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College Football Playoff: Odds and Best Bets to Make 12-Team Field

by Mike Allen - 10/31/2024

College Football Playoff odds and best bets for teams to make 12-team field Ashton Jeanty Boise State

We haven't even experienced our first College Football Playoff, and it already has a March Madness feel to it. We obviously have quite a ways to go before that, but nobody can argue that a 12-team college football playoff is long overdue.

I read this morning that if the season ended now, and the BCS was still in place, the championship game would be between Penn State and Oregon. That’s an interesting matchup. However, why stop at just one meaningful postseason game when you can add several more?

I hope one day I’ll be writing about a 64-team CFB Playoff.

Today, though, let's put together a few best bets to make the CFB Playoff. I understand the rankings come out next week. And while that will give us a better idea of what the committee is looking for, it also tips off the sportsbooks. As long as we don't get too deep into the weeds, I believe we can use our intuition and common sense about what kind of teams will be selected.

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Betting Odds to Make the College Football Playoff

Before this season started, we didn't know how the first-ever College Football Playoff would play out, and we still don't. However, I do want to give you some best bets to make the College Football Playoff. If you remember the betting lines from the beginning of the season, you'll notice that the odds have changed quite a bit. However, it's mostly the same teams listed.

Let’s recap how our best bets and sleeper picks for the College Football Playoff are doing now.

Preseason Best Bets          Current Odds

Notre Dame: -200                 Notre Dame: -175

Penn State: -140                   Penn State: -650

Alabama: -110                        Alabama: -115

Clemson: +200                       Clemson: -190

Wow, so Notre Dame and Alabama are right about where they began. Even if we use an implied probability calculator on these odds, they don't match up with the percentages you will see on the Official Allstate Playoff Predictor, for example.

The Clemson Tigers’ line has nearly flipped from a 2-1 dog to a 2-1 favorite. Before we count our winnings, though, we have to note that the Allstate Predictor only gives them a 32% of making the CFB Playoff. Our best EV was with the Nittany Lions.

Preseason Sleepers                                     Current Odds

Boise State: +460                                          Boise State: -180

Oklahoma State: +800                                  Oklahoma State: N/A

Virginia Tech: +800                                       Virginia Tech: +3300

SMU: +1000                                                   SMU: +200

I felt good about the SMU pick, eh about the Hokies, who still have a small chance, and great about Boise State. We have running back Ashton Jeanty to win the Doak Walker, as well as head coach Spencer Danielson to win the Bear Bryant Award at 28-1. Boise broke my heart back in 2012 at FedEx Field when they came back to beat my Hokies. I remember how nice their fans were on the metro ride back. I wanted to hate them, but I couldn't. I'm happy it worked out that way, because I didn't hesitate for a second to bet on them in the preseason. There's something in the water out there in Idaho.                                         

Favorite Odds                              Underdog Odds

Oregon: -4000                              Kansas State: +110

Georgia: -1600                             Indiana: +140

Ohio State: -1000                         Ole Miss: +190

Texas: -1000                                  SMU: +200

Penn State: -650                           LSU: +220

Miami: -600                                    Memphis: +450

Clemson: -190                               Colorado: +500

Boise State: -180                           Pittsburgh: +500

Notre Dame: -175                           Missouri: +750

Tennessee: -175                             Army: +1000

Iowa State: -150                              Illinois: +1400

BYU: -125                                        UL-Lafayette: +1400

Alabama: -115                                 UNLV: +2000 

Texas A&M: -105                             Virginia Tech: +3300

We don't currently have the option to bet a team not to make the CFB Playoff, so we just ignore Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, and Miami, because they all have odds far out of our price range at greater than 6-1.

The next team down is the Clemson Tigers, who have looked incredible since they were Dawg'ed 34-3 to kick off the season. They're 10-point favorites at home this week against Louisville. I like them there, and then the Tigers make the trip to Blacksburg for what will likely be a night game. The Hokies are tough at home, but Clemson has won six straight in the series by an average score of 36-15. They could win out and lose in the ACC Championship and not get in.

Boise State controls their destiny. However, disciplined program or not, these are still kids who will be under more and more pressure as the season progresses. Then, they have to win the Mountain West title game against a team just trying to play the spoiler.

Before we move out of that price range, Tennessee appears to be an affordable option at (-175). I would wait, though, because they need to at least look decent against Georgia and then prepare and get up for Diego Paiva and Vandy. Maybe catch them after a good performance against the Bulldogs if their injury report and betting odds, and favorable against Vanderbilt.

It isn't likely that both Iowa State and BYU make it, so I wouldn't be paying any juice for either.

Alabama and LSU have a showdown in Death Valley next weekend after both are on a bye this week. Bet Bama before this game because, after it, their odds to make the CFB Playoff will jump significantly.

Texas A&M is a play you want to make sooner than later as well. They look incredible right now and I have a feeling the committee thinks so, too.

Getting to the plus money, Indiana is (-420) on the moneyline to win at home over Michigan next week. I would hold off, though, on this one. Indiana is the team I am most interested to see where the committee places them.

The Colorado Buffs would be a whole lot of fun as they have the projected #1 and #2 draft picks leading their offense and defense.

As for Kansas State, Iowa State, or BYU, that one is tough, but I like the team with the better defense, Iowa State. BYU is also #1 in the nation in luck rankings, so something has to give with them soon.

Best Bets to Make the College Football Playoff

Alabama: -110

Their schedule has been brutal, and their two-loss record shows it. I love their chances from here, though. Not that I think they need it, but If any team gets a political push, it's Bama.

Texas A&M: -105

Passing is supposed to be the fun choice, but the steady and sometimes exciting one is running the ball for the Aggies. I love their head coach, and this team just needs to win out and give a decent showing against the Longhorns.

Iowa State: -150

I prefer to back defense, and from the looks of the betting odds, the sportsbooks do as well. The betting strategy hasn't changed from the preseason. Let's let the books do the work for us, following the narrative at about an 80/20 rate.

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