College Football Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 10/1/2024

College football predictions and opening line report Week 6 Drew Allar Penn State

Welcome to Doc's College Football Opening Line Report, where we examine the schedule and odds of the upcoming week in college football and give you our first impressions. Even though it seems like yesterday we were anxiously awaiting the first week of college football; we are now looking at games for the first weekend in October. We were on our way to a perfect 4-0 record when Oregon and UCLA decided to stop scoring in the second half of their game. Oregon was leading 28-10 at halftime. And with a total of 55.5, we were in position to cash our 4th ticket of the day. However, both teams combined for nine points in the second half to go under the total. Nevertheless, our Illinois +19, Navy -3.5, and Indiana -7 selections were all winners, bringing our season record to 7-6, a 53.8% winning percentage.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Handicappers and bettors who place their wagers early in the week must wear many hats. They become a physician and try to discern the severity of injuries and whether players will suit up or not. They become amateur meteorologists when they try to predict if weather will be any factor virtually a week in the future. Finally, they become data mining and statistics experts, so they know the upcoming trends and which ones are pertinent.

All game times are for Eastern Standard Time Zone.

Houston vs TCU (-16/49.5) Fri, Oct. 4, 7:30 pm ESPN

We head to the state of Texas and the Big 12 for our first pick. Houston has the nation's worst scoring offense, at 10.4 ppg. Heck, they haven't scored a point in two Big 12 games this season. But their defense is good, allowing just 20.8 points and only 294 yards per game, 78 yards below the national average. TCU, meanwhile, has the nation's 21st-best offense (38.6 ppg) and the bottom 20% of defensive scoring, allowing 31.0 ppg. The matchup favors Houston, as the one thing they are decent at is running the ball, averaging 130 yards. TCU's run defense has given up 173.4 yards a game, ranking them 100th out of 134. For Houston to entertain any chance of winning, they must play ball control offense and keep TCU off the field. With the run game that the Cougars possess, coupled with the weakness of the Horned Frog's rush defense, Houston will be able to shorten the game. I worry that their inept offense won't be able to produce and put points on the board, but I like taking dogs with the better defense. PICK: Houston +16

Bowling Green vs Akron (+15/51) Sat., Oct. 5, 3:30 pm ESPN+

Bowling Green is the best 1-3 SU team in the nation. They played a ruthless nonconference schedule, starting at Penn State and then, after an early season bye week, traveling to College Station to play Texas A&M. They were heavy underdogs in both games but got two covers, losing 34-27 to the Nittany Lions and 26-20 to the Aggies. Last week, they suffered their first ATS loss, losing SU against Old Dominion as an 11-point favorite. Akron's 1-4 SU/ATS record is not a shock, as they have the nation's fourth-worst offense (14.2 ppg) and third-worst defense (40.2 ppg). The Zips are being outgained 183 yards a game in total offense, with 158 coming from an inept rushing attack. The Falcons tight end Harold Fannin, Jr. is ranked by Pro Football Focus as the number one TE in the country. He leads the nation in receptions (37) and yards (540) and is tied with two other players for most receiving TDs (4). Bowling Green is 7-3 SU/ATS in their last ten visits to Akron. The Falcons will score at ease against the Zips, but Akron won't be able to reply in kind. This will be a rout. PICK: Bowling Green -15

UCLA vs Penn State (-28/44.5) Sat., Oct. 5, Noon FOX

UCLA hasn't been welcomed warmly in their inaugural season in the Big Ten. It's easy to see why former head coach Chip Kelly jumped ship to take the offensive coordinator position at Ohio State. They lost to Indiana 42-13 at home as a 3.5-point dog. While it was technically a home game, last Saturday's 34-13 home-covering loss (+23.5) against Oregon didn't feel like a Big Ten bout. Penn State passed its toughest test of the season with ease in dispatching Illinois 21-7 Saturday night. In their first year under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, the Nittany Lions offense is becoming more explosive each week. Last year, Penn State's offense generated just 47 plays of 20 or more yards; They've produced 21 through the first four games this season. What makes this offense so lethal is the balance of 245.8 yards passing and 251.0 yards rushing. Penn State's defense, expected to drop off after the departure of defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, remains in the Top 10 in college in most of the essential metrics. The play here is over the 44.5-point total. The Nittany Lions are averaging 36.2 ppg and most likely will cover the total themselves. If UCLA can somehow scratch out a touchdown, that would just be icing on the cake. The over is 6-4 in the last 10 games that Penn State has been a 4-touchdown home favorite. PICK: OVER 44.5 UCLA-Penn State

Season Record: 7-6 53.8%

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College Football Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks

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