College Football Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/16/2024

College football predictions and opening line report Week 4 Jalon Daniels Kansas Jayhawks

It's Week 4 of the Opening Line Report, and congratulations are in order for all of the bettors who took the under 9.5 for Florida State's win total. With their third consecutive loss last weekend, this one to the Memphis Tigers, Florida State can only reach nine victories. The most exciting competition in the state of Florida is betting on which head coach gets fired first. Florida's Billy Napier entered the season with the hottest seat in the country and has done nothing to cool it off. However, if the Seminoles Mike Norvell ends up with his third losing season in five years, he could get the axe first.

The OLR did its own Florida State impersonation last week, going 0-3 in its picks. We lost by the hook on the Arkansas State-Michigan under 45.5, as the final was 28-18 Michigan. Kansas lost outright as a touchdown favorite to UNLV, and Wake Forest was gutted by Mississippi, losing 40-6 and failing to cover as 23-point home dogs. Our record for the season moves to 2-3.

As the season progresses, injuries start to mount, and the injury report becomes a vital tool to reference. College athletes also have to deal with academic issues and eligibility. And while this is merely a formality in some schools, in others, it's as costly as a torn ACL. Texas Heisman hopeful QB Quinn Ewers was forced to leave the Longhorn's game against UTSA in the second quarter with a strained abdomen, and it's not clear if more games will be missed.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

All times are Eastern Standard Timezone.

No. 24 Illinois vs. No. 22 Nebraska (-9/43.5) Fri., Sep. 20, 8:00 pm FOX

"Friday Night Lights" is one of my favorite nonfiction books of all time, so I love Top 25 college football matchups on Friday nights. Something has to give here, as both teams are undefeated straight up and against the spread. Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule continues to prove that he has almost mystical powers in repairing broken college football programs. The Cornhuskers haven't had a winning season since going 9-4 in 2016 and haven't been ranked since 2019. This looks like a low-scoring affair, as both defensive units allow less than 9 ppg. Illinois is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Nebraska and 11-3 in their last 14 games on the road. I think Nebraska will win, but nine points seems too much. PICK: Illinois +9

Kansas vs. West Virginia (-2.5/57.5) Sat., Sep. 21, Noon ESPN2

Besides Florida State, it would be difficult to find two programs that have been more disappointing this season than these teams. Kansas was ranked in the Top 25 and had aspirations of winning the Big 12. West Virginia's faithful were adamant they would blow out visiting Penn State in their season opener. Three weeks into the season, both teams are sitting at 1-2, thoroughly dejected. Kansas lost last week as a touchdown favorite at home to UNLV. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, blew a 10-point lead with less than five minutes left in the game to their hated backyard rivals, the Pittsburgh Panthers. Kansas has the better defense. And while he hasn't shown it this season, Jayhawks QB Jalon Daniels is loaded with talent. A better defense getting points is typically a solid wager. PICK: Kansas +2.5

Tulane vs. Louisiana (+3.5/55) Sat., Sep. 21, Noon ESPNU

After a two-game run against Power 4 opponents (Kansas State and Oklahoma), Tulane returns to mid-major land when it travels to take on Louisiana from the Sun Belt Conference. While the Ragin Cajuns don't have the schedule resume that the Green Wave does (an FCS opponent and Kennesaw State from the CUSA), they have handled their business, allowing 10 points a game in both victories. Tulane has dominated the win column in this series, going 4-1 SU but only 2-3 ATS in their last five meetings. The Green Wave have played very well on the road against Sun Belt Conference opponents, going 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games against their fellow mid-major conference. Tulane has faced the tougher competition, which will give them the advantage in a close, hard-fought game. PICK: Tulane +3.5

Arkansas State vs. Iowa State (-21.5/51.5) Sat., Sep. 21, 2:00 pm ESPN+

Arkansas State continues to see how the big boys live with its second consecutive road game against a Power 4 opponent. Last week, it lost but covered against Michigan, 28-18, as a 21.5-point dog. This week, it opens against Iowa State with the same spread. We're looking at the under here, as the Cyclones have given up an average of 11 ppg but have averaged only 20.5 points on offense. The Red Wolves defense has been better than expected, holding Michigan to 28 points. Iowa State's defense is ferocious at home, with the under going 10-1 in their last 11 games. In the last 19 games where Arkansas State has been a road dog of 3 touchdowns or more, the under is 13-5-1. PICK: UNDER 51.5

Last Week: 0-3

Year-to-Date: 2-3 (40%)

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College Football Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks

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