College Football Playoff: Odds and Best Bets to Make 12-Team Field
We haven't even experienced our first College Football Playoff, and it already has a March Madness feel to it. We obviously have quite a ways to go before that, but nobody can argue that a 12-team college football playoff is long overdue.
I read this morning that if the season ended now, and the BCS was still in place, the championship game would be between Penn State and Oregon. That’s an interesting matchup. However, why stop at just one meaningful postseason game when you can add several more?
I hope one day I’ll be writing about a 64-team CFB Playoff.
Today, though, let's put together a few best bets to make the CFB Playoff. I understand the rankings come out next week. And while that will give us a better idea of what the committee is looking for, it also tips off the sportsbooks. As long as we don't get too deep into the weeds, I believe we can use our intuition and common sense about what kind of teams will be selected.
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Betting Odds to Make the College Football Playoff
Before this season started, we didn't know how the first-ever College Football Playoff would play out, and we still don't. However, I do want to give you some best bets to make the College Football Playoff. If you remember the betting lines from the beginning of the season, you'll notice that the odds have changed quite a bit. However, it's mostly the same teams listed.
Let’s recap how our best bets and sleeper picks for the College Football Playoff are doing now.
Preseason Best Bets Current Odds
Notre Dame: -200 Notre Dame: -175
Penn State: -140 Penn State: -650
Alabama: -110 Alabama: -115
Clemson: +200 Clemson: -190
Wow, so Notre Dame and Alabama are right about where they began. Even if we use an implied probability calculator on these odds, they don't match up with the percentages you will see on the Official Allstate Playoff Predictor, for example.
The Clemson Tigers’ line has nearly flipped from a 2-1 dog to a 2-1 favorite. Before we count our winnings, though, we have to note that the Allstate Predictor only gives them a 32% of making the CFB Playoff. Our best EV was with the Nittany Lions.
Preseason Sleepers Current Odds
Boise State: +460 Boise State: -180
Oklahoma State: +800 Oklahoma State: N/A
Virginia Tech: +800 Virginia Tech: +3300
SMU: +1000 SMU: +200
I felt good about the SMU pick, eh about the Hokies, who still have a small chance, and great about Boise State. We have running back Ashton Jeanty to win the Doak Walker, as well as head coach Spencer Danielson to win the Bear Bryant Award at 28-1. Boise broke my heart back in 2012 at FedEx Field when they came back to beat my Hokies. I remember how nice their fans were on the metro ride back. I wanted to hate them, but I couldn't. I'm happy it worked out that way, because I didn't hesitate for a second to bet on them in the preseason. There's something in the water out there in Idaho.
Favorite Odds Underdog Odds
Oregon: -4000 Kansas State: +110
Georgia: -1600 Indiana: +140
Ohio State: -1000 Ole Miss: +190
Texas: -1000 SMU: +200
Penn State: -650 LSU: +220
Miami: -600 Memphis: +450
Clemson: -190 Colorado: +500
Boise State: -180 Pittsburgh: +500
Notre Dame: -175 Missouri: +750
Tennessee: -175 Army: +1000
Iowa State: -150 Illinois: +1400
BYU: -125 UL-Lafayette: +1400
Alabama: -115 UNLV: +2000
Texas A&M: -105 Virginia Tech: +3300
We don't currently have the option to bet a team not to make the CFB Playoff, so we just ignore Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, and Miami, because they all have odds far out of our price range at greater than 6-1.
The next team down is the Clemson Tigers, who have looked incredible since they were Dawg'ed 34-3 to kick off the season. They're 10-point favorites at home this week against Louisville. I like them there, and then the Tigers make the trip to Blacksburg for what will likely be a night game. The Hokies are tough at home, but Clemson has won six straight in the series by an average score of 36-15. They could win out and lose in the ACC Championship and not get in.
Boise State controls their destiny. However, disciplined program or not, these are still kids who will be under more and more pressure as the season progresses. Then, they have to win the Mountain West title game against a team just trying to play the spoiler.
Before we move out of that price range, Tennessee appears to be an affordable option at (-175). I would wait, though, because they need to at least look decent against Georgia and then prepare and get up for Diego Paiva and Vandy. Maybe catch them after a good performance against the Bulldogs if their injury report and betting odds, and favorable against Vanderbilt.
It isn't likely that both Iowa State and BYU make it, so I wouldn't be paying any juice for either.
Alabama and LSU have a showdown in Death Valley next weekend after both are on a bye this week. Bet Bama before this game because, after it, their odds to make the CFB Playoff will jump significantly.
Texas A&M is a play you want to make sooner than later as well. They look incredible right now and I have a feeling the committee thinks so, too.
Getting to the plus money, Indiana is (-420) on the moneyline to win at home over Michigan next week. I would hold off, though, on this one. Indiana is the team I am most interested to see where the committee places them.
The Colorado Buffs would be a whole lot of fun as they have the projected #1 and #2 draft picks leading their offense and defense.
As for Kansas State, Iowa State, or BYU, that one is tough, but I like the team with the better defense, Iowa State. BYU is also #1 in the nation in luck rankings, so something has to give with them soon.
Best Bets to Make the College Football Playoff
Alabama: -110
Their schedule has been brutal, and their two-loss record shows it. I love their chances from here, though. Not that I think they need it, but If any team gets a political push, it's Bama.
Texas A&M: -105
Passing is supposed to be the fun choice, but the steady and sometimes exciting one is running the ball for the Aggies. I love their head coach, and this team just needs to win out and give a decent showing against the Longhorns.
Iowa State: -150
I prefer to back defense, and from the looks of the betting odds, the sportsbooks do as well. The betting strategy hasn't changed from the preseason. Let's let the books do the work for us, following the narrative at about an 80/20 rate.
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