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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 6: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 10/10/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 6 Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence

As the NFL regular season rolls on, the point spreads get sharper by the week. It's about the time of year when many NFL bettors' bankrolls begin to shrink. If you do your homework in the offseason, and keep your attachment levels in check, the first few weeks of the season aren't too difficult to come out ahead, provided you bet responsibly, of course. In Weeks 4-6, more or less, the public player who still does his homework can continue his success. For example, the Minnesota Vikings were projected to finish in last place in their division, but they started the season 5-0 against the spread. I promise you it took the sharps longer to jump on the bandwagon. In the long run, caution usually wins out in this game.

One way to be cautiously effective when betting on the NFL is to tease the games.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay wager. The bettor can manipulate the odds in their favor by essentially buying points for either the spread or the total. I normally don't recommend parlays, as it's nearly impossible to make money long-term. With the right strategy, however, a teaser can be one of the best NFL bets you can make.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

The basic strategy you want to implement when teasing NFL games is first to only tease two teams at a time. Number two is to use a 6-point teaser. Now, you want to look for teams with betting odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5). Giving an underdog in this odds range 6 points takes them through the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7. What is a key number?

Well, 3, as you might have guessed, is the most common margin of victory in the NFL. The second most is 7 points, followed by 6. That is how we would tease an underdog up using our basic strategy to odds of (+7.5) to +8.5).

I would rather tease an underdog up, but we can still use our strategy on a betting favorite. Once we find a team we like with betting odds of (-7.5) to (-8.5), we can tease them down to favorites of just (-1.5) to (-2.5).

This basic strategy gives us a 25% chance of winning automatically because 25% of NFL games end within this point differential.

Potential Week 6 NFL Teaser Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) vs Chicago Bears (-2)

The Jacksonville Jaguars were in England last week, and they, of course, are staying over there in wait for Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears. I love that for the underdogs. In this historic week where we may have the most home underdogs ever, we can almost count the Jags as one, as well. They have played over there more than anyone, been there for a week now, and lately, they're playing their best football in England. They should get tight end Evan Engram back this week, and the team appears to be picking up momentum over the past two weeks.

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

This betting line has flipped, which isn’t a good look for the Colts. However, historically, teams who go from dogs to favorites only cover the spread about 40% of the time. The Colts look good right now as a potential teaser team.

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos (+2.5)

The Denver Broncos have finally found their way onto the public’s betting slips. I guess that means it’s time to fade the Broncos. I suppose that’s what the sportsbooks are thinking, because this betting line is quite surprising. In a home division game, a team as well coached as the Broncos with one of the top defenses in the league appears to be undervalued, not to mention 4-1 ATS.

It's the perfect time to make this point. We are paying for our 6 points. We don't get the normal (+264). We get (-120). Therefore, we want to make those 6 as valuable as possible. One way to do that without any research is simply to prioritize low point totals.

Our 6 points carry much more significance in a 35-point spread than they do with one in the 50s. The over/under for this game is 35.5. Regardless of whether we think this will be Jim Harbaugh's coming out party, it's hard not to bet this one preflop just on the numbers. That said, if we are teasing against an elite defense, the probability of a backdoor cover is diminished.

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets (+2.5)

I'm actually on the Jets to win this game outright. The key for New York will be to establish the running game, and against the league's worst defense, I'm confident. Yes, the team just fired their head coach, but the culture wasn't there, and he wasn't calling any plays anyway. The defensive coordinator, Jeff Ulbrich, has taken over. I like that move. Also, playcaller Nathanial Hackett has been replaced by Todd Downing. As you might have assumed, Aaron Rodgers is supportive of both moves.

I like New York here. We have another low total of 41. We have to bet on these moves unconfusing an offense in just a few days that's been a mess all year.

NFL Week 6 Basic Strategy Teaser Pick

The quarterback situation and atrocious defensive play keep us off of the Colts. This is a good buy low spot on Jacksonville and a potential sell high on the Bears. We will add Denver simply because of the home field and low point total.

It comes down to the Jags or the Jets. Jacksonville is returning to health and rhythm, while the Bears are coming off their best performance of the season, albeit against Carolina. However, more importantly, they suffered some major injuries to key positions.

I just wrote an article and picked the Jets this morning. Then I read that they changed the play-calling duties as well. So, was Salah the problem or Hackett? These could be the right moves, but it's simply too much for one week in preparation for the biggest game of the year.

I like the Jags. They have the 2nd best yards per carry in the league, and Chicago ranks toward the bottom of the league at stopping the run.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) and Denver Broncos (+8.5): -120

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