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College Football Predictions: Week 7 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 10/8/2024

College football predictions and opening line report week 7 Tucker Gleason Toledo Rockets

After a relatively non-eventful nonconference section of the season (unless you're a Notre Dame fan), it did not take long for the madness to descend upon the college football world once conference play started. Of the 26 games with more than a touchdown spread, seven underdogs won outright, with a .269 winning percentage. A $10 moneyline parlay of those games would have returned $1.29 million, which would allow you to easily pay for the Vanderbilt goalpost and the $100,000 fine the SEC slapped on Vandy after the Commodores goalpost was carted off the field through Nashville on Broadway before finally being deposited into the Cumberland River following their historic 40-35 victory over No. 1 Alabama. However, the Crimson Tide were not alone in their agony, as five Top 25 teams lost to their unranked opponents in a wild week of action.

While the OLR went 1-2 last week, the winner was one of those big upsets, as Houston upset TCU 30-19 as a 16.5-point road dog. Penn State's offense looked hungover in the first half and still almost covered the 44.5-point total, as they just coasted to a 27-11 win over UCLA. Bowling Green never threatened to cover the two-touchdown spread against Akron, winning 27-20. Our season record moves to .500 at 8-8.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

All game times are for the Eastern Standard Timezone.

Toledo vs Buffalo (+9.5/44.5) Sat., Oct. 12, Noon ESPNU

The Toledo Rockets are flying right, with a 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS record, a good offense (35.8 ppg, 28th of 134), and stout defense (19.2 ppg, 35th). They're powered by the strong arm of the senior QB Tucker Gleason, who's completed 63% of his passes for 1,180 yards and 14 TDs to 4 INTs. Buffalo will try to stop them with a statistically inferior 3-2 SU/ATS team, scoring 18 points (122nd) and allowing 24.2 points (73rd) in a game. Toledo was a preseason favorite to win the MAC and vie for the Group of 5 guaranteed bid to the expanded College Football Playoff and are clearly the better team here. However, they have struggled with the Bulls over the past 20 years, going just 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS. Buffalo's defense isn't nearly as bad as their impotent offense and has led the Bulls to go under the total in 11 out of their last 13 games. PICK: UNDER 44.5

Purdue vs Illinois (-19.5/50) Sat., Oct. 12, 3:30 pm FS1

Purdue's defense currently holds the unfortunate title of being the Big Ten's worst scoring defense, allowing an average of 36.8 points per game. This places them in a position to rewrite the record books, especially with challenging upcoming games against Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State, and closing out against Indiana. Their season could end with an average of nearly 50 points allowed per game. In their next game, Purdue will face an Illinois team eager for revenge after last year's 44-19 defeat. Illinois, coming off a bye week, will be looking to revitalize their struggling offense, which averages 27.2 points per game. On the other hand, their defense is solid, allowing an average of 310 yards per game, well below the national average of 374 yards per game. The Illini are motivated to make amends for their previous loss and are set on capitalizing on Purdue's defensive struggles. PICK: Illinois -19.5

Washington State vs Fresno State (+3.5/61.5) Sat., Oct. 12, 3:30 pm FS1

Navigating its debut season outside of the now-defunct Pac-12 Conference, Washington State has rediscovered the offensive flair they had when the late, great Mike Leach was at the helm, guiding them to an impressive 11-2 record in 2018. The Cougars are averaging a hefty 41.8 points per game, along with 495 yards of total offense, showcasing their most dynamic attack in years. However, it's not all positive, as their defense harkens back to less stellar times, specifically the 2014 season, by allowing a substantial 468.6 yards and 32.4 points per game. On the other hand, Fresno State has a potent offense, albeit slightly less so than the Cougars, with averages of 394 yards and 31.2 points per game. Like Washington State, the Bulldogs prefer to move the ball through the air, averaging over 32 pass attempts each outing. Their defense presents a slightly better front, conceding 362.2 yards and 28.0 points per game, though this still indicates a susceptibility to strong passing attacks. Given this backdrop, where both teams excel in throwing the football and struggle to defend against it, spectators can anticipate a game filled with aerial fireworks. This matchup has all the ingredients for a shootout, potentially making it the highest-scoring game of the day as both offenses look to exploit the weaknesses of their opponent's defenses.

PICK: OVER 61.5

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