Chicago Bears: Easy Decision for Justin Fields vs. Caleb Williams

by Robert Ferringo - 1/11/2024

The biggest story in the NFL right now is, obviously, the unfolding playoff drama and the question of who will win the Super Bowl.

But the minute that the first piece of confetti hits the turf at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Super Bowl Sunday, it will mark the official beginning of the NFL offseason. And for the second year in a row, all eyes will be on the Chicago Bears at the top of the NFL draft.

Through a mixture of good luck, bad football, and savvy dealing, the Bears will have the No. 1 overall pick for the second straight season. They claimed the top spot in 2022 by virtue of their own incompetence and the worst record in the NFL. This year they earned the first pick thanks to a draft day trade with Carolina, 2023’s most inferior team.

Discussions about what the Bears should do with the 2024 top pick have been going on for weeks. The bobblehead media has basically framed the issue like this: either the Bears commit to Justin Fields as their “Franchise Quarterback” and use the top pick on a premium position (like Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrison Jr.) OR they trade Fields and use the top pick on USC quarterback Caleb Williams, whom they name their new starter.

So, according to the public consensus, the Bears must make a choice: Justin Fields or Caleb Williams.

I’m here to tell you that this entire line of thinking – Fields or Williams – is one of the dumbest football arguments I’ve ever heard.

There is a right answer to this question. In fact, there is only ONE right answer. You may not agree with it. But you would also be wrong. Because Chicago’s best course of action is blatantly obvious.

The right answer isn’t one or the other, it’s both.

There is absolutely no doubt that Chicago’s best course of action is to announce that Justin Fields will be their starting quarterback heading into the 2024 season and then select Caleb Williams with the top pick in April’s draft.

Any suggestion otherwise is ridiculous and completely loses the plot.

The Bears don’t have to choose between Justin Fields or Caleb Williams. They can – and should – have both.

Why Should The Bears Keep Fields As Their Starter?

First, let’s deal with the Fields portion of the equation.

Fields has spent three erratic seasons in Chicago. He never should’ve been the starter as a rookie. He was thrown into the fire and bumbled his way through his first season while the team went 6-11 and subsequently fired its head coach.

In 2022 Fields had a new head coach, a new offensive system, he played behind a terrible offensive line, and was surrounded by the flimsiest roster in the league on a team that was rebuild-tanking. Unsurprisingly, the Bears were the worst team in the NFL. Then in 2023, behind an improved line, with a bona fide No. 1 wideout in D.J. Moore, assisted by an improved defense, Fields had his best season as a pro.

The arrow is clearly pointing up for Fields. He has a strong arm, elite athleticism, and his teammates like him.

However, there are still plenty of question marks about what his actual ceiling is. Fields turns the ball over way, way too much. His accuracy is suspect and his decision making and game management are both poor. He holds onto the ball too long, and his fourth quarter metrics are among the worst of any NFL quarterback over the last two years.

He’s still young. Fields could grow to become a better version of Jalen Hurts. Or he could devolve into another Zach Wilson. At this point, no one knows which way he’ll go.

Here is the great news for the Bears: they don’t have to guess on which way Fields will go! They don’t have to decide what they think about Fields right now. They don’t need to try to ascertain his ultimate ability from either his disappointing play in Green Bay in Week 18 or his red-hot December. They don’t have to try to read the tea leaves.

Fields is entering the fourth year of his rookie contract, and Chicago can (and absolutely should) exercise his fifth-year option. That would give the Bears two full years to continue to develop and evaluate Fields. Then, after potentially 34 more starts, (which would nearly double the 37 he has made in three seasons), Chicago can make a more informed decision.

I feel like two more years is enough time to properly evaluate who this guy is or isn’t, don’t you?

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So Why Should The Bears Draft Williams, Too?

While the Bears are figuring things out with Fields, they can draft Caleb Williams and let him sit and learn. I have already discussed at length about how pro football teams are awful at developing young quarterbacks and why it is a terrible idea to start a rookie quarterback in the NFL.

To give you the Cliff’s Notes, rookie quarterbacks shouldn’t start their first season because:

1. They aren’t ready physically, mentally and emotionally.

2. They learn bad habits because they play for bad coaches, surrounded by bad players.

3. They get hurt because they don’t know how to protect themselves.

4. A lot of the best quarterbacks of the last quarter century (Brady, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Mahomes, etc.) didn’t start as rookies.

5. The economics don’t support starting a rookie as a risk vs. reward.

Again, you may disagree with me and you may think that first round picks at quarterback should start immediately. That is the consensus among current NFL Knowers. Guess what: they are wrong and you are wrong. Rookie quarterbacks should almost never start in their first year.

Williams is no exception. He should not start at all his first year in the NFL. And if Chicago drafts Williams, it would offer him the perfect situation to sit and learn what it means to be an NFL signal caller.

Williams would be subject to a similar contract to Chicago as what they have with Fields. He will sign a four-year deal with a fifth-year option and a manageable franchise tag cost for a sixth year. That means that if the Bears draft Williams they would essentially have him under team control for six seasons.

