College Football Totals Picks Week 3: Over or Under Predictions for Saturday

by Joey House - 9/13/2024

College football totals picks Week 3 Graham Mertz Florida Gators

Welcome back to Week 3 of the College Football Totals Tracker, where we analyze the totals market for the upcoming games and give out our selections and best bets.

For the second consecutive week, we showed a small profit in units. Our picks went 2-2, but the winners were a five- and four-unit selection, while the losers were both four-units, thus giving us a small 0.2-unit profit. We won't be able to retire to the beach with that, but it doesn't drain our bankroll, either. After two weeks, we're up 3.8 units.

As we close out a large portion of nonconference play, the totals will start to decrease across the board. This is due to defenses in conference being generally tougher and much more familiar with the opposing offenses than the nonconference foes.

My strategy this week was to target games with either good defenses or struggling offenses and where inclement weather is predicted. The remnants of Hurricane Francine are making their way inland and dumping large amounts of rain. A storm system is predicted for the Mid-Atlantic region, and rain is forecasted for several games from Virginia through Florida.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

All games are set for Eastern Standard Timezone.

Texas A&M vs Florida (-3/47.5) Sat. Sep 14, 3:30 pm ESPN

Even without the predicted weather, which calls for a 74% chance of rain, I would lean towards the under. Florida's offense has not been spectacular. In their first game against Miami, the Gators could only muster 261 total yards and 17 points. They regrouped somewhat against FCS Samford, racking up 632 yards and 45 points. However, the Aggies' defense resembles the Hurricanes' much more than Samford's. Texas A&M is in a similar situation, dropping their season-opener against Notre Dame 23-13, a game where their QB went 12-30 for 100 yards and two interceptions. They destroyed McNeese State 52-10 the following week with 529 total yards. Two mediocre offenses are meeting two strong defenses in the rain. This has under written all over it. PICK: UNDER 47.5 3-units

Washington State vs. Washington (-4.5/55.5) Sat. Sep 14, 3:30 pm Peacock

This game is being played in neutral Seattle, at the home of the Seahawks. Washington, with first-year head coach Jedd Fisch, has had success moving the ball, averaging 492 yards a game. However, what is slightly concerning is that it hasn't translated to big scores, as they're averaging just 32.5 ppg. One metric I use is called "Yards Per Point," which measures an offense's efficiency. Prolific offenses, like the Washington offense last season, average below 13 yards per point (the 2023 Huskies averaged 12.8 ypp). This year's Washington team is at 15.1 ypp against supposed "inferior" defenses. Washington State has averaged 527 yards of offense a game and had 416 yards against Texas Tech. The problem, however, is they racked up 301 yards of rushing and only 115 yards of passing. The Huskies rush defense is much stiffer than that. Despite Washington's high-powered offense last season, the under in their games is still 6-1 over the last seven contests. With the forecast calling for a 92% chance of rain and 7-10 mph winds, this game also looks like a strong UNDER play. PICK: UNDER 55.5 3-units

No. 4 Alabama vs. Wisconsin (16.5/49) Sat. Sep 14, Noon FOX

Inclement weather does not look likely to factor into this matchup between Power 4 schools. While Alabama's offense has been firing on all cylinders under new head coach Kalen DeBoer, they haven't faced a defense capable of standing up to them. Except for Georgia, Wisconsin will likely be the toughest defense the Crimson Tide must face. The Badgers 2nd-year head coach, Luke Fickell, brought in offensive coordinator Phil Longo and his version of the "Air Raid" offensive system he learned while a disciple of the late, great Mike Leach at Texas Tech. Fifteen games into their tenure, the Badgers average only 24 points per game and just 27.5 ppg this season. It has been almost three decades since Wisconsin has been a touchdown-plus underdog at home, as the 1997 season opener saw Bucky getting 7.5 points from Syracuse, losing 34-0 and staying well below the total of 50. The under is also 7-1 in Wisconsin's last eight home games. Wisconsin will be lucky to score 14 points, but Alabama isn't going to put 35 on the scoreboard either. PICK: UNDER 49 3-units

No. 13 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa (+18/62) Sat. Sep 14, Noon ESPN2

Oklahoma State continues to dream of a College Football Playoff appearance and might have the offense to get there. Unfortunately, they don't have the defense to survive very long if they do make it. The Cowboys are averaging 389.5 yards and 41.5 ppg but are allowing an eye-popping 518 yards and 25.5 ppg to their opponents. They gave up 648 yards of offense to Arkansas last week in a 39-31 overtime win for Oklahoma State. Tulsa has been explosive on offense, averaging 492 yards and 43 ppg. However, the Golden Hurricanes defense is similar to the Cowboys, as they're giving up 311 yards and 28 ppg. The last six meetings between these in-state rivals have seen the over go 4-2. This should be one of the more exciting games on the slate as we expect fireworks galore. PICK: OVER 62 5-units

YEAR-TO-DATE RECORD

PICKS: 4-3 (57.1%)

TOTAL: +3.8 units

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Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Vernon Croy
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College Football Totals Picks Week 3: Over or Under Predictions for Saturday

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