College Football Playoff Analytical Report

by Joey House - 12/19/2024

Welcome to Doc's Sports College Football Playoff Analytical Report! Here, we'll dissect the upcoming playoff games with in-depth analysis to guide your betting choices. Let's uncover the strategies and stats that could help you turn those tickets into wins.

It seems like yesterday we were talking about the surprising upset that Georgia Tech pulled against Florida State in Ireland to kick off the 2024-25 College Football season. That surprising win (which turned out to be not surprising at all) epitomized how crazy this college season would be. It already promised to be historic as football bluebloods Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and Oregon, along with a few other schools, left their respective home conferences and joined either the Big Ten or SEC. The NCAA announced in December of 2022 that the playoffs would expand from the four-team format to a 12-team field.

Now that the chaos has died down from selection Sunday (unless you're a Bama fan, in which case it may never go away), we have the "Dirty Dozen," the 12 best (ahem) teams that will be playing in the inaugral tournament. The Top 4 seeds, winners of their respective conference championship games, get the crucial first-round bye and an extra week of rest.

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Indiana (11-1 SU/ 9-3 ATS/ 9-3 O/U) vs. Notre Dame -7.5/50.5 (11-1 SU/ 10-2 ATS/ 7-5 O/U) Friday, Dec 20th, 8 p.m. EST (ABC/ESPN)

In one of the most captivating matchups of the first round of the playoffs, the spotlight shines brightly on the state of Indiana. The Indiana Hoosiers will make the short trip 200 miles due north to challenge the storied program of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, a team steeped in rich history and tradition. While the geographical distance between the two campuses is modest, the chasm in their football legacies feels astronomical, making this clash seem like a movie script waiting to be written.

Under the guidance of their first-year coach, Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers may be college football's most successful surprise this season. In case you didn't Google him, the former James Madison head coach, Cignetti, does, in fact, simply win. Indiana became the fourth school that Cignetti dramatically improved, winning 11 games after the Hoosiers went 3-9 in 2023. While many preseason publications had Indiana finishing near the bottom of the newly expanded Big Ten conference, yours truly was a bit more bullish on them.

However, the Hoosiers' most significant detriment is their strength of schedule, or the lack thereof. Indiana's schedule, ranked the 67th most difficult, is the second-lowest in the playoffs. They played just one ranked team this season, No. 2 Ohio State in the Horseshoe, and were soundly defeated 38-15. Cignetti used the Hoosiers' third-highest average scoring margin to prove why Indiana deserved more recognition. Closer examination, however, shows that those margins may be inflated. In their season-closing victory against in-state rival Purdue, the Hoosiers' starting QB, Kurtis Rourke, who had already missed a game earlier in the season due to an injury, played the entire game and threw for 2 TDs in the 4th quarter despite Indiana leading 45-0. When Notre Dame defeated Purdue 66-7 this season, three different QBs took snaps as the Irish signal caller.

The Hoosiers have the second-highest scoring offense in the country, putting up 43.3 ppg this season. Yet they scored 20 points against Michigan and just 15 against Ohio State. Of the 11 FBS teams' scoring defenses on Indiana's schedule (they played FCS Western Illinois, only Ohio State and Nebraska averaged holding their opponents under 20 points per game. The Hoosiers have put up many points but have mainly been against inferior defenses.

The Fighting Irish boast the third-best scoring defense in the FBS, with 13.6 ppg allowed. The scoring average of their 12 opponents, all in the FBS, was 26.1 ppg, almost a full two touchdowns higher than what the Irish allowed defensively. In addition, Notre Dame is second in the FBS with a +1.3 turnover margin. In Indiana's only loss to Ohio State, plus their close victory against Michigan, the Hoosiers struggled to make adjustments to counter their opponents' blitz packages. The Irish passing defense is Number One in completion percentage (48.7 %) and passer rating (94.1) and is in the Top Ten interceptions (17) and yards per game (141.1 ypg).

While these schools are separated by only 176 miles, they have only played once in the last 65 years, with Notre Dame defeating Indiana 49-27 in 1991. In the 25 games between the in-state rivals, the Irish hold a commanding 22-3 lead, with the Hoosiers' last win coming in 1950.

While I've been a huge supporter of Indiana all season as I followed Cignetti at James Madison University, I was even surprised how much and quickly their new head coach turned things around. The Hoosiers defeated one of college football's "blue bloods," Michigan, for just the third time in 45 years. However, Notre Dame is a significant step up in class for the Hoosiers, Ohio State, notwithstanding. I expect Indiana to keep the game close, but the Fighting Irish will pull away late and cover the 7.5-point spread. The best bet is the under 50.5 points. Both defenses are solid, especially against the pass. The weather will be cold and windy, with the possibility of snow showers. All of which will aid these strong pass defenses in effectively grounding any aerial attack.

BEST BET: UNDER 52.5

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