Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup 3/15/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/15/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup Harrison Ingram UNC Tar Heels

The final Friday Roundup for the College Basketball season is upon us. Champ Week has already been extremely chaotic, and we still have a packed weekend ahead of us to determine the bracket. Creighton, Duke, and BYU were all upended in their conference tournaments, while teams like South Carolina, Arizona, and North Carolina haven’t even blinked. No more introduction needed, let’s get into the madness.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Reanalyzing the A-10

If you wanted chaos, you need not look further than the A-10 Tournament. The top four seeds have been eliminated, including the ranked Dayton Flyers team. The Duquesne Dukes beat Dayton, Saint Joseph’s Hawks upset Richmond, VCU dominated UMass, and the Bonnies ended the beloved Ramblers’ season, so no Sister Jean again this season. All four of these teams have renewed hope of making the Big Dance despite it being on the backburner just two days ago. The VCU Rams are now the favorites to win the conference tournament at +170, while Duquesne +280, St. Bonaventure +280, and Saint Joesph’s +350 follow. Let’s analyze the semifinal matchups:

Saint Joseph’s vs VCU- The Rams took the only game between these two in the regular season with a four-point home win, and they will repeat that here. VCU ranks second in the A-10 with a +5.6% 3P% differential, and their defense has been lights out this tournament.

St. Bonaventure vs Duquesne- The Bonnies are 0-2 against the Dukes this season but lost both games by only a combined 10 points. I like St. Bonaventure to find the win when it matters. They are the better 3-Point shooting team and they have been good creating second-chance opportunities. They get it done from the charity stripe and their perimeter defense shuts down the opponent’s chances for a big play.

A-10 Winner - VCU Rams +170

Blue Blood

They are Blue Bloods for a reason. Year in and year out, these are teams you can bet on being featured in the Big Dance. Let’s see where they stand this year as we near Selection Sunday.

North Carolina – UNC has some silly losses to some poor competition, but they have fought their way to a projected 1-Seed in the tournament and have collected wins against Duke (twice), Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Clemson. RJ Davis has been lighting it up from deep and is averaging 21 PPG. Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram have been nice compliments and give this UNC team a lot of weapons. They may be the best team in the country.

Final Four- +390

Duke – Duke was upset much earlier in the ACC Tournament than one could have thought. They have now lost two games in a row heading into Selection Sunday. They went 2-3 against ranked opposition this season, losing to UNC twice and Arizona, who should all be No. 1 seeds. However, this may be the most dangerous 3-seed in the tournament. Kyle Filipowski is the kind of star a team needs to win it all.

Final Four- +500

Kentucky – UNC may be the best team in the country on paper, but the Wildcats are the hottest team in the country. They have won their last five games and are set to play Texas A&M for their first SEC tournament game. Antonio Reeves has been playing at an elite level, while the Wildcats have four other guys averaging 10.3 PPG or more.

Final Four- +500

Kansas – Unfortunately for Bill Self and his Jayhawks, this season has been bad relative to their standards. The 16th ranked Jayhawks faced an early exit in the Big12 Tournament as they were without Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. and the depth became an issue. The blueprint is there for beating Kansas to get their stars in foul trouble early as the depth is not competitive. K.J. Adams is the only other Kansas player averaging double digit PPG. It is hard to imagine this team making it further than the Sweet 16.

Final Four- +700

Mountain Madness

Though not as crazy on paper as the A-10, the Mountain West has seen its fair share of chaos as well. Nevada (2-Seed), Boise State (3-Seed), and UNLV (4-Seed) will not see the semifinals. The four remaining teams in the Mountain West Tournament are Utah State (1-Seed), San Diego State (5-Seed), Colorado State (6-Seed), and New Mexico (7-Seed). Their deep conference run has put the Lobos in prime position to make it to March Madness with one more win. San Diego State is the favorite to win the division at +135, with New Mexico +240, Colorado State +390, and Utah State +420. Below are the semifinal matchups:

San Diego State vs Utah State- Despite being the conference’s 1-Seed, the Aggies have the worst odds of the remaining teams to win the tournament. In the regular season, these two teams split the series, with each team winning at home. Whoever controls the boards will win this one. The Aggies are an excellent offensive team, while the Aztecs do a good job creating second chance opportunities. This game will be a battle.

Colorado State vs New Mexico- Like the other semifinal matchup, these two squads split their regular season series, with the home team picking up the win. The Lobos are in desperate need of a win in order to extend their season beyond the Mountain West Conference, while the Rams are looking to finish strong on their miraculous turnaround season. These are two of the best scoring teams in the conference, with the Rams shooting nearly 50% from the floor. The Lobos need to control the boards in this one if they want to win.

MWC Winner – Colorado State +390

Lower Class Champs

Instead of the normal Free Saturday Pick, I will highlight some of the lower-class tournaments and pick who I think will be their representative in the Big Dance.

Big West- UC Irvine (-185) seems to have this tournament in their hands. The Anteaters are the most complete team in the conference, ranking first in opponents’ PPG and were tied first in PPG. Their +5.0 RPG is the second-best mark in the conference, while their +7% FG% is the best mark in the conference. Anteaters look to be a chaos contender in March Madness.

MEAC- North Carolina Central Eagles have the second-best odds at +200, which adds value to the best team in the conference. They are the best scoring team in the MEAC while also holding opponents to less than 30% from deep. They run into trouble at the line, which could hurt them, but I don’t see the Eagles losing in their conference tournament.

SWAC- This has been an ugly tournament for the conference. Bethune-Cookman’s +0.7 PPG differential is the highest among the four remaining teams. However, Grambling is getting hot at the right time, and you have to ride the hot hand in this sport. The Tigers have gone 16-4 since January, and their offense has been playing way better than the numbers reflect. Grambling at +200 is the play.

WAC- Grand Canyon will win this conference and they will be a bracket buster. They dominated the WAC and are a very good team. Seattle will give them a run for their money in the semifinals, and they have tremendous value at +480, but the Lopes (-180) are built for March.

Get college basketball picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent March Madness Betting

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers