboys look like they could be the bunch to do it. They are currently 15-2 and sit atop the Southland Conference standings. Their resume features wins against Michigan and a 21-point win over UAB, not bad for a small school. Their only losses came on the road and were against teams making their own case for March. They lost by two to Western Carolina (15-3) and by nine to Louisiana Tech (12-6), both second in their respective conferences. McNeese St. ranks 2nd in the nation in FG% differential, 5th in the nation with a +19-point differential, and 6th in the nation with a +9.5% differential behind the arc. The only knock on them is they don’t shoot free throws very well, and their conference only has two other members with a winning record. There is little margin for error. However, this team has the explosiveness and the potential to ruin some brackets. The Cowboys currently have +4800 odds to make the Final Four.

Vegas Vanguards and Duds

With the futures out of the way, lets see which teams have been making and losing money since the start of conference play. When it comes to ATS success, only one major conference team has been undefeated, the Florida State Seminoles. Florida State is 5-0 ATS in their last five contests. Florida St. now 5-1 in ACC play and has good chances to play well in their next four contests, with Clemson and #4 UNC coming to Tallahassee and road trips to lowly Syracuse and Louisville. Another team that has performed well ATS is the Eastern Kentucky Colonels, as they have covered in each of their last five games as well. After a five-game skid, the Colonels have started their conference campaign winning four straight games. They have three straight home contests against opponents with a combined 24-32 record, so look for them to stay hot ATS.

Now for those who have failed to get the job done perhaps there is no bigger team to note, than the 23rd ranked Florida Atlantic Owls. The Owls are 0-5 ATS in their last five contests and have continued to be underwhelm despite Vegas’ high expectations. Though they are 4-1 in this stretch, their average margin of victory is only 7.2 PPG. Therefore, if Vegas hands out another line higher than that, fade the Owls. Overall, Florida Atlantic is 9-9 ATS. Ohio State is another team that you should fade as they haven’t covered in any of their last five games. Their last five games have been entirely ugly, losing three straight and barely beating the likes of West Virginia (6-11) and Rutgers (10-7). I like this trend to continue as the Buckeyes have a tough five game stretch ahead of them with road trips to Nebraska, Northwestern, and Iowa and home games against #14 Illinois and Penn State.

Saturday Free Pick- Penn State @ Ohio State / Ohio State -8.5 *This line was calculated through personal calculations due to early submission, not an official line

I just got done bashing Ohio State and mentioned their tough upcoming five game stretch. I do think that Penn State is their only chance at getting a confidence win. Penn State has been terrible on the road this season going 0-7, including neutral site games. Their average margin of defeat over those seven games is -12.7 points. They did beat the Buckeyes by three at home earlier this season, but with the importance of getting back on track, I like Ohio State to pick up a season saving win in this one and a big double-digit victory.

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