Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 5: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 10/2/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 5 Kirk Cousins Atlanta Falcons

Parlays can be a lot of fun…until they aren't. Whether or not you decide to parlay 2 or 3 selections or to go for 5 or 6, you're probably going to lose. When you do, it seems as if you are just one win away from cashing. At least, those are the ones you don't forget. It's hard enough to pick one winner in the NFL, much less several.

We may have already triggered the memory. However, if not, close your eyes and think about the best NFL parlay you ever built that didn't cash, one of those where you did your homework and were correct about a lot. Not only could the monetary value lighten your mood, but the ego boost would be tremendous. The end result was you fell short by just 3 points on one game.

What if I told you you could've added 6 points to that spread, and your ticket would've cashed? If you're confident in your parlay, you will love teasers.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a parlay wager of two or more bets, where the bettor can manipulate the betting odds. In return, the sportsbooks lower your payout, but that's good. You weren't going to win that (+1430) anyway. You can add various point values, and as I said, if you're already confident in a parlay, you'll likely get carried away before you know it.

What you need is a basic strategy to attack these teasers.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

The base of the basic strategy is to tease only NFL games. College football has much higher point totals and variance. The problem with