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College Football Predictions: Week 5 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/23/2024

College football predictions and opening line report Week 5 Luke Altmyer Illinois Illini

Welcome back to the 5th week of the college football opening line report, where we look ahead to the upcoming slate of college games and give you an early lean toward sides and totals. A 4th-quarter Kansas collapse kept us from going 3-1 and made us break even at 2-2. Our year-to-date record is hovering around .500, at 4-5.

Conference play begins in earnest this week and should ramp up the intensity and excitement levels dramatically for the remainder of the season. I can't decide if the SEC schedule-makers were geniuses or dummies in scheduling one of the Top 3 games of the year, Georgia at Alabama, so early in the season. On the positive side, both teams should be close to 100% healthy. But I love seeing titanic matchups at the end of the year for all the marbles, ala Ohio State vs. Michigan. Ultimately, it helps out the loser, as they have plenty of time to come back from an early season setback, and that's probably best for the game.

All times are for the Eastern Standard Timezone.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

No. 19 Illinois vs No. 9 Penn State (-17.5/48) Sat. Sep 28th 7:30, pm NBC

This is Penn State's conference opener, while Illinois opened with a 7-point victory at Nebraska as a 9-point dog. Penn State fans are trying to make this an "unofficial" White Out, as the official one is set for Washington on Nov 9th. Both of these teams are undefeated, but Illinois's road was much more challenging, even though they did play an FCS opponent to open the season. In their non-cover 34-27 win against Bowling Green, Penn State allowed 375 total yards of offense, 254 of that through the air. Illinois has one of the best QBs in the nation that you never heard of: Luke Altmyer. All he's done is complete 71.4% of his passes for 862 yards and 10 TDs to zero INTs. Historically speaking, Penn State owns this series straight up at Happy Valley, going 8-2 SU over the last 10 meetings at home. However, against the spread is virtually the opposite, with just a 3-7 ATS mark in those games. I think the Nittany Lions tend to play to the level of their opponent, but the Illini are much too good to be getting these many points. PICK: Illinois +17.5

Navy vs Alabama Birmingham (+3.5/56.5) Sat. Sep 28th, Noon ESPN2

UAB's head coach, former Super Bowl-winning QB Trent Dilfer, is having a rough start to his coaching career, as the Blazers are 1-2 this season and only 5-10 in his first 15 games. Navy is coming off an impressive win against Memphis, 56-44, as 9-point home dogs. As usual, the Midshipmen are lethal on the ground with their triple option, averaging 6.4 ypc and 307.3 yards a game. This brutal rushing attack efficiently sets up their limited passing game, and they lead the nation with 19.6 yards per completion. This spells bad news for a UAB team that gives up 197.3 yards a game on the ground. Navy is only 4-6 SU but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. These two new conference opponents met for the first time last season, with Navy winning handily 31-6 as a small 2.5-point home dog. PICK: Navy -3.5

No. 8 Oregon vs UCLA (+24/55.5) Sat. Sep 28th, 11 pm FOX

The Ducks invade LA to take on the Bruins in an early-season Pac-12 game—er, wait. That was the case for the past 38 years, but now this regular matchup is in the Big Ten conference (which has 14 teams now and counting). After a slow start in the first game of the year, Oregon's offense has been its usual explosive self, averaging 43 ppg against Boise State and Oregon State. Their defense, though, isn't championship-caliber yet, as they're allowing 20.7 ppg. UCLA is in the first year of the Deshaun Foster era. Foster, who is 4th all-time for rushing in Bruins history, was handed a shit-show by the recently departed head coach Chip Kelly, who left to take the offensive coordinator position at Ohio State. UCLA is slightly above average in passing, throwing for 231.7 yards per game, with an NCAA average of 219 yards per game. Their rushing attack, however, is abysmal at only 60.3 ypg. Even though these two schools moved into a historically stronger defensive conference, I don't think they're aware of that just yet. The last 10 meetings of these rivals have seen the over go 6-3-1, with the average score being Oregon 39- UCLA 24. PICK: OVER 55.5

Maryland vs Indiana (-7/55.5) Sat. Sep 28th, Noon BTN

One coach who has been successful right away in his new home is Indiana's Curt Cignetti. The former JMU coach has his new Hoosiers off to a 4-0 start, with an offense ranked 5th in the nation in scoring offense (50.5 ppg) and 7th in scoring defense (9.2 ppg). He has, however, been the beneficiary of the third easiest schedule in the country. Maryland is 3-1, with their only blemish being a conference loss at home against Michigan State. The Terps are actually ranked higher than the Hoosiers in total offensive yards a game, 453.0 to 451.3 ypg. Before the season started, I was high on Indiana as a dark horse in the Big Ten. I've followed Cignetti for the past two seasons when he was coaching James Madison University, where he was wildly successful. He brought the bulk of his coaching staff and over a dozen key players who have made an instant impact. The one player added from outside the JMU ranks is their QB, 6th-year senior Kurtis Rourke. Rourke, who transferred from Ohio University, is having a stellar year, completing 75.5% of his passes (4th in the nation), 1,013 yards (25th), and 8 TDs (20th) with no interceptions. In fact, Indiana has not turned the ball over once this season, with seven takeaways. Indiana's schedule, while easy, was the perfect way to work themselves into a good team, which is what they've done. PICK: Indiana -7

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