College Football Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 9/9/2024

College football predictions and opening line report Week 3 Jalon Daniels Kansas

Welcome to Week 3 of the College Football Opening Line Report, where we look at the upcoming week of college football and identify early lines that might be vulnerable. Our humble apologies for the absence last week; we had personal issues arise. To recap our first week's worth of picks, we went 2-1, as North Dakota State easily covered against Colorado, as did Oklahoma State against FCS South Dakota State. We lost when James Madison went into Charlotte and soundly defeated our selection of the 49ers.

It didn't take long for bedlam to find its customary place in college football. Florida State is ensuring pollsters have a legitimate reason for leaving them out of the playoffs this year. They have opened the season 0-2, marking the first time in their history in the ACC that they have started conference play 0-2. Notre Dame, ranked No. 5 in the country, saw their playoff hopes dealt a heavy blow this past Saturday in a home loss to Northern Illinois out of the MAC. Finally, it looks as though the new Dr. Pepper commercial about the hype train was specifically made for fans of the Colorado Buffalos, as they struggled in their first win against an FCS opponent and did not look competitive against Nebraska.

I often think of the nonconference portion of the college football season, like the NFL's preseason. Obviously, the significant difference is that the games count for your record in college. However, in the first few games, teams are still ironing out the wrinkles and kinks in their play. This is why Florida State's scheduling was a failure. Maybe they won't improve enough throughout the season to make a difference. However, now, even if they do, their chances of winning the ACC are very remote. In today's college football landscape, scheduling is becoming more challenging, but this concept should always be present.

Week 3 in college football season sees most teams wrapping up the nonconference slate of their schedule. With that, there are a few interesting matchups between Power 5 schools. Friday evening, we have No. 20 Arizona (2-0) traveling to No. 14 Kansas State (2-0). Saturday starts with an SEC versus Big Ten clash as No. 4 Alabama (2-0) will get to hear the end of the 3rd quarter playing of House of Pain's "Jump Around" when they visit Wisconsin (2-0). Newly-ranked No. 24 Boston College looks to make another monumental leap forward as they go to No. 6 Missouri to take on the Tigers.

All games are listed in the Eastern Standard Time zone.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

UNLV vs. Kansas (-7/57.5) Fri., Sept. 13, 7:00 pm ESPN

The Jayhawks dropped from the Top 25 polls this week after their 23-17 loss at Illinois. The Rebels are gaining some traction after an opening weekend road underdog win at Houston and a 72-14 slaughter of FCS Utah Tech. This line initially opened at Kansas -8.5 and quickly started dropping. Kansas's QB Jalon Daniels, a preseason Heisman hopeful, is off to a rocky start, going 27-47 for 289 yards and three touchdowns to four interceptions. However, it is important to remember that he missed the bulk of last season with injuries. Also, Illinois has a good Big Ten defense, which means it would have an excellent Mountain West Conference defense. UNLV is doing its best Air Force impression, averaging 349 rushing yards over their first two games. The problem is Kansas's rush defense is stout, surrendering just 77 yards a contest. UNLV will be stepping up in class of opponents this week, and it will show. Kansas is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against a Mountain West opponent. They make it 6-1 ATS after Friday. PICK: Kansas -7.5

Arkansas State vs. No. 17 Michigan (-22.5/45.5) Sat. Sept. 14 Noon BTN

The defending national champion Michigan Wolverines lost at home to No. 3 Texas 31-12. The defeat was Michigan's first setback in 16 games, dating back to the 2022 CFP loss to TCU. Arkansas State remained undefeated with another close 28-24 victory over Tulsa. The Red Wolves have two wins with a total point differential of +7. We have already started seeing bettors back the Sun Belt Conference visitor, and the line has dropped two points from the opening 24.5. However, the line I'm looking at is the total of 45.5. Neither one of these offenses is in prime form. Michigan's defense is about as good as expected, giving up 389 yards to the Number 3 team in the nation. Arkansas State followed their poor defensive showing in their season opener with an impressive effort against Tulsa, allowing 362 yards in offense. Michigan has an excellent history of low scoring affairs when a big home favorite. The under is 2-7-1 in the last 10 games when Michigan is favored at home by 21 or more points. PICK: Arkansas St vs. Michigan UNDER 45.5

No. 5 Mississippi vs. Wake Forest (+23.5/64) Sat. Sept. 14, 6:30 pm CW

Ole Miss takes their No. 5 ranking into Winston-Salem, North Carolina, to meet Wake Forest. These two Power 5 southern schools have met only twice in their history, with Wake winning both. Lane Kiffin has the Rebels' offense in post-season form, leading the nation with 655 yards per game. Numbers, however, can be deceiving, as one of those games was against an FCS opponent and the other against a Sunbelt Conference foe. Wake is 1-1, defeating FCS North Carolina A&T and then losing last week as a 1-point dog to Virginia 31-30. While I acknowledge Mississippi is an offensive powerhouse, this line feels too high. The Demon Deacons are experienced being a huge home dog, going 0-7 SU but 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs of three touchdowns or more. The Rebels have had literally no against-the-spread success as big road favorites, going 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS when favored by three touchdowns or more on the road. Wake's offense is potent itself, averaging 528 yards and 37.5 ppg. Mississippi simply has not played anybody yet to warrant laying this kind of wood on the Power 5 road. PICK: Wake Forest +23.5

Year-to-Date Record

2-1 (66.7%)

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College Football Predictions: Week 3 Opening Line Report and Picks

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