College Football Totals Picks Week 1: Over or Under Predictions for Saturday

by Joey House - 8/30/2024

College football totals picks Week 1 Drew Allar Penn State

Welcome back to "Totally Totals" (what can I say, I'm a child of the 80s), where we dive into the world of college football totals and give you a handful of carefully selected plays each week. Our inaugural season was a mild success, as we went 17-15-2 (53.2%) and a profit of 5.7 units. The beginning of the 2023 season saw us jump to a fantastic start, going 8-5 and up 12.3 units over our first three weeks. Like many teams during a long season, we hit a brick wall a little over halfway through and gave much of our profit back. However, like any true champion, we rebounded nicely and went 4-2, winning 5.2 units.

While we were pleased to show a total profit and mount a late-season rally, our next step is to keep our profits intact during a mid-season drought. After analyzing the plays and results, we are confident we'll be able to do just that.

Last season's rule change involving the clock management didn't affect the totals nearly as much as was initially thought. This year's rule changes are designed to mirror the NFL's clock management. There is now a 2-minute "timeout" at the end of each half that serves as a media timeout with a TV commercial. It operates exactly as the NFL two-minute warning. If the early games are any indication, college coaches don't understand the strategic implications of this stoppage and will have to undergo a crash course on clock management. This should scare every Penn State fan, as head coach James Franklin has proven that while he may be a great recruiter, he is not a good in-game manager.

All times are Eastern Standard Timezone.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Penn State vs West Virginia (+8/51.5) Saturday Noon FOX

Speaking of Jimmy Frank, we use his Nittany Lions as our best bet of the week. Penn State returns six starters, including their starting quarterback and both running backs, from an offense that scored 36.2 ppg (12th in the nation) last season. However, they fired their offensive coordinator, Mike Yurcich, near the end of the season last year after a 24-15 loss to Michigan. While there is plenty to be excited about with the new OC Andy Kotelnicki from West Virginia, that excitement will come after the Nittany Lions offense goes through its growing pains. An inexperienced offensive line and a receiving corps that has had difficulty getting open and catching passes will be the cause of those growing pains. West Virginia averaged 31.5 ppg on offense last season and brought back eight starters, and expectations are high. Like the Nittany Lions, the Mountaineers return their starting QB and three of its four top rushers. However, it's important to note that West Virginia plays in the "defense-optional" Big 12. When they played Penn State last season, they only mustered 15 points. Finally, there is a storm front over the East Coast that will most likely dump rain on Morgantown during the game.

PLAY: UNDER 51.5 for FIVE UNITS

Akron vs Ohio State (-48.5/58.5) Saturday 3:30 p.m. CBS/Paramount+

Expectations are sky-high in Columbus this year. The hated Jim Harbaugh has left Michigan, the pressure of the Wolverines cheating scandal is increasing on "That Team Up North," and with the expansion of the college football playoffs, Buckeye fans think this is their year. While they may just be right, Ohio State will also undergo a slight adjustment period. Their new offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, is a certifiable genius regarding offensive strategy. However, his system is complex, and even though the Buckeyes have a new stud quarterback transfer from Kansas State (Will Howard), it'll take time to get this system running efficiently. Akron is a mess, with just three players returning on offense from a unit that managed 279 yards and 16.3 ppg in 2023. This line has shrunk from 50.5 to the current 48.5, even though most of the bets and money have come in on Ohio State. Akron won't score ten points, and Ohio State won't cover the total by itself.

PLAY: UNDER 58.5 for THREE UNITS

Florida International vs Indiana (-21.5/51.5) Saturday 3:30 p.m. BTN

Just so you don't think I only play unders, we turn to FIU at Indiana. Perhaps for the first time in my 50-year lifetime, Hoosier fans are excited about the future of Indiana football. They fired Tom Allen after a dismal 3-9 campaign and brought in Curt Cignetti from James Madison University. For those unfamiliar with him, he guided JMU through transitioning from an FCS power to a successful mid-major FBS program, going 19-4 in the Dukes' first two seasons at the FBS level. He also brought most of his coaching staff and a dozen of JMU's best players to Bloomington. The Hoosiers, all told, have 21 starters returning, including former Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke, who enters via the transfer portal. FIU's offense brings back eight players and figures to improve on their 20.1 ppg average from a season ago. Their defense, however, was a sieve last year, giving up over 430 yards and 31.8 ppg. In its last six home games where they have been favorites by three touchdowns or more, Indiana is 6-0 SU, and the over has gone 4-2. Cignetti looks to make a statement at the FIU Panthers' expense.

PLAY: OVER 51.5 for FOUR UNITS

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Start:	November 22, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
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College Football Totals Picks Week 1: Over or Under Predictions for Saturday

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