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College Football Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 10/22/2024

College football predictions opening line report Week 9 Ashton Jeanty Boise State

The adage "The early bird gets the worm" can also be true in sports betting. Early lines can offer value as bookmakers set a line that they think will generate action, not necessarily what they think the final spread should be. Doc's recognizes the importance of early value and gives you two "Opening Line Reports," one for the NFL and this weekly edition that covers college. Whatever your football preference is, Doc's Sports has you covered.

Ten undefeated FBS teams remain, but Army (7-0 SU/ 6-0-1 ATS) is the only team in the country without a loss against the spread. Five teams, headed by Indiana and BYU, are 6-1 ATS. UL Monroe and Navy are 5-1, and five other teams are 5-1-1 ATS.

As happens every year, surprise teams emerge from nowhere, and other teams don't live up to expectations. BYU entered the 2024 season with a season-win total of 4.5 wins and easily cashed that as they're 7-0. Indiana and Army both had win totals of 5.5 and have made their backers profitable by going 7-0.

On the opposite end of that spectrum, there has been no bigger disappointing surprise than Florida State. The Seminoles began the year ranked tenth in the nation and proceeded to lose their first three games. With a season win total of 9.5, bettors who went against FSU had winning tickets on Sept. 14th. The Noles haven't improved since that atrocious start, as they are currently 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS. Air Force's struggles this season are another surprise. Ranging anywhere from 6.5-to-7 wins at the start of the 2024 campaign, the Falcons have gotten off to their worst start since their 2013 campaign, where they went 2-10.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

All listed times are for the Eastern Standard Timezone.

No. 17 Boise State vs. UNLV (+3.5/66.5) Fri. Oct. 25th, 10:30 pm CBSSN

Interestingly enough, this Friday night MWC game has serious playoff implications, as both teams have one loss and are currently in a four-way tie for first place in their conference. Unless you've been living under a rock, you've heard about the amazing season Boise State's RB, Ashton Jeanty, is compiling. What you might not have heard is that UNLV has quietly produced the 5th-best rushing attack (251.4 ypg) in the country. The Broncos, offensively, are more well-rounded, ranking 4th in total yards (523 ypg) and 2nd in yards per play (7.8 ypp) and rushing yards (298.8 ypg). Boise has owned this series recently, going 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS against UNLV, including 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS when visiting Sin City. This could be one of the few games this year we're treated to a full game by Jeanty, and we feel he puts them over the top. PICK: Boise State -3.5

No. 11 BYU vs Central Florida (-1.5/55) Sat. Oct. 26th, 3:30 pm ESPN

UCF, with a 3-4 SU/4-3 ATS, comes into this game with an offense scoring 31.3 ppg (48th of 134) and a defense allowing 25.7 ppg (78th). They lost a heartbreaker last week at No. 9 Iowa State, 38-35, on a last-minute TD pass by the Cyclones. A powerful ground attack averaging 280.3 ypg (3rd in the country) and 6.0 ypc (4th) is the fuel UCF uses to score their points. The Golden Knights rang up 354 yards and 4 TDs on the ground last week in their loss at Iowa State. UCF's most significant liability is they are one-dimensional. QB K.J. Jefferson, who spent 5 seasons and started three at Arkansas, struggles with accuracy and turnovers, completing just 59.3% of his passes for 1,012 yards and 7 TDs to 4 INTs. While BYU has given up 220+ yards rushing two times this season, both came against balanced offenses that were dangerous, both throwing and rushing the ball. UCF hasn't done well since its move to the Big 12, and in their last 11 games, are just 2-9 SU. BYU has a balanced team, averaging 34.9 ppg (23rd) on offense and 19.0 (26th) on defense. They escaped last week against Oklahoma State 38-35, as BYU's QB Jake Retzlaff hit WR Darius Lassister for a 35-yard scoring strike with 10 seconds remaining. The Cougars have been solid on the road and in Big 12, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road and 5-1 ATS in the last six conference tilts. While these teams have only played 3 times before, BYU holds a 2-1 SU/ATS lead. Close losses can drain a team; conversely, close wins can be uplifting. BYU keeps its perfect record and dreams of the college playoffs intact. PICK: BYU +1.5

Michigan State vs Michigan (-4/40.5) Sat. Oct. 26th, 7:30 pm BTN

This class in-state rivalry has been in the Wolverines' favor over the last 8 seasons, going 5-3 SU since 2016. However, from a gambling perspective, the Spartans have taken Michigan to the woodshed. Over the last 16 meetings, Sparty is 12-3-1 ATS. While both teams are 4-3 SU, Michigan State is 4-3 while Michigan is 1-6 ATS. The Wolverines offense is a shell of its National Championship squad, averaging two touchdowns less a game in scoring while giving up 11 points more on defense. The Spartans have already matched last year's win total, and new head coach Jonathan Smith has made modes improvements at offense (from 15.9 ppg last year to 21.6 ppg this season) and defense (28.3 ppg to 20.9 ppg). Smith has excelled as an underdog, going 10-18 SU/18-10 ATS as a dog at Oregon State. In his short time at East Lansing, he has led Michigan State to a 2-3 SU/4-1 ATS record as a dog. We expect that trend to continue. PICK: Michigan State +4

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