Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

Expert College Basketball Handicapping Roundup for 12/13/2024

by Ryan Cobbett - 12/13/2024

Expert college basketball handicapping roundup Caleb Love Arizona Wildcats

As we near the end of the nonconference schedule and begin to shift our focus to conference races, let’s take a look at some of the best storylines from around the nation. First, we will take a look at two bubble teams trending in opposite directions. Then we take a deep dive into the three-headed monster of the Big 12 while also reviewing dark horse candidates from some of the other power conferences.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Bubble Update:

With the end of the nonconference schedule and the beginning of conference play, let’s take a look at who the first team out is as well as another surprise team who has worked their way to the bubble and hope to continue to make their push to return to the Big Dance this spring.

Arizona Wildcats: 4-4

The Arizona Wildcats have lost every single meaningful game this season and have another big one on deck this weekend. They started the season with two big wins against Canisius and Old Dominion came away with a +87-point differential in those games. They followed those two blowout wins with two blowout losses to Wisconsin and Duke. They have since recorded losses to Oklahoma and West Virginia. Arizona’s other two wins came against Davidson and Southern Utah. Caleb Love is having a slow start to his season, as he is averaging just 14.1 PPG, which is down from his 18 PPG total last season, while also shooting just 37.2% from the floor and 29.5% from deep. Transfer forward Trey Townsend has not been living up to his normal production, either, as the grad transfer is averaging just 11.3 PPG, his lowest total since his freshman season. He is also shooting just 25% from deep after averaging 38% over his last two seasons. The Wildcats rank last in the Big 12 in 3P%, while their defense ranks 14th in the conference in PPG allowed. Arizona has a big game against #24 UCLA, which should show us if Arizona can play with the big boys or not.

Missouri Tigers: 8-1

The Missouri Tigers have turned their program around and have been dominating so far this season. They have tied their win total from last season through the team’s first nine games this season. They opened up the season with a loss to Memphis but have since won eight straight games, including a win against #1 ranked Kansas. Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill are quite the backcourt duo, with Bates leading the team with 14.1 PPG and Grill follows with 13.6 PPG. Grill is also become one of the nations best three-point shooters, as he leads the Tigers with a 55.3% 3P%. Both guards are shooting over 54% from the floor. Missouri ranks fourth in the country in scoring, as they are averaging 89.4 PPG while also ranking third in FG% (51.8%). The Tigers still have four nonconference games left, including a solid matchup with Illinois, but they should be ranked before entering the SEC gauntlet.

Big 12’s Big 3

As it stands now, sportsbooks are projecting the Big 12 to be a three-team race. No. 3 Iowa State is the current odds-on favorite to win the conference’s regular season title at +200. No. 15 Houston (+230) and #10 Kansas (+350) round out the Top Three. Iowa State has earned the top spot as the Cyclones have gone 8-1 this season, with their lone loss coming against the Auburn Tigers, who rank just ahead of them in the AP Poll. The Cyclones have done more than make up for that loss, as they have picked up impressive wins against #5 Marquette, Dayton, Colorado, and Iowa, winning those games by an average of 13.3 points. Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert have been leading the way for this team offensively, with the two combining for 33.4 PPG, which accounts for 38% of the Cyclones offense. Behind those two, you have Milan Momcilovic, Dishon Jackson, and Joshua Jefferson, who are all averaging more than 11 PPG, which shows just how deep the Cyclones are. The Houston Cougars have the second-best odds despite having one more loss than the Jayhawks on the year. Houston has lost to both of the ranked teams they have played this season (Auburn by five and Alabama by five) while also losing to San Diego State in overtime by three. Outside of those three losses, the Cougars have an average margin of victory of 30.7 points. Houston doesn’t play another ranked team until their matchup at #10 Kansas on January 25, so they should continue to inflate their numbers and odds because of an easy schedule. Kansas won their first seven games of the season, picking up impressive wins against North Carolina, Michigan State, and Duke. They have since lost back-to-back games, on the road, to unranked Creighton and Missouri. The Jayhawks have the best wins of the three, but also the worst losses. The Jayhawks came into the season as the best team in the nation and should find their way back to the top of the rankings soon. At +350, the Jayhawks just feel like free money.

Conference Sleepers

With the Big 12 shaping up to be a three-horse race, let’s take a look at some real dark horse candidates to win the conference regular season title.

Big Ten- #24 UCLA Bruins: 8-1 (2-0)

The Bruins are off to a hot start this season, winning seven in a row and picking up two conference wins in their first Big Ten games. The Bruins beat Washington and #12 Oregon as they now sit atop the Big Ten conference standings and are now ranked #24 in the country. Their lone loss came against New Mexico, but they have since dominated with a +176-point differential across their winning streak. They have three tough nonconference games against Arizona, North Carolina, and #8 Gonzaga before getting back into conference play. They lead the Big Ten in defense, as they are allowing just 55.1 PPG (also leading the country) and are holding opponents to just 37.5% from the floor and just 28.5% from deep. Their +22.5-point differential is the sixth best mark in the country, as the Bruins are looking poised to make a run at the Big Ten conference regular season title. As it stands now the Bruins are +400 to win the Big Ten regular season conference title.

SEC- #19 Ole Miss Rebels: 8-1

The Rebels are another dark horse, come from nowhere school, with a chance to make a serious run at their conference regular season title. The Rebels’ only loss of the year came against Purdue and was decided by just two points. They picked up key wins against Louisville and BYU, beating those two schools by a combined 34 points. Ole Miss will end their nonconference schedule with a road game at Memphis before starting conference play. That game against the Tigers is the Rebels’ last chance to bolster the out of conference play portion of their resume. The SEC is loaded, but the Rebels have been dominating the opposition this season and are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, while they also turn the ball over the least amount in the nation. With teams like Auburn, Tennessee, and Alabama getting all the love and hype, look out for this Ole Miss team who has +3400 odds to win the regular season SEC crown.

Get college basketball picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

 

Most Recent College Basketball Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers