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Expert College Basketball Handicapping: Mid Major Dark Horses

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/4/2024

College basketball mid major dark horses Javohn Garcia McNeese State

With the 2024-25 college basketball season on deck, it is time to identify some dark horse candidates. As we find ourselves in the Transfer Portal and NIL era, we are finding newfound life in some programs while more parity around the nation, keeping the field much tighter than before. There has been some major retooling of rosters all offseason, and now it is time to find some squads who could be agents of chaos this season. Whether it’s through veteran lineups or a deep transfer class, it is time to see who this year’s Oakland or Grand Canyon is.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

McNeese: 30-4 ovr. 17-1 Southland

Key Losses: Shahada Wells (17.8 PPG), Antavion Collum (8.6 PPG), Nasir Mann (7.5 PPG, 6 RPG), CJ Felder (6.3 PPG, 69.4% FG%)

Key Additions: Sincere Parker (15.9 PPG, Saint Louis), Jerome Brewer Jr. (13.8 PPG, TAMU-Commerce), Bryant Selebangue (4.8 PPG, Arizona State), Brandon Murray (4.3 PPG, Ole Miss), Quadir Copeland (9.6 PPG, Syracuse)

After one of the best regular seasons of any team last season, the McNeese Cowboys are ready to get right back into the thick of things and find their way back to the Big Dance. They are once again favored to win the Southland Conference and will have some impactful nonconference games that could boost their resume. It is tough losing their leading scorer in Wells, but they have guards DJ Richards Jr. and Javohn Garcia who both shot over 44% from deep last season as well as Parker who is transferring over from Saint Louis forming a more than capable trio to replace Wells. Brewer Jr. will also come in and boost this Cowboys squad adding some solid defensive play as well as being a capable scorer as he has a career 50.2% FG%. Winning against Santa Clara is a must win and #2 Alabama needs to avoid overlooking the Cowboys. The Crimson Tide play McNeese right before a stretch that includes five ranked teams in six games. As for Mississippi State, they will meet McNeese on a neutral court and will definitely be put on upset alert. It is hard to repeat a 30-win season, but no matter the record, this team is better than last year’s and could make some noise in March.

Notable Games: @2 Alabama, Santa Clara, Mississippi State

UAB: 23-12 ovr. 12-6 AAC

Key Losses: Eric Gaines (12.3 PPG), Javan Davis (9 PPG), Daniel Ortiz (6.6 PPG)

Key Additions: Bradley Ezewiro (12 PPG, Saint Louis), Tyren Moore (17 PPG, Georgia Southern)

The Blazers are on this list thanks to their returning production and two impactful transfers. They do lose their second leading scorer in Gaine but have more than made up for that loss by adding Moore and Ezewiro. Moore had an explosive season last year in Statesboro as he averaged 17 PPG and shot 40.6% from deep and 46.8% from the floor. He and Yaxel Lendeborg will form one of the best, underappreciated and not talked about, duos in the country. Ezewiro will also come in and boost the front court of the Blazers. Their schedule is weak so it will be imperative that they avoid tripping up in games they should win. However, a true road win at North Texas, a win against Memphis, and some success in the AAC tournament, would give the Blazers a good-looking resume even without winning the AAC again this season. They currently sit at +270 to win the conference and are +6000 to reach the Final Four. This is a veteran team that should not be overlooked come tournament time.

Notable Games: @ North Texas, @ Memphis, Memphis

Saint Louis: 13-20 ovr. 5-13 Atlantic 10

Key Losses: Sincere Parker (15.9 PPG), Terrence Hargrove Jr. (13.1 PPG), Bradley Ezewiro (12 PPG, 6.2 RPG), Tim Dalger (9.7 PPG), Michael Meadows Jr. (5.7 PPG), Cian Medley (22.7 MPG)

Key Additions: Robbie Avila (17.4 PPG, Indiana State), Isaiah Swope (15.9 PPG, Indiana State), Kobe Johnson (6 PPG, West Virginia)

As we have seen on this list so far, the Billikens have lost their top scorer in Parker (McNeese) and their leading rebounder in Ezewiro (UAB), so how does Saint Louis still end up on this list? Because of their offseason hire of ex-Indiana State head coach Josh Schertz. Schertz did not have too much work to do right off the bar as he brought two stars with him from Indiana State. Avila and Swope immediately fill the hole left by Parker and Ezewiro and may even make this starting five a little better. Schertz and the Billikens also brought in power conference transfers in Johnson (West Virginia), AJ Casey (Miami), and Josiah Dotzler (Creighton) who should add depth to this reshaped Saint Louis roster. Avila is one of the best scoring centers in the nation and Swope’s three-point should make it look as if Parker never left. Gibson Jimerson will need to replicate his production again this season, and depth is a bit of a question mark, but the Billikens brought in two underrated transfers that should put Saint Louis in the conversation within the Atlantic 10 and then the Big Dance. A +500 Saint Louis has the third best odds to win the conference in the regular season and their roster now has some tournament experienced leaders. Look out for the Billikens taking care of business in the conference.

Notable Games: Santa Clara, @ Grand Canyon, @ VCU, VCU

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