Expert College Basketball Handicapping: Major Conference Dark Horses

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/4/2024

College basketball major conference dark horses Hunter Sallis Wake Forest

With the 2024-25 college basketball season on deck, it is time to identify some dark horse candidates. As we find ourselves in the Transfer Portal and NIL era, we are finding newfound life in some programs while more parity around the nation, keeping the field much tighter than before. There has been some major retooling of rosters all offseason, and now it is time to find some squads who could be agents of chaos this season. Whether it’s through veteran lineups or a deep transfer class, it is time to see who this year’s North Carolina State or Clemson is.

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St. John’s: 20-13 ovr. 11-9 Big East

Key Losses: Daniss Jenkins (14.9 PPG, 5.4 APG), Joel Soriano (13.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG), Jordan Dingle (11.6 PPG), Chris Ledlum (9.5 PPG), Naheim Alleyne (6.4 PPG, 91.3% FT%),

Key Additions: Jaiden Glover (4-Star, 78th nationally), Kadary Richmond (15.7 PPG, Seton Hall), Deivon Smith (13.3 PPG, Utah), Aaron Scott (11 PPG, North Texas), Vince Iwuchukwu (5.5 PPG, USC)

It is never an easy thing to immediately recover from losing five of your six top scorers, but thanks to the transfer portal and a reduced gap between the Top Three teams in the Big East and the rest of the field. Richmond headlines the fourth ranked transfer class as he did it all with Seton Hall last season and will be able to leverage his experience and lead his team once again in multiple categories, including on defense. With him, Smith and Scott should be able to boost the teams deep shooting ability, while Smith will compliment Richmond nicely because of his ball movement skills. St. John’s will have some nonconference games that could help boost their resume, including #8 Baylor and an under-the-radar Kansas State team, while they look to improve on their 1-5 record against the Big East’s Big Three (UConn, Marquette, Creighton) which can be done thanks to their transfer portal activity. The Red Storm have +430 odds to win the conference, which is tied with Creighton for the second-best mark in the Big East while they are at +950 to reach the Final Four. They are loaded with experience and their roster features a do it all star in Richmond as well as some capable sharpshooters.

Notable Games: #8 Baylor, Georgia, Kansas State, @ #15 Creighton, #18 Marquette, @ #3 UConn, #15 Creighton, #3 UConn, @ #18 Marquette

Missouri: 8-24 ovr. 0-18 SEC

Key Losses: Sean East II (17.6 PPG, 45% 3P%), Nick Honor (11.1 PPG), Noah Carter (11 PPG), Connor Vanover (4.2 PPG, 12.9 MPG)

Key Additions: Annor Boateng (4-Star, 26th nationally), Peyton Marshall (4-Star, 69th nationally), Marcus Allen (4-Star, 79th nationally), Trent Burns (4-Star, 113th nationally), Marques Warrick (19.9 PPG, Northern Kentucky), Mark Mitchell (11.6 PPG, Duke), Tony Perkins (14 PPG, Iowa), Jacob Crews (19.1 PPG, UT-Martin)

Missouri should be on everyone’s radar as they head into the season with the potential to have one of the best comeback stories in sports history. After failing to win a conference game last season, the Tigers got busy. They brought in the fifth best recruiting class signing four four-star players and three players in the Top 100 player rankings. In addition to their success out of the high school ranks, the Tigers also brought in the 13th best transfer class as they totally reshape the roster. Warrick and Crews were some of the best scorers last season, albeit at lower-level schools, but between Crews’ three-point ability as well as Warrick’s toughness and ability to get to the free-throw line they should be able to post similar numbers this season. Perkins comes over from Iowa and will boost the Tigers defense while Mitchell adds even more depth in the backcourt. This is a completely new looking Tiger team and its one that will cause some headaches for their conference foes. At +4500 to reach the Final Four, they might be worth some couch change.

Notable Games: @ Memphis, #1 Kansas, Illinois, @ #11 Auburn, @ #21 Florida, #16 Arkansas, @ #19 Texas, #24 Ole Miss, @ #12 Tennessee, #13 Texas A&M, #2 Alabama, @ #16 Arkansas, #23 Kentucky

Wake Forest: 21-14 ovr. 11-9 ACC

Key Losses: Boopie Miller (15.6 PPG), Andrew Carr (13.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG), Damari Monsanto (5.1 PPG, 12.5 MPG)

Key Additions: Ty-Laur Johnson (8.7 PPG, Louisville), Tre’Von Spillers (12.8 PPG, App State)

Lurking in the long-casting shadows of Duke and North Carolina are the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. The ACC is down this season outside of the Top Two titans, but the Demon Deacons could be a thorn in the side of those two all season. The nonconference schedule for Wake Forest is a bit weak, but they can pad the resume by stealing a win against #21 Florida or #13 Texas A&M. Losing Miller hurts, but Hunter Sallis (18 PPG, 40.5% 3P%) is back and Efton Reid III (9.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is due for a big step forward. Spillers and Johnson give the Demon Deacons plentiful depth while the team also brought in former five-star forward Omaha Biliew from Iowa State who is a low risk, high reward and could really raise the ceiling of this team as he didn’t get much of chance to play as he was suffocated by a loaded Cyclones roster. Wake Forest is at +1000 to win the ACC, but an even better bet would be to take them reaching the Final Four at +1900 as well as taking them in the conference tournament later this season. Wake Forest is going to be a dangerous team this season.

Notable Games: #21 Florida, @ #13 Texas A&M, #9 North Carolina, #7 Duke, @ #7 Duke

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Start:	November 21, 2024 @ 8:15 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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Expert College Basketball Handicapping: Major Conference Dark Horses

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