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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 12/27/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/27/2024

College basketball handicapping roundup Caleb Grill Missouri Tigers

College basketball is back in full force this weekend with some great matchups as teams turn their attention to their conference foes. With the return to action, we will take a look at two teams who are on the bubble, one who is currently in, and one is being undeservingly left out of the picture. In addition to the bubble update, the ACC race appears to be led by the Duke Blue Devils. However, can Clemson, North Carolina, or SMU make things interesting? All that and more in this week’s College Basketball Roundup.

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Bubble Update

With conference play on deck, let’s do a deep dive on a couple of teams who have worked their way to the bubble and hope to continue to make their push to return to the Big Dance this spring.

Missouri Tigers 10-2, +105 to make the tournament

The Missouri Tigers have turned the program around this season. After going just 8-24 (0-18) last season, the Tigers have already reached the 10-win mark and should be a unit of chaos in the loaded SEC conference. Missouri’s two losses were against solid opponents in Memphis and Illinois. Both of those were played away from home and the two losses came by a combined 11 points. However, those losses are mitigated by the Tigers win over the top ranked Kansas Jayhawks, beating the former No. 1 team by nine. Missouri is currently fourth in the conference in scoring as they are averaging 87.8 PPG. They are shooting 51% as a team, while their defense has held opponents to just 40.9% shooting. Caleb Grill (13.6 PPG) is a huge threat from beyond the arc, and he will be key in keeping the Tigers relevant in conference play. Though the Tigers are on no one’s radar to do much in the SEC, they could pick up a few key wins. And with a win or two in the conference tournament, the Tigers will have a solid case to reach the 68-team field in March. They have one more nonconference tune up game against Alabama State before traveling to Auburn to take on the second ranked Tigers to open the conference schedule.

Iowa Hawkeyes 9-3 (1-1), -120 to make the tournament

The Iowa Hawkeyes are looking to return to the Big Dance after missing out last season. Iowa has had a solid start to the season, as they are 9-3 with only one loss sticking out compared to the others. They lost a tough game on the road at Michigan, which had a few questionable calls down the stretch and they lost to No. 3 Iowa State by nine after leading at halftime. The one eye sore loss is to Utah State, who they lost to by eight in the Hall of Fame Classic. Iowa has won their last two games and has picked up resume building wins against Utah, South Dakota, and Northwestern. Iowa is averaging 87.8 PPG this season, which is the second highest total in the Big 10, and they are shooting 50.2% as a team. Their 19.6 APG leads the conference and ranks fifth nationally. Iowa is focused on beating you with their scoring ability; this approach does leave them prone to a poor defensive showing. The Hawkeyes allow 74.5 PPG, which is the second most among Big 10 schools, though they are great at defending the perimeter as the opposition shoots just 28.1% from deep. The Hawkeyes play New Hampshire before being fully immersed in conference play, where they will pick back up with a road game against Wisconsin. The Big 10 is a lot deeper than we originally thought, and the Hawkeyes are another tournament caliber team that is flying under the radar.

ACC Race

As it stands now, the fourth ranked Duke Blue Devils are the heavy favorite to win the ACC regular season title with -230 odds. Behind them and rounding out the Top Five are Clemson (+500), North Carolina (+800), Pittsburgh (+1300), and SMU (+2200). Duke, SMU, and Clemson have all started conference play 2-0, while Pittsburgh has started the season 10-2. Duke has already picked up two road wins so far and has beaten Louisville and Georgia Tech by a combined 28 points, while SMU and Clemson have also blown out their conference opponents so far. North Carolina at +800 is a scam. The Tar Heels are just 7-5, and their lone ACC win has come against Georgia Tech in a three-point victory. The Tar Heels will begin ACC play with three out of four games being on the road, so we should get an idea of just how capable this North Carolina team is and if they are tournament worthy. As for the ACC regular season crown, Duke has to travel to SMU which is an important tie-breaking scenario for both squads as that is the only time they will play each other this season. Additionally, they only have Pittsburgh and Clemson once, and they have to travel to Clemson, which means two of the three big tie breaking scenarios hang in the balance of Duke performing well on the road. However, the Blue Devils are one of the best teams in the country, and there is no way they don’t dominate in ACC play.

Hopeful Hoyas

Georgetown was not on anyone’s radar heading into the season, but their own. The Hoyas have dominated their nonconference schedule and have picked up some key conferences wins already. At 10-2, the Hoyas have positioned themselves well to make the Big Dance in March and be a formidable team in the Big East. Their two losses came against Notre Dame and West Virginia, but they have picked up big wins against Syracuse and Seton Hall (both on the road) and a big blowout win against Creighton, as they won that one by 24 points. They have a solid backcourt with Jayden Epps (15.9 PPG), Micah Peavy (13.7 PPG), and Malik Mack (12.3 PPG) who are shooting 34% from deep or better with Epps leading the way at 39%. Thomas Sober is also a menace down low as the forward is averaging 15.2 PPG on 54.4% shooting and is leading the team with 8.0 RPG. The Hoyas real strength is their defense. They have limited opponents to just 63.8 PPG which is the second lowest amount in the Big East. The Hoyas suffocating defense has kept opponents to a mere 39.1% FG% and their FG% differential of +8.1% is the best mark in the Big East. The Hoyas currently have the seventh best odds to win the Big East regular season crow at +11000, but they are at least worth your couch change and are definitely a dark horse candidate for the conference tournament down the road.

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