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College Football Underdogs Week 3: Moneyline Best Bets

by Joey House - 9/12/2024

College football underdogs Week 2 Hudson Card Purdue Boilermakers

We're back with the third edition of the "Dawg Pound," where we look for underdogs of a touchdown or more who we feel have a chance of not only covering the spread but winning outright. Tulane took the lead in the first quarter and had a 10-point advantage at halftime before allowing Kansas State's defense to have a strip-and-score for the go-ahead touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The Green Wave lost but covered the 9-point spread, 34-27. Marshall's trip to Blacksburg wasn't a happy one, losing 31-14 to Virginia Tech, but they did cover the 20.5-point line. Navy dominated Temple, 38-11, and easily covered the 12.5-point spread.

All times are Eastern Standard Timezone

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Arizona vs. No. 14 Kansas State (-7/60.5) Fri. Sep 13, 8:00 pm FOX

It's a battle of Wildcats, as Arizona opens up on the road for the first game in the Big 12, traveling to Manhattan to play No. 14 Kansas State. Arizona has been impressive on the offensive side of the ball in their two games this season, averaging 494 yards on offense and 41.5 ppg. Kansas State has also been effective, gaining an average of 422 yards and 37.5 points a game. The defenses are going to be the difference here. Arizona is better equipped to stop the run, which is the strength of the Kansas State offense. Meanwhile, K-State struggles to slow down the air attack, and Arizona's junior QB Noah Fifita has a strong supporting cast around him. Arizona has very quietly put together the nation's longest current winning streak in college football. They are going to look to make a statement in their new conference.

PICK: Arizona +7 ML +225

No. 16 LSU vs. South Carolina (+7/48.5) Sat. Sep 14, Noon ABC/ESPN+

LSU has not lost to South Carolina since 1994, with the Tigers going 7-0-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in that span (they tied 20-20 in 1995). However, LSU has not looked good in either of their games this season, losing to USC 27-20 and then a non-cover win against FCS Nicholls State 44-21 (-46.5 point spread). At one point in the second half, LSU was up only 23-21 before they scored the last three TDs. They didn't score at all in the fourth quarter. However, LSU allowed the Nicholls State running back to gain 145 rushing yards. South Carolina, meanwhile, looked very tough in their 31-6 win at Kentucky. The Gamecocks defense, in particular, looks very nasty, having generated 10 sacks and six turnovers in the first two games while allowing an average of 12.5 ppg. The Tigers are still undisciplined, as evidenced by the 17 penalties for 140 yards. South Carolina has a more disciplined team, a stronger defense, and getting a touchdown at home because of history.

PICK: South Carolina +7 ML +200

No. 18 Notre Dame vs. Purdue (+9.5/44.5) Sat. Sep 14, 3:30 pm CBS/Paramount+

Northern Illinois gave the college football world the blueprint for beating Notre Dame last week, winning as a 28-point underdog 16-14 in South Bend. Fighting Irish QB Riley Leonard, a transfer from Duke, has not been stellar this season, going 38-62 (61.3%) for 321 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Purdue, who had a bye last week, didn't allow a point in their 49-0 win against FCS Indiana State. The Boilermakers' head coach, Ryan Waters, is in his second season at the helm and returns the 5th-most experienced offensive line in the nation this season, with the unit having 165 starts, and it should give the Boilermaker's senior QB Hudson Card plenty of time to throw. Notre Dame's pass rush failed to record a sack in their loss to the Huskies, and they have just one sack in the season. Purdue's offense is capable of outscoring a weaker Notre Dame attack, and their defense can slow them down enough that the Boilermakers will officially kill the Irish's playoff dreams. This line opened at Notre Dame -12.5 and quickly dropped to its current state.

PICK: Purdue +9.5 ML +275

Colorado vs. Colorado State (+7/57.5) Sat. Sep 14, 7:30 pm CBS

This is the 90th edition of the Rocky Mountain Showdown but the first time being played at Colorado State since 1996. I love taking home dogs in rivalry games because talent and records are thrown out the window, and heart and desire mean much more. These two teams played an epic contest last season, with the Buffalos tying it with a touchdown and a 2-point conversion with 36 seconds left before winning in overtime, 43-35. Colorado is entirely one-sided on offense through its first two games, averaging 344 yards passing but a putrid 38 yards rushing a game, 129th of 132 in the nation. The Rams got torched by Texas in Week 1, losing 52-0, but came out last week to defeat FCS Northern Colorado 38-17. Colorado's defense, which was its Achilles Heel last season, isn't any better, giving up 392 yards and 27 points per game. Buffalo head coach Deion Sanders was a Hall-of-Fame player and possibly one of the best hype men in college football today, fantastic at drumming up support and interest in the game. Watching him coach, however, it's clear he's flawed as a sound tactician, with questionable calls in both his loss and win this season. Again, it's a home dog with a better defense. Yes, please.

PICK: Colorado State +7 +200

Year-to-Date

Straight Up: 0-6

Against-The-Spread: 5-1

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