Six years is an ETERNITY in the NFL! Of the 32 head coaches that started the 2020 season – just three seasons prior to this one – only 14 were still coaching the same team in 2023. Only eight head coaches survived the period from 2017-2022, a six-season clip, to remain with their teams heading into 2023.

And two of the survivors – Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick – have since been let go.

So here is the deal: the Bears can keep Fields for the next two years (at least) while also drafting a potential successor, whom they could have under team control for at least three more years AFTER a move on from Fields. This is the perfect “two birds, one stone” situation. Chicago can take two full seasons to see if Fields can maximize his potential while also drafting and developing a backup plan in case Fields doesn’t pan out.

Is Having Too Many Talented Quarterbacks On Cheap Rookie Deals A Bad Thing?

Again, this whole debate has been framed in the media as Fields vs. Williams. Why? Is there such a thing as having too many good quarterbacks? That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard!

An astounding 66 different quarterbacks started games in 2023. Sixty-six! That’s an average of more than two per team. Why wouldn’t teams want to stockpile as many good arms as they can afford?

If Fields continues to ascend and over the next two seasons proves that he has what it takes to potentially be a 10- or 12-year starter and multiple Pro Bowl player, then that’s a great success for Chicago. If that happens they can sign Fields to a long-term deal while still retaining a valuable trade asset in Williams.

If Fields proves over the next two seasons that he is Just A Guy and doesn’t distinguish himself as worthy of a market-level second contract, then that’s fine too. You know why? Because Chicago will already have a successor in place that is under team control for three more seasons (plus a potential fourth under the franchise tag). The Bears can let Fields walk at the end of his rookie deal. And then rather than handing the team over to a rookie quarterback or free agent mercenary, they can give the ball to Williams, a guy that’s been in the locker room for years, knows the players, coaches and system, and is ready to step in and perform.

There is also a third option: Fields proves himself to be a legit NFL starter. But the team sees Williams in practice and training camp and decides that he is a generational talent and they decide to roll with him. (This is basically what happened with Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.) Guess what: the Bears can still trade Fields to a quarterback-needy team and recoup other assets.

What Is The Downside To NOT Keeping Fields And Drafting Williams?

There is literally no downside to the Bears keeping Fields as a starter AND drafting Williams.

However, there are considerable downsides to picking one or the other.

What if the Bears trade the No. 1 pick and Williams goes on to be yet another Pro Bowl/Hall of Fame quarterback that the Bears passed on. Remember: Chicago passed on Mahomes for Mitch Trubisky. And they also, by virtue of trade, essentially passed on C.J. Stroud last year. Can the Bears really afford to continue passing on top tier quarterback talents?

Also, what if Chicago dumps Fields, drafts Williams and then throws the rookie into the fire before he’s ready? The Bears, a team with a roster on the verge of playoff contention in 2024, could sink further back into their perpetual rebuild. Williams could flounder as a first-year player, which would likely lead to another coaching change and push them further away from contention.

Or what if they trade Fields and draft Williams and Williams is a bust? What if he gets hurt? What if Fields goes on to be a star?

Chicago’s franchise history at the quarterback position has been beyond bleak. They have an opportunity to change the entire trajectory of the organization’s woes under center. If they don’t seize on this chance, they are just repeating the same failures that have plagued the Bears for the last 50 years.

You can never have too many talented quarterbacks!

The Packers Get What Every Other Team Doesn’t

Drafting and developing a quarterback while you already have a Pro Bowler under center is hardly unprecedented. (And Fields isn’t even a Pro Bowler.) In fact, Chicago doesn’t have to look any further than Green Bay to see the benefits of this approach.

The Packers used a first-round pick on Aaron Rodgers in 2005 when Brett Favre was still at the height of his powers. Rodgers sat for three years learning behind Favre. Rodgers went 6-10 in his first season as a starter – his fourth year in the league – and then put together a Hall of Fame resume as a 15-year starter in Green Bay.

Then do you know what the Packers did? They took Jordan Love with a first-round pick in the 2020 draft when Rodgers was still at the height of his powers. Love sat for three years learning behind Rodgers. Love went 9-8 in his first season as a starter – his fourth year in the league. It’s too early to crown him as a future Hall of Famer. But there is absolutely no denying the Love looks like a legitimate starting quarterback capable of a 10- or 12-year career.

And if you watched Love vs. Fields in Week 18, it was clear Love was much, much better than his counterpart.

The Packers aren’t the only team that have taken this approach. The Eagles took Hurts in the second round in 2020 when they had Carson Wentz. The Chiefs drafted Mahomes in 2017 when they had a Pro Bowler in Smith. The Patriots drafted Jimmy Garoppolo in the second round in 2014 when they had Tom Brady. Washington drafted Robert Griffin III in the first round in 2012 – and then took Kirk Cousins in the fourth round of the same draft. And in 2004, the Chargers selected Eli Manning (whom they traded for Philip Rivers and draft picks) No. 1 overall when they already had Drew Brees.

