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College Football Underdogs Week 1: Moneyline Best Bets

by Joey House - 8/29/2024

College football underdogs Week 1 Deion Sanders Colorado

Welcome to the world of underdog betting. Here each week, we delve into the heart of college football handicapping to find those hidden gems—teams that might not be favored but have the potential to shock the world. The only guideline we follow is the spread must be a touchdown or more for us to back the dog. Each pick we make is a single unit bet on the money line, but we'll also track how these underdogs stack up against the spread for those who prefer a more conservative approach.

One of the maxims you constantly hear when betting on college football is "Bet unders and the dogs." The reasoning behind this approach is rooted in the psychology of betting; the public tends to overvalue favorites, and the general public likes a lot of scoring, leading to potentially mispriced odds for underdogs and unders. Moreover, games with lower totals often imply defensive battles or conservative play, scenarios where underdogs can keep games close or even win outright, capitalizing on elements like home-field advantage or the element of surprise.

Furthermore, underdogs can be quite profitable early in the season when the books aren't zeroed in on each team's strengths and weaknesses. Market inefficiencies and team misevaluations can lead to soft or incorrect lines, all waiting for the brave bettor to take advantage of.

Without further ado, we present Week 1 of "Barking Dogs."

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

(All times are Eastern Standard Timezone)

N. Dakota St. @ Colorado (-9.5/60.5) Thur. Aug. 29, 8:00 pm ESPN

The Colorado Buffaloes, coached by Deion Sanders, once again grab that national spotlight. I have never seen so much media attention around a team that has won five games in two years. They host an FCS juggernaut, the North Dakota State Bison, who have won nine out of the last 13 FCS Championships. The Bison have a veteran QB who is a threat throwing and running the football. On the defensive side of the ball, they return seven starters from a unit that surrendered 302 yards and 19.9 points per game. While Colorado definitely has the hype game down, they need to work on the actual game of football. The Buffs again led the nation in roster turnover, with 48 transfers leaving the Colorado program. Only 41.7% of the players who lettered are returning, which is ranked 129th out of 134 teams in the FBS. Florida State showed us last week in their 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech what can happen when there is significant roster turnover. The betting public loves Prime Time, which is why we don't. While it hasn't happened much in the past decade, Colorado is 7-3 SU but a miserable 1-9 ATS as home favorites of a touchdown or more for those who don't want to bet the outright upset.

PICK: N. Dakota St ML +245 for 1-unit

Ohio University @ Syracuse (-17.5/46.5) Sat. Aug. 31, 3:30 pm ACC Network

First, the bad news for Ohio. They lost their All-MAC quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, who transferred to Indiana. But starting quarterback Parker Navarro has patiently waited in the wings for Rourke to leave. Ohio added RB Anthony Tyus through the transfer portal from Northwestern, and he looks to spearhead an offensive unit that will focus heavily on the run. Syracuse fired their head coach toward the end of last season and hired Georgia's defensive backfield coach, Fran Brown. Brown has never been a defensive coordinator, let alone a head coach. They added former Ohio State QB Kyle McCord to the roster, which will work out nicely in the future. However, there could be "growing pains" as the Orangemen offense have six starters that were not here last season. Ohio is coming off of back-to-back 10-win seasons, while the 'Cuse have just two winning seasons in the last decade.

PICK: Ohio University ML +625 for 1-unit

Central Arkansas @ Arkansas St (-10.5/56.5) Sat. Aug. 31, 7 pm ESPN+

Butch Jones-coached teams have an aversion to playing defense. In his three seasons at Arkansas State, his defenses have given up an average of 33.5 ppg. With Central Arkansas State scoring an average of 32.6 ppg over the last four seasons, this isn't a stat you want to see if you're a Red Wolves fan. Particularly worrisome is the Arkansas State rush defense, which gave up 4.7 yards per carry and 184.2 yards per game last season. The Bears' specialty is their run game, which averaged 5.7 ypc and 189 yards per game a year ago. Last season, Central Arkansas visited Stillwater, Oklahoma. They lost to Oklahoma State 27-13 in a game much closer than the two-touchdown difference, and the Bears easily covered the 26.5-point spread. These two schools have a history with each other, as Central Arkansas leads the series 13-12-2. Until the Red Wolves show they can stop the rush, we'll bet against them when they play running teams.

PICK: Central Arkansas ML +330

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