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March Madness Bracket Predictions: Dark Horse Final Four Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/19/2024

Dark horse Final Four contenders Alex Ducas Saint Mary's Geals

Madness is finally upon us. And with that, it is time to finish up your brackets. Year after year, there is a team or two that shatters everyone’s hopes of a perfect bracket. Last year we saw one of the highest aggregate Final Four sums in history, with the defending champion UConn Huskies being the lowest seeded team at four. The average aggregate hovers over nine, However, after last season’s mark, it could be assumed that the transfer portal has been a positive for the higher seeds. Let’s go to each bracket, and I will identify a team that could surprise everyone and make the Final Four and then I will give you two teams who could be this year’s Saint Peter’s.

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Final Four Contenders

East

6 Seed- BYU Cougars

The Cougars played exceptionally well in their first season in the Big 12. Their resume includes wins over Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, and San Diego State. Their offense has not been consistent this season but has the capability to be one of the best rated offenses in the country. They led the Big 12 in rebounding while ranking second in assists. Their +11.9 PPG differential was the third best mark in the best conference in the nation. Their road to the Final Four would feature opponents like Illinois, Iowa State, and potentially UConn, Auburn, or San Diego State. The good news for the Cougars is they have beaten the Aztecs and Cyclones already and have played in some pretty hostile environments -- they won’t be so easily rattled. Their offense can outplay Illinois and is capable of powering through Iowa States and/or UConn’s defenses. At +1500, they have the fifth best odds of reaching the Final Four.  

West

5 Seed- Saint Mary’s Gaels

The Gael’s defense is unbelievable. They ranked second in the country, allowing just 58.7 PPG to their opponents. Not only that, but they have a serviceable offense that features five players averaging double-digit PPG and sharpshooter Alex Ducas has averaged 44.2% from deep. They led the West Coast Conference in offensive rebounds, and their +6.3 APG differential also led the conference. They have a tough opening match against Grand Canyon (see below). However, if they get by, they match up favorably against Alabama and UNC. This defense is elite, and they have Ducas, who is capable of hitting big shots to get them back in the game or pull away. They would also have to get through Arizona, who is another talented team. However, what’s a March without miracles? They have the fourth best odds at +1000 to make it to the Final Four.

South

5 Seed- Wisconsin Badgers

This Badgers team is way better than their 5 Seed label. They climbed the rankings and were ranked as high as sixth earlier this season. February was particularly unkind to the Badgers, but they finished the season on a high note, picking up wins over Purdue and Northwestern. This is a deep squad with a lot of scoring options, and Steven Crowl is one of the best three-point shooters in the game. They would have to get past Houston’s defense, but the Badgers have the size advantage over the Cougars. This region is full of teams who experienced rollercoaster seasons, so it will be interesting to see if the Badgers can reach a peak again. They have the fourth best odds at +1200 to make it to the Final Four.

Midwest

6 Seed- South Carolina Gamecocks

The Gamecocks were picked by some to finish last in the SEC. Well, here they are as a 6 Seed and a legit path to make a deep run. They have big wins against Grand Canyon, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Florida. It is concerning that South Carolina went 0-2 against Auburn, losing by an average of nearly 36 PPG, but the good news is their path isn’t as difficult as some. They would have to go through Creighton, and then Tennessee, who they have already beaten, and there is a lot of chaos potential in the upper half of this region’s bracket, with Kansas lacking depth, Purdue’s curse, and McNeese looking to make a Cinderella run. The Gamecocks currently have the eighth best odds at +3500 to make the Final Four, and that is tremendous value I will take.

Complete Bracket Busters

12 Seed- Grand Canyon Lopes

Grand Canyon dominated most of their season and went on to win the conference title both in the regular season and the tournament. Their four losses were by an average of five points, with three of the losses being true road games and one neutral-site game against South Carolina, who turned in one heck of a season. They did pick up a ranked win over San Diego State while also beating a good Sam Houston team. The schedule wasn’t difficult, but the Lopes carried a +12.8 PPG differential throughout the regular season, and their defense was dominant over the last five games. Grand Canyon has allowed just 58.8 PPG over their current five-game winning streak. The path wouldn’t be easy, but they match up well against Saint Mary’s and then could take down an Alabama team who struggled against the better competition this season. Grand Canyon has size, and Tyon Grant-Foster is a scorer. Don’t be surprised to see this team crack the Sweet 16.

12 Seed- McNeese Cowboys

One of just a handful of teams to win 30 or more games this season, the Cowboys are ready to hit the big stage. Their average margin of defeat was just 4.67 points, and they have lost only once since Thanksgiving. They picked up big wins against UAB and VCU and will now get their shot against Gonzaga. They have carried a +18.9 PPG differential and have four starters shooting over 40% from deep and four averaging 11.4 or more PPG. Gonzaga allows a lot of second chance points, but have done a good job limiting their opponents scoring. If the Cowboys can win, they could certainly match up well against a shorthanded Kansas team or the 13 Seed Samford Bulldogs and then could potentially extend Purdue’s March Madness curse. 

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