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College Football Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 10/29/2024

College football predictions and opening line report Week 10 Bryson Daily Army

As the leaves pile up on the ground, marking the arrival of fall, the excitement for college football intensifies. Week 10's college football Opening Line Report sets the stage for thrilling matchups as November football begins.

We had a solid week to close out the month of October, going 2-1. Boise State earned its most challenging victory of the season, winning (and covering) 29-24 against the UNLV Rebels as a 3.5-point favorite. The Broncos are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS on the season. BYU went on the road and grabbed a convincing 37-24 victory as a 2.5-point road dog. That victory kept them a perfect 8-0 SU and a stellar 7-1 ATS. Our only loss came from Michigan State, who fell to their in-state rival Michigan 24-17, failing to cover as a 4-point underdog. The Spartans' value this year has been as an underdog. While they're 4-4 SU/3-4-1 ATS overall, they are 2-4 SU/3-2-1 ATS.

Quite a lot has been written about this season being the "Year of the Dog" in college and the NFL. Last Wednesday added another chapter to that narrative, as winless Kennesaw State shocked the world when they defeated previously unbeaten Liberty 27-24. The KSU Owls, who just made the jump to the FBS level this season, won as 27-point home underdogs. They became the third team this season with an outright win as three touchdowns or more point underdogs: Northern Illinois (+28.5) beat No. 5 Notre Dame 16-14, and Vanderbilt (+22.5) defeated No. 1 Alabama 40-35. While these wins have been impressive, they still pale compared to the 2007 season, where arguably the greatest upset in college football history occurred when then-FCS Appalachian State upset No. 5 Michigan 34-32 to open the season as 31-point dogs. Ranked teams lost to lower or unranked opponents 62 times during the regular season, highlighted by both No. 1 and No. 2 teams losing in the same week two consecutive weeks, in Weeks 13 and 14.

Scoring has increased, with the 10 highest-scoring offenses averaging 41.2 ppg, the most points averaged since the pre-COVID season of 2019-20, which saw the Top 10 offenses put up 42.1 ppg. The Miami Hurricanes, 8-0 SU/4-3-1 ATS, lead the way in scoring with 45.4 ppg. Boise State, 6-1 SU/4-3 ATS, is second with 42.3 ppg. The surprising undefeated Indiana Hoosiers, 8-0 SU/ 7-1 ATS, round out the top three in scoring offenses with 42.1 ppg.

The 10 lowest-scoring teams make just as compelling a point about the increase in offense. These "Terrible Ten" offenses are scoring an average of 14.9 ppg, the highest total since the 2018-19 season when these inept offenses produced 17.0 ppg. UMass, 2-6 SU/3-4-1 ATS, is the lowest-scoring squad with 13.8 ppg. Houston, 4-4 SU/ATS, comes in next at 14.1 ppg. Winless Air Force, 0-7 SU/ATS, rounds out the bottom three with 14.3 ppg.

All listed game times are for Eastern Standard Timezone.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Air Force vs. No. 21 Army (-22.5/41.5) Sat. Nov 2, Noon CBS/Paramount+

This game is the second leg of the "Commander's Cup" trophy in the annual competition between the three service academies (for those who don't know, the Marine Corps technically falls under the Department of Navy, so their officers that go to college on a full-ride go to the Naval Academy before heading off to serve in the Marines). Navy dispatched Air Force earlier in the season 34-7, with Navy easily covering a 10-point spread. Army is now the only undefeated team ATS in the country, with a record of 6-0-1. While I think the Cadets cover this big spread against the Falcons, the play here is over the total of 41.5. Air Force's offense has started to show some signs of life, averaging 19 ppg over their last three contests after scoring just 12.5 ppg in their first four games. Army is 7th in the nation in scoring with 40.2 ppg and has seen five of their seven games go over the total this season. PICK: OVER 41.5

No. 13 Indiana vs Michigan St. (+7.5/51.5) Sat. Nov 2, 3:30 pm Peacock

The Hoosiers are starting to feel like Rodney Dangerfield here; they "don't get no respect at all." They have answered every challenge handed to them, with a perfect 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS record, the third-highest scoring offense (42.1 ppg), and the eighth-lowest scoring defense (15.7 ppg). A weak schedule has people deceived, but new head coach Curt Cignetti is simply a winner. This line is another example of that deception, as our models have Indiana winning by over three touchdowns. The Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games and have covered six straight Big Ten contests dating back to last season. The Spartans hold the edge recently, going 8-2 SU in their last ten meetings with the Hoosiers. However, this Indiana team is vastly different than those. This is the college football OLR's "Game of the Year." PICK: Indiana -7.5

No. 19 Ole Miss vs Arkansas (+7/53.5) Sat. Nov 2, Noon ESPN

After being stunned by Kentucky, No. 19 Ole Miss has gone 2-1 and, honestly, should be 3-0. They took a 7-point lead with 3:14 left in the game against LSU and let the Tigers drive 75 yards in 2:47 to score the tying touchdown and then lost in overtime. Arkansas, meanwhile, played this same LSU squad and got manhandled 34-10. The Rebels have the best defense in SEC play, giving up just 11 ppg in conference tilts. They are still very much alive for a playoff spot but cannot afford any more missteps. The Razorbacks are having a decent season, but playing for a nice bowl isn't the same as playing for a CFP spot. Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin has no qualms about running up the score to make his team look better. The Rebels win comfortably here. PICK: Mississippi -7.5

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