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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 7: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 10/16/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 7 Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

I understand that the public is coming off their best week of the year. However, rest assured, the sportsbooks will get their money back. It's our job to make sure it's not us. There are a few showdown games in Week 7 with betting odds that scare the crap out of me.

Outside of just picking a side for fun or one being your favorite team, how many bettors are lining up to seriously make money on a game like the Chiefs visiting the 49ers? The line is (-1.5) for the home 49ers, so that makes this essentially a pick'em. 

This game, along with a few others like the Jets vs Steelers and Lions vs Vikings, will probably be decided in the final quarter. Think about all the bounces and or penalties that could or could not go your way. If only there were a way we could give ourselves a little cushion on the betting odds. Well, we could tease the games.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay wager where the bettor can manipulate the betting line in their favor. That, of course, comes at a price. For example, if we want to add 6 points to two different teams this week, we would have our teaser. However, it doesn't pay what a typical parlay would. Instead, a two-team 6-point NFL teaser pays out at (-120), significantly less than the (+264) you can get by parlaying two (-110)'s together.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

What’s the point of a tease without a solid strategy? You get in the mood to win, but your money never returns. You need a strategy. Thankfully, a guy by the name of Stanford Wong came along and found the best possible formula to tease football games.

Firstly, make sure you’re only teasing NFL games. College football has greater variance and much higher point totals. A higher point total means the points you give your team mean less.

Next is to only do two-team teasers. Now, what betting odds are we looking for?

We want to find underdogs with odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5) and tease them up through the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7 to dogs of (+7.5) to (+8.5). The basic strategy is to tease through those key numbers. Roughly 25% of NFL games end with a point differential between 2 and 8, as well as within 1 and 7. Lastly, to tease a betting favorite down, we simply spot the (-7.5) to (-8.5) point favorites and tease them down to just (-1.5) to (-2.5). 

Potential NFL Week 7 Teaser Games

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints (+2.5) Total: 37

Right away, you will notice the low point total. Only a 9+ point win for the Broncos here would beat us if we teased the Saints up to (+8.5). We know we have two rookie quarterbacks and at least one strong defense. Pretending we finish with 37 points, let's see what score would beat us if we tease the Saints. Denver would need to win about 23-14. I feel pretty good about the Saints keeping this close through three quarters. However, they quit early in their home loss on Sunday, while the Broncos' displayed what the Thais call "Jai soo" meaning a lot of heart, in a worse loss to the Chargers. Add in the massive coaching mismatch with Sean Payton and Dennis Allen, and I'll pass.

Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) Total: 50

How many teams have won 49-6 and been nearly 3-point betting underdogs the following week? The Detroit Lions have looked incredible this year, just not as strong as the Minnesota Vikings.

I can say this about the Lions. The offense is super strong and capable of coming back if needed. However, they are built to bully, and I like them as favorites more than underdogs.

Minnesota has overachieved, but 5-0 against the spread is still perfect. I like the Lions to stick with Minnesota for most of this one. Let's continue our search for a team to tease. Hopefully, the next one we find doesn't have a large total of 50 like this game.

Carolina Panthers (+7.5) at Washington Commanders (-7.5) Total: 51.5

That might finally be the week to take the Panthers with the points. It's only worked once for the pros so far, but the Panthers have a stronger running offense and run defense than Washington. If Jayden Daniels loses focus for one game this year, it would probably be this one.

I don’t know how Carolina stops him, but the high total and the run games lead to a pass for us.

Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) Total: 47

Wow, this one will be fun! It wouldn't matter to me which team we give the 6 points, I feel pretty good about a positive result. In this case, though, we get the rare opportunity to not only bet on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, but we can tease them up 6 more points. Remember, Kansas City was on a bye last week, while San Francisco played on Thursday night.

New York Jets (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) Total: 38

New York does look much more effective on offense with the new play-caller. Losing the head coach did hurt the morale/focus of the defense. However, the team has had time to digest the moves, and I think the defense is more on board after seeing the improvement where the team needed it the most; on offense.

Aaron Rodgers is still a statue in the pocket. We have the low point total we want, but the Steelers' offense and defense are built around having the lead. That's why you see the road Jets as the favorites. It's not the worst idea to bet on Mike Tomlin in this spot. However, we have several solid candidates for teaser games.

LA Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) Total: 44

We have a fairly low point total. However, how did that work for those who teased the Broncos up in their loss to LA on Sunday? Denver is a completely different team than the Cardinals in their makeup. However, I would power rank them closely.

Week 7 Basic Strategy Teaser Pick

The Saints have an atrocious coach and minimal heart. Carolina matches up well with Washington in the run game. The Vikings/Lions total is super high. I’m not betting against the Chargers this week. So, who’s left?

When you think about underdog betting trends in the NFL, who's the first QB to come to mind, and who is the first head coach? The answers are Mahomes and Tomlin.

Kansas City Chiefs (+7.5) + Pittsburgh Steelers (+8)

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