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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 9: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 10/31/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 9 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

Heading into Week 9 of the 2024 NFL Regular Season, most bettors are in the red. I heard one ridiculous statistic the other day about betting on sports. It was that 99.5% of all bettors, meaning anyone who's ever placed a bet on a sporting event, is down money in their lifetime. That's brutal.

Before we can become one of the seemingly genius 0.5%, we have to figure out what got us here in the first place. A big part of this, I would say 80%, simply aren't serious about it. They're just adding a bit of fun and excitement. I have plenty of friends like this. I give them a point total, a side, and a player prop for Sunday. Not 15 minutes later, they hit me back with a lucky number 13-leg parlay with a payout of $1,968,423.

Thankfully, the vast majority of these tickets are for ten bucks or less. It's chipotle or a coffee. That keeps society out of ruin and sports betting legal.

The key word in all of this I want you to remember is parlay. Boy, can two (-250) favorites look rather enticing, especially when it pays better than just betting one point spread or total at (-110). Here is another "most people" moment. Most people never do the math on these parlays to see if they would make the same amount betting each game straight up. "Sadly", this is the case. Almost always, parlays are not a good bet. And with the parity in the NFL, this point needs to be hammered home with a 15-pound sledge.

Who's still with me? Yes, parlays are fun, and I definitely recommend it over going to the store and playing the lottery. With that said, treat them as such. They are lottery tickets you created, and if it hits, you'll feel even better about it because it truly was yours.

First a lecture, now a pipe dream. Stay with me, though. There is a proven method and strategy to use parlays to make money betting on the NFL. You use a basic strategy to make a teaser or it may say teaser card at your sportsbook.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is when you add points to a point spread or total, but the catch is you must do it for at least two teams, making this a parlay. We started with parlays are terrible, and now I’m about to tell you that this is one of the best weekly NFL bets you can make.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

Telling a parlay lover about teasers without giving them a strategy would simply be cruel. Sure, they would win more in the short term because they can add points to their selection. After a while, though, it would just be another lottery ticket.

You need a basic strategy for your teasers, and it goes like this. These teasers are only for NFL games because there is more parity and lower scores. The lower the point total for a game, the more your points count. How many points should you add? The answer is always 6. The hardest part about this strategy is just coloring inside the lines. Just let the level-ish league and the most efficient market do the work for you. It's best to do your teaser as close to the Sunday kickoffs as possible. That is when the betting odds are the best. Everything has already been baked in. With these teasers, we aren't trying to beat the number. We are letting them work for us.

The strategy is simple. We want to tease through the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7. The key number of 3, for example, is the most common margin of victory in an NFL game. The numbers 7 and 6 are the second and third most common.

This week, we will look for betting favorites of (-7.5) to (-8.5) and tease them down to (-1.5) to (-2.5). For betting underdogs, we find ones with odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5) and tease them up through those key numbers to dogs of (+7.5) to (+8.5).

Potential NFL Week 9 Teaser Games

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns (+1.5) Total: 43

The lookahead line for this game was much wider at 4, so it may not be best to back the Browns here. The Chargers may be the side this week.

Look, anytime you get rid of your worst person in the most important position, a leadership role, you’re gonna get better. Jameis Winston was the man for the job last week. He’s special. Winston is the antithesis of the guy he replaced. This dude can inject energy directly into your veins with only his voice.

Hey, this team could still be riding high at home, but I've always been told to bet the replacement QB in their first game and not the second. Maybe we come back to this game, but we could have more advantageous options to come.

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) Total: 52

Outside of the Carolina Panthers, the Falcons' biggest win this season is just 6 points, and that came in overtime in a game they should have lost. We know Dallas has backdoor cover potential. They did it last week against the Niners.

The Cowboys could win this one straight up. This one jumped off the page at me as a teaser play. However, the point total is, by far the highest of any potential teaser game.

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) Total: 48

I want no part of this one. I think the Rams are the side, and it's also a high total.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) Total: 45.5

Okay, this is our first look at teasing a betting favorite down through those key numbers. The Philadelphia Eagles' receiving corps is back healthy, and it shows with three consecutive wins. The Jags gave up 170 yards on the ground last week against the Pack, including 127 from Josh Jacobs for more than 5 yards a carry. Good luck with Saquon Barkley on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Bucs (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) Total: 45.5

This one just became available in real time, as the line has dipped to (-8.5) for the Chiefs. We are getting the same moderate total as we are with Philly. We know the deal with KC at this point. They win as short underdogs, cover as less than a field goal favorite at home, and win but don't generally cover spreads higher than a touchdown.

I like the under if you’re betting this game straight up and that works out well to tease them also. KC keeps a spy on Bucky Irving, takes a lead into halftime, and eats away at the clock against a suspect run defense through the 3rd and 4th quarters.

NFL Week 9 Basic Strategy Teaser

I love that we got KC here. If they are (-9) by the time you read this, use the Dallas Cowboys instead. Atlanta doesn’t have the pass rush to slow down Dak Prescott.

Keep Philly, though. The Jags traded one player and there are some articles hot off the press from strong sources pointing toward the fire sale starting early in Jacksonville.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) + Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)

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