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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 1/13/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/12/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup Elijah Hawkins Minnesota Golden Gophers

Last night, three Top 25 teams took the court, and all three games were decided by one possession. No. 10 Illinois held off Michigan State, No. 24 Florida Atlantic edged out Tulane on a questionable call, and No. 23 Gonzaga suffered their fifth loss of the season already as they fell to Santa Clara, 77-76. On Wednesday, three Top 10 teams lost as Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee lost to unranked opponents. Things are heating up as we continue through conference play, so let’s take a look at some other interesting notes around the country.

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Golden Gamble

There has been no team better at covering than the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They are 14-1 ATS and are the only team to cover more than 12 times this season. They are currently riding a nine-game cover streak and on a seven-game winning streak, outright. Minnesota has covered all four of its games against Big Ten opponents and has a good chance of continuing their success ATS as their next three opponents are Indiana, Iowa, and Michigan State all of whom are having underwhelming seasons. F Dawson Garcia leads the team with 16.7 PPG and 7.6 RPG, and three other Gophers are averaging double-digit PPG. Though the depth of this team isn’t great, Minnesota stays competitive and continues to cash in ATS. As it stands now, the Gophers are not projected to make the tournament, but it might be time to put some respect on the name as these guys have excelled to this point of the season.

Court Royalty

According to Joe Lunardi’s latest update in Bracketology, there are two conferences that stand a little taller than the rest, as the SEC and Big 12 feature the most teams in the projected bracket. The latest bracket update includes eight members from the SEC and eight from the Big 12. So, the question is, who is going to be labeled as court royalty? Which conference ends up with the most teams in March? My answer, the Big 12.

For the SEC, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee are the only locks, while the likes of Ole Miss (14-1), South Carolina (13-2), and Mississippi St. (12-3) seem likely to make the tournament. Texas A&M (9-6) and Alabama (10-5) both made the bracket in Lunardi’s update, with Florida (10-5) as a Bubble team. UGA (12-3) is another team to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

In the Big 12, there is only one team that has a losing record and only two teams with a winning percentage of less than 71%. This is the deepest conference in the country. Kansas, Houston, Oklahoma, and Baylor are locks, while Lunardi includes Iowa St. (12-3), Texas Tech (13-2), Cincinnati (12-3), and BYU (12-3) in his last update. He didn’t even include No. 25 Texas, a 12-3 TCU team that just knocked off No. 9 Oklahoma, or a 12-3 Kansas St. team.

Though the B12 will beat itself up, it is easy to assume that they are the conference with the most teams that make the bracket and stacking up against the SEC, I am not sold that Alabama or TAMU can recover enough to make the tournament, despite some good wins on the resume. B12 vs SEC, B12 will end up with the most teams.

A Cry for Mercy

For those of you who don’t know, the Detroit Mercy Titans are members of the Horizon League and are the worst team in the country. Every year, there is always someone at the very bottom, and this year features this abysmal Detroit Mercy squad. They are 0-17 this season with an average point differential of -17.7 PPG. They are that bad without having faced a ranked opponent this season. They rank 358th in PPG, averaging 60.1, and 3PT% shooting just 25.6% from deep. They also shoot less than 70% as a team from the charity stripe. The Titans are not only 0-17 on the year, they are only 2-14 ATS this season, the worst mark in the nation. All in all, this is a bad team, but hey they do deserve some credit for going into Oxford and almost knocking off the Rebels earlier this season with a score of 70-69.

Bubble Update

As the season progresses and we get excited about March, those of us who do brackets need to start learning more about the teams outside of the Top 25. In Lunardi’s last Bracketology update, the First Four Out included Florida, Nebraska, Virginia, and TCU. Let’s take a quick glimpse at these squads and see who is built for March.

TCU is 12-3, and two of their three losses have come against ranked opponents in Clemson and Kansas. They do have a ranked win against No. 9 Oklahoma and will take on No. 2 Houston at home next. They play in the best conference in the country and will have plenty of chances to enhance their resume. This veteran squad, led by F Emanuel Miller, has tournament experience and can go toe to toe with anyone. I like for the Horned Frogs to end up in the bracket in March.

Next, we will take a look at the Nebraska Cornhuskers, who currently sit at 13-3 with a big 16-point win against No. 1-ranked Purdue. Two of their three losses are against ranked opponents as they lost to No. 15 Creighton and No. 21 Wisconsin. Their takedown of Purdue is their lone Top 25 win, and they have only two ranked opponents remaining on the schedule, so there is little margin for error with the Cornhuskers. They like to let it fly from beyond the arc. And if they get hot, they can beat anyone, but consistency has lacked. I do not think this team will make the tournament as they suffer a few losses to some mid to low tier opponents.

Florida is an odd team to me, and I don’t understand Lunardi’s thinking. They got hot in December and didn’t lose a game. However, if you took away that month and the Gators are 4-5, failing to beat a ranked opponent, and an 18-point blowout loss to Ole Miss. The SEC is loaded, and I think the Gators will find themselves near the bottom of the standings when the season is over.

Finally, Virginia is 11-4 so far and 2-2 in ACC play. They have a nice win over a ranked, at the time, Texas A&M team, but their four losses have been embarrassing to say the least. In the four games they have lost, their average margin of defeat is 21.3 PPG, and their losses include Notre Dame, NC State, Memphis, and Wisconsin. The Cavaliers will benefit from a weaker ACC conference, but I think their only chance of making it to March is miraculously snagging the ACC Tournament crown.

We should see TCU make the tournament. However, I am not sold on either of the other three bubble teams.

Saturday Free Pick: Houston Cougars @ TCU Horned Frogs, Houston -4.5 -110

TCU is coming off a huge home win against 9th-ranked Oklahoma, and now they have the No. 2 Houston Cougars coming to Fort Worth. I like Houston to win this win and cover the spread. This will be a highly competitive game for the first 30-35 minutes, but I think the Cougars relentless defense will wear out TCU and Houston will pull away late. TCU just doesn’t have the weapons to overcome the Cougars style of play, as the Houston defense is by far the best unit in the country allowing just 50.3 PPG, 7 PPG less than 2nd place.

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