Compare those drafted-and-stashed quarterbacks to the graveyard of talented guys that were chosen in the first round, forced into a starting role too soon, and flamed out.

The Idiotic Arguments Against Keeping Fields And Drafting Williams

Let’s dispel two of the flimsy ‘arguments’ against keeping Fields and drafting and developing Williams.

1. Fields would be better if he had more help.

Chicago still has the No. 9 pick in the NFL draft and they will have anywhere between $67-$82 million dollars in cap space this offseason. They could draft a top-tier receiver (in a draft loaded with them) at No. 9 and still have enough money to sign another wideout and bolster the offensive line.

There are a ton of free agent offensive linemen available this offseason. Chicago’s current starting five is decent, and all under contract for next season. They would be looking for veteran depth rather than a high-priced impact starter.

And after drafting a wideout at No. 9, the Bears should still have enough money to either make a run at a top tier free agent receiver like Michael Pittman or snag two affordable vets like Tyler Boyd and Curtis Samuel.

The Bears various options to get help for Fields. They can do that AND shore up their quarterback room for the rest of this decade in one fell swoop.

2. You can’t invest that much money into the quarterback room.

This argument is not only wrong it is comically wrong. The economics are actually one of the reasons that the Bears SHOULD draft Williams.

Fields is in the fourth year of his rookie deal and is set to count around $6 million against the salary cap in 2024. Chicago should also activate his fifth-year option, which would cost them $25 million in 2025.

(Also, the cost of the franchise tag for NFL quarterbacks in 2023 was $32 million. That will undoubtedly increase between 2024-2026. But if the Bears needed to or wanted to, they could franchise Fields for around $36 million in 2026.)

Next, let’s use the contract of the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, Bryce Young, as a baseline for what Williams would earn. Williams will likely sign a four-year, $40 million deal with a $25 million signing bonus. His cap charge should be around $7.5 million in 2024, $9 million in 2025 and $12 million in 2026.

Further, the projected salary cap for 2024 is set to be around $245 million, give or take, and projections for 2025 are in the upwards of $270+ million.

If those numbers are close, then Fields and Williams, combined, would make around $13.5 million next year. That would equate to just 5.5 percent of Chicago’s 2024 salary cap. They would combine for $34 million in 2025 (13.1 percent of the cap) and on the off-chance Chicago franchised Fields in 2026 their costs would add up to $48 million (approximately 16.8 percent f the cap).

According to Spotrac, in 2023, there were eight teams (Titans, Chiefs, Lions, Cowboys, Ravens, Broncos, Rams and Bills) whose quarterbacks took up at least nine percent of their cap. Guess what: six of those teams made the playoffs. What Chicago would pay these quarterbacks over the next two years is not only reasonable, it’s a bargain.

There Is One Exception, But It Is Unrealistic

Last year Chicago traded the No. 1 overall pick for two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a Pro Bowler in D.J. Moore. Some people have suggested that if they can reproduce that trade again then they should do it to stockpile assets.

The odds of getting the No. 1 overall pick in back-to-back years are astronomical. I don’t think that Chicago can afford to pass on taking the best player in the draft twice in a row.

However, if they can top last year’s deal, then maybe they should pull the trigger. But they should only do that if they aren’t sold on Williams. And if they trade out of the No. 1 spot they should still draft a quarterback at No. 9!

If the Bears could get three first-round picks, a second-round pick, and a Pro Bowl player (Maxx Crosby from Las Vegas, Justin Jefferson from Minnesota, Pat Surtain or Justin Simmons from Denver, or Quinnen Williams from the Jets) then I suppose that would be an acceptable haul.

I just can’t see any of those quarterback-needy teams parting with that much capital, though, because this year’s draft is loaded with potential NFL starters at the position.

In Conclusion…

Keep Fields. Draft Williams. Simple.

Chicago can continue to evaluate Fields as the starter over the next two seasons, at a cut-rate price. The Bears can draft Williams No. 1 overall and stash him on the bench. They should use the No. 9 pick on a stud receiver to compliment Moore. And then use their salary cap space to sign another wideout, depth at offensive line, and depth to supplement the defense.

If they do that, then Chicago should have playoff aspirations (or expectations) in 2024 and 2025. If Fields can’t get them there, then he’s not a franchise quarterback (whatever that means). If Fields plays well enough to get Chicago to the postseason and make a run at a title, then he will have earned a second contract, making Williams trade bait.

At the same time, the Bears can hedge their bets. They can allow Williams to mature. He can learn. He can come along slowly and without pressure. He can follow the path that some of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history have followed by NOT starting his rookie season.

And if Fields proves that he is not The Guy, then Williams will be ready to step in and let it rip without the messy learning curve of an unproven rookie starter.

The Bears are a franchise that have made mistakes at the quarterback position over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. Here is their opportunity to change the future for this team.

I hope they are smart enough to make the only decision that makes sense. Because every other answer is the wrong one.

(Now someone PLEASE get this article in front of Chicago General Manager Ryan Poles immediately!)

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Chicago Bears: Easy Decision for Justin Fields vs. Caleb Williams

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