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Expert NHL Handicapping Roundup + Saturday Free Pick for 1/13/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 1/12/2024

Expert NHL handicapping roundup and Saturday free pick Sam Reinhart Florida Panthers

We are at the midway point of the NHL season, and the playoff picture is still nowhere near solidified. We have seen the Edmonton Oilers revive their season, while teams like the Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, and New Jersey Devils are playing well after slow starts to their campaign. At the midpoint, let’s take a look at some interesting notes and trends from around the league and see where we could earn some more money and recover from all the holiday shopping.

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A Stanley of Ice and Fire

There are no hotter teams in the NHL than the Winnipeg Jets and the Florida Panthers. In what could be a prelude to Stanley Cup Series in the near future, let’s take a look at these two team’s side by side and see what a Stanley of Ice and Fire would look like:

The Winnipeg Jets are the only club to reach 60 points on the season, to date. Currently, the Jets are in the midst of a 14-game point streak and an eight-game winning streak. You would have to go back a whole month to see a game in which the Jets did not pick up a point. Furthermore, the Jets are 16-2-2 in their last 20 games. And they are doing all this without Kyle Connor, who had accrued 28 points in 26 games before falling on the long-term injury reserve (LTIR). This team was forced to demonstrate their depth, and they exceeded expectations. Led by Mark Scheifele (41), there are three Jets players with over 30 points and another six players who have tallied 20 points. On top of that, they have Vezina contender Connor Hellebuyck guarding the net, and he has put together an elite showing this season, allowing just 2.20 GA/G.

As for the Panthers, they have won their last nine games and have shot their way up the Eastern Conference standings and now sit just one point behind the Bruins in the Atlantic, and Eastern Conference. Their +29-goal differential leads the Eastern Conference, and their 2.46 GA/G is the best mark in the East and ranks third overall in the NHL. Over the nine-game win streak, the Panthers have found a huge increase in their offensive production as they have averaged 4.33 GF/G compared to their 3.20 mark on the season. Led by C Sam Reinhart (53), the Panthers roster showcases four players with 40 or more points on the season. Reinhart’s 53 points ranks in the Top 10 in the NHL, and his 30 goals ranks 2nd in the league, three behind Auston Matthews.

These teams’ match up really well, especially if the Panthers offense continues to improve as the season progresses. However, in a seven-game series of Ice and Fire, I am giving the slight edge to the Jets thanks to having the best goalie in the NHL this season.

Oilers Look to take the Crown

Though the Jets and Panthers are on a tear, don’t forget about the Oilers, who are currently riding a nine-game win streak and have won 17 of their last 20 games. Thanks to this hot stretch, the Oilers find themselves just tied in the Wild Card spot and just three points behind the Kings for the last guaranteed spot in the Pacific. Connor McDavid has found his stride and is in the Top 10 in the NHL with 56 points, and netminder Stuart Skinner has transformed into a formidable goalie in this league. Edmonton has +500 odds to win the Pacific, +600 Odds to win the Western Conference, and +1100 odds to win the Stanley Cup. Now might be a good time to place some futures. As they aim to usurp the Kings, we could see this Edmonton cause some real noise despite their early season struggles.

ATS Notes

Next week, we will come out with the next update of which teams have been performing well ATS, but before that let’s break it down a little more than normal and see who is performing well ATS and overall, at home and away. Vancouver and Winnipeg lead the NHL in home ice covers with Vancouver covering in 15 of their 19 home games and the Jets covering in 15 of 22. Overall, the Colorado Avalanche have a league leading 18 home victories in 23 home games to this point. There is no better team at covering on the road than the Philadelphia Flyers, by far. The Flyers have covered 18 of their 21 road games this season. Their 85.7% cover rate on the road is 12% better than second place (Columbus, 73.7%). The Canucks have the second most covers away from home, covering in 16 of their 23 road games. Straight up, the Kings and Jets have had the most success on the road, with the Kings picking up one more point than Winnipeg. The Kings have had more than half of their point total come from road games.

Senatorial Woes

Ottawa might be the most disappointing team in the NHL this season. They are 14-23 on the season, and their 28 points is the worst in the Eastern Conference by seven points. They have lost five in a row and 12 of their last 15 games. They are 16-21 ATS so far this season. The biggest issue for the Sens is their abysmal goaltending. They rank 31st in the NHL in GA/G as they have allowed 3.68 goals per game and their .886 SV% ranks in the same spot. Joonas Korpisalo has not performed well for Ottawa, and his backup, Anton Forsberg, has provided little relief. I do not think all is lost for Ottawa, as their offense ranks in the top third in the league. However, being this far behind at the halfway point of the season, I think Ottawa will turn their attention to next season.

Saturday Free Pick: Dallas Stars @ Chicago Blackhawks, Over 6.5 +102

Dallas and Chicago have played twice this season, Dallas is 2-0, and there have been a combined 18 goals between the two contests. Yes, Connor Bedard is out for a time, and he is the biggest offensive piece for the Blackhawks, but the Stars will be on the back half of a back-to-back and will be sending Matt Murray to guard the net. I think there will be a lot of goals scored in this one, and the Blackhawks will face less resistance than what they are used to from the Stars.

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