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Best Underdog Wagers for Sweet 16 Upset Picks

by Mike Allen - 3/26/2024

Sweet 16 upset picks Armando Bacot UNC Tar Heels

Who let the dogs out?!

I'm asking because we have barely heard any barking. Is it possible we left the fence gate open, and some of these dogs slipped away from us?

Oakland was one of those underdogs that most of us probably missed out on, at least until the second round of the tourney when people jumped on the bandwagon a day late and lost money, taking them to beat NC State.

The Wolfpack have been nothing short of sensational, but who else?

Texas A&M almost made history against the Houston Cougars just days ago. However, like my pops always told me “Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades”.

Other than that, we had two #12 seeds advance from the first round only to meet their demise over the weekend.

What does all this mean? Well, the underdogs are due! I may not have the intestinal fortitude to pick against one of the #1 seeds straight up, but continue to read as we have the best Sweet 16 underdog plays for you today.

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#4 Alabama (+4) vs #1 Noth Carolina (-4)

Moneyline

Alabama: +165

North Carolina: -190

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the #1 scoring team in the nation. We have to start with that. There is another looming statistic that we can’t ignore either, though. The Tide rank 348th in points allowed per game.

They still have a +10-point scoring differential this season, which is impressive, to say the least. Any team this imbalanced can beat anyone on a given day. They are going to score, and they can still play terrible defense, and the other team simply misses the shots they would normally make.

If the Heels go cold from beyond the arc, they must rely on a strong field goal percentage, and they are only shooting 50% in 2-point field goal percentage. That sounds like a good number, but it ranks 168th.

Bama is bad at 2-point defense, also ranking 198th in the nation. Get this, though. Bama is 37th in the nation guarding the three-point shot. I can see the Tide building a lead and carrying it into the second half.

Hopefully, they can find a way to move their feet and contest as many shots as possible. The Heels better be hot because the best offense in the country isn’t going to stop coming.

Pick: Alabama (+4)

#5 Gonzaga (+5.5) vs #1 Purdue (-5.5)

Moneyline

Gonzaga: +197

Purdue: -227

I feel a bit stronger about our other two predictions today, but I wanted to get a bet in there for the Gonzaga Bulldogs to hopefully keep this one close in the waning minutes of the game.

Do I think they can beat Purdue? Sure, but I like having 5 points to play with even more.

Looking at points per game and points allowed, these two teams are nearly even. While the Bulldogs rank a respectable 34th in three-point shooting, Purdue puts them through the net from downtown at more than a 40% rate, good enough for 1st in all of college basketball.

That kind of perimeter shooting to go along with the most dominant player in the nation is a tough test for anyone. Let’s say the Boilermakers can’t keep the heat up in the kitchen and miss a lot of threes. The Zags will then have a good chance.

These two teams played one another back in November, and Purdue got the W by 10 points. They did struggle from beyond the arc, though. If Gonzaga can keep up contesting the three, I like them to keep it close.

We may need Zach Edey to get an ear caught in the net as he is walking by, but Gonzaga played them pretty well before. I think they can do it again in the Sweet 16.

Pick: Gonzaga (+5.5)

#11 NC State (+6.5) vs #2 Marquette (-6.5)

Moneyline

NC State: +245

Marquette: -290

The NC State Wolfpack are the only Cinderella story of the Sweet 16. The powers that be have to keep that going then, right? It's impossible to be a conspiracy theorist and be successful in betting and predicting sporting events. Believe me. I've tried.

If I was feeling that kind of way, I would probably take the Wolfpack on the moneyline this week. It’s a bet that has cashed a lucky 7 times in a row.

We have to be real with ourselves, though. The Wolfpack are such a fun team, but Marquette has been better since the beginning of the season. On paper, this matchup isn't very close. I wanted to find some stats to help make the case for NC State, but they are few and far between.

What I did encounter, though, was numbers that point to Marquette being one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation, and they aren't exactly lights out from the free-throw line, ranking just 245th in the nation from the charity stripe.

Let’s take the 6.5 points and the Wolfpack to keep the Golden Eagles on the ground long enough to keep this one close. From there, if Marquette can miss some free throws, maybe we have a game to play in the final few minutes!

Pick: NC State (+6.5)

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