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Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 12/20/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/20/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup Cooper Flagg Duke Blue Devils

With the final holiday tournaments on deck and conference play starting, let’s take a look at some betting news and trends around the league. The Wooden Award race has a new name in the mix while the Big 10 has emerged as one of the deepest conferences in the nation. Thanks to a hot start, the Arizona State Sun Devils have put themselves in a good position to make some noise in the Big 12 and work their way into the Big Dance and of course we have to take a look at ‘Nobody U.’ Let’s see what’s going on around the nation.

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Wooden Award Update

As it currently stands, Johni Broome is the odds-on favorite to win the Wooden Award at +130. His running mate Cooper Flagg is right behind him at +135. However, there is another name that has joined the party as Marquette’s Kam Jones is closing in on the two favorites with. Jones currently has the third best odds at +430. Broome has been the obvious leader of the second ranked Auburn Tigers as he leads the team in points (18.1 PPG), rebounds (11.5 RPG), assists (3.5 APG), and blocks (2.7 BPG) all while shooting 55.3% from the floor. His 11.5 RPG ranks fifth in the nation while he also ranks in the Top 10 in BPG. As for Flagg, he leads the Blue Devils in points (16.6), rebounds (9.0 RPG), assists (3.6 APG), blocks (1.4 BPG), but also in turnovers (2.3 TO). Now enter Jones who leads his Golden Eagles squad in points (20.3 PPG) and assists (6.3 APG) while also shooting 55.6% from the floor and 37.9% from beyond the arc. Of the group, Jones leads the trio in scoring, FG%, and 3P%, but Broome leads in all other significant categories. Broome also plays for the highest ranked team of the trio and plays in the most difficult conference in the nation. Auburn will be going toe to toe with many other ranked teams over the course of the conference schedule and if Broome continues to produce like he has through the first half of the season, he will win this award pretty easily. However, he did just have a shoulder injury that could nag at him, so do not overlook Jones’ scoring ability and Flagg is a do it all kind of player too. If healthy, Broome wins this award easily, if injuries limit his time on the floor or production, this is a three-horse race.

Sun Devil Breakthrough

Arizona State has had quite the showing in their inaugural Big 12 season in football, and, so far, their basketball team has been playing really well. The Sun Devils are getting some votes in the AP Poll as they have started the season with an 8-2 record with a +63-point differential on the season. Their two losses came against ranked opponents in No. 6 Gonzaga and No. 9 Florida. The Sun Devils haven’t exactly blown the doors off their competition so far, but they have proved they have what it takes to grind out close games and they have picked up impressive wins against St. Mary’s and Grand Canyon. Thanks to their solid start and perhaps aided by their friendly Big 12 conference schedule, Arizona State has now become a fringe tournament team. They currently have +140 odds to crack the 68-team tournament in March. Now, the Big 12 is a gauntlet of a conference and the Sun Devils will take some hits, but they only play Iowa State, Kansas, Houston, and Cincinnati just once, the only teams in the Big 12 that are currently ranked. Iowa State, the highest ranked Big 12 team, and Houston both have to travel to Tempe. The Sun Devils carry a +7.7% 3P% differential which is the third best mark in the conference, and they are shooting over 38% from deep as a team. Joson Sanon is one of the best players no one is talking about as he is the leading threat from beyond the arc as he is shooting a team best 52% from deep which also ranks seventh in the nation. With a solid three-point ability, and the proven ability to win close games, these Sun Devils are a bubble team that will get in the tournament in March.

B1O Fight

At the start of the season, Purdue was ranked and looked like the only Big 10 team with the potential to make a somewhat deep run in the postseason. The Boilermakers looked like the leaders of what was forecasting to be a pretty mediocre conference. The media was wrong as the conference now has five ranked teams, Purdue isn’t the highest ranked among the group and they have another five teams getting votes in the AP Poll. Oregon is the highest ranked Big 10 team as they are 10th in the nation followed by Purdue (16th), UCLA (18th), Michigan State (20th), and Michigan (24th). Michigan is the favorite to win the conference at +380 with UCLA (+450), Michigan State (+500), Purdue (+650), and Illinois (+800) rounding out the Top Five. Oregon has +1000 odds to win the conference and that may be the best value in the country. Oregon already has wins over No. 20 Texas A&M and No. 9 Alabama and their lone loss came by two points to the now ranked UCLA Bruins. The Ducks have the best resume by far of anyone else in the Big 10 right now, despite having the seventh best odds of winning the conference. Though they aren’t the SEC, the Big 10 might have elevated themselves as the second toughest conference in the basketball landscape and they might be the deepest conference of them all.

Nobody U

Over the course of the last week, college basketball fans have familiarized themselves with the Doug Gottlieb created term “Nobody U.’ If you aren’t familiar, Gottlieb essentially spoke on bolstering your nonconference schedule and avoiding the games that don’t exactly bolster your resume. And he’s right, the best teams in the nation fill their nonconference schedule with solid programs as you have to beat the best to be the best. However, ‘Nobody U’ has gotten its fame through a negative light. Gottlieb is the head coach of the Green Bay Phoenix, and they are coming off an embarrassing two-point loss to Michigan Tech, a Division II program. Now Gottlieb has gotten his share of barbs so there is no need for more. However, the ‘Nobody U’ term actually applies to his Phoenix squad. Nobody should bet on the Phoenix. Their loss to Michigan Tech is their eighth loss in a row and their 11th of the season. They currently carry a -137-point differential on the year and their two wins have come against the likes of SIU Edwardsville and Western Illinois. Green Bay is also 4-8 ATS this season and they aren’t moving the needle much with their game total performance as they are nearly 50/50 with over and under performances. Of the Horizon League teams, Green Bay is last in PPG allowed and is one of just 20 teams (out of 364) that are allowing more than 80 PPG. They also rank last in the Horizon in RPG differential getting out rebounded by an average of 8.9 RPG and the Phoenix rank last in the country in offensive rebounding as they average just 5.9 offensive RPG. It has been an ugly season for the Phoenix and nobody, including U, should bet on the Phoenix this season.

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