College Football Underdogs Week 2: Moneyline Best Bets

by Joey House - 9/6/2024

College football underdogs Week 2 Kyron Drones Virginia Tech

Welcome to Week 2 of the "Dawg Pound," where we look for big underdogs in the college football slate that we feel have untapped value. We had a helluva ride last week, as North Dakota State and Central Arkansas had leads in the second half. Central Arkansas actually scored the go-ahead touchdown with 52 seconds left before they allowed Arkansas State to drive the length of the field and score the winning touchdown with 3 seconds left.

So, even though our record on the money line is 0-3, all three dogs covered ATS. Our selections last week included two FCS schools and a MAC team. Because of our success against last week's spread, I will track how 3-team round-robin wagers would do. That way, even if we don't win our games outright, we might still be able to realize a profit.

All times are Eastern Standard Timezone

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Kansas State vs Tulane (+9/47.5) Noon ESPN

This game represents what is great about the expanded College Football Playoff. Because the Power 4 conference champions and the highest Group of 5 school are both included, each squad enters the season with not only high but realistic chances of making the playoffs. This adds spice and entertainment to an otherwise ordinary early nonconference game. When these schools last met in 2022, Tulane entered Manhattan as a 14-point underdog and emerged as a 17-10 winner. There has been a ton of turnover on both sides since that meeting, but it proved to the Green Wave that they can win against more prominent schools.

In recent years, Kansas State has not fared well as road favorites against nonconference opponents, losing its last two games outright. Both teams have experienced rosters and are breaking in new starting quarterbacks. The Wildcats Will Howard left for Ohio State, and the Green Wave's Michael Pratt entered the 2024 NFL Draft. Tulane added a few valuable players through the portal, but none more so than former USC WR Mario Williams. He was a fantastic security blanket for first-time starting QB Darian Mensah last week, grabbing four catches for 124 yards and running a jet sweep for 13 yards. Tulane also features one of the best running backs in the American Athletic Conference (AAC), Makhi Hughes. As a true freshman, he ran for 1,378 yards (5.3 ypc) and seven touchdowns. I expect the Green Wave's balanced offensive attack to keep the visiting Wildcats guessing all day. While this game is important to both teams, a Wildcat loss doesn't eliminate their chances for a playoff appearance. A Green Wave loss, however, is a severe blow for Tulane's post-season aspirations, and as such, I expect them to be more motivated. PICK: Tulane ML +260

Marshall vs. Virginia Tech (-20.5/52.5) 4:30 p.m. The CW Network

Marshall hired Seth Doege as their new offensive coordinator. Given his roots at Texas Tech and disciple of the late, great Mike Leach (he was their quarterback from 2008-2012), it's no wonder the Thundering Herd have installed the "Air Raid" as their offensive system. In their opening victory over FCS Stony Brook, Marshall's new offensive system looked sharp, producing 290 yards passing and 259 yards rushing. Three quarterbacks threw touchdown passes, and four different receivers caught them. Unfortunately, the same can not be said for Virginia Tech's performance last week, as they went on the road to Vanderbilt and lost 34-27 as a 13.5-point favorite. It could be because they were down 17-3 and playing catch-up the whole second half, but the Hokies 75 yards of rushing is slightly alarming. Even though Virginia Tech outgained Vanderbilt slightly, 397 to 371 yards, they didn't generate any turnovers and just two sacks. They allowed Vandy's quarterback to go 12-16 for 190 yards and two touchdowns. Marshall added some talent to their secondary through the transfer portal, and pass defense looks to be the Thundering Herd's strength. These two teams played last season, and Marshall was triumphant, 24-17, the first time the Thundering Herd beat the Hokies. While many will think this is a revenge-scenario game, I don't believe Virginia Tech can exact that revenge. PICK: Marshall +850

Temple vs. Navy (-12.5/44.5) 3:30 p.m. CBS Sports Network

Sometimes, teams just match up well against others. This is the case of Temple and Navy. Over the last seven seasons, Navy has averaged 261 yards a game. However, in the last three meetings against Temple, they've been held to an average of 195 yards a game. Last year, the Owls had just one win in conference play, a 32-18 victory over the Midshipmen. While Temple got blown out against Oklahoma last week, they were the victims of six turnovers. They held the Sooners offense, which has averaged over 450 yards a game over the past four seasons, to 378 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, Navy gave up 337 yards and 21 points to FCS Bucknell. Over the last ten games when Navy was a double-digit favorite at home, they are 9-1 SU but a losing 4-6 ATS. One of those ATS losses was against Temple two seasons ago, when the Owls gave up a late 4th-quarter FG that sent the game into overtime, where Navy pulled out a 27-20 victory. We recognize it's a long shot, but we love taking double-digit dogs that have defeated the team they are playing previously. PICK: Temple +425

PICKS

Tulane ML +260 1 unit

Marshall +850 1 unit

Temple +425 1 unit

3-team Round Robin with the spreads for 1 unit each

Tulane +9 and Marshall +20.5 1 unit

Marshall +20.5 and Temple +12.5 1 unit

Temple +12.5 and Tulane +9 1 unit

Year-to-Date Record

0-3 on the money line -3 units

3-0 ATS

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College Football Underdogs Week 2: Moneyline Best Bets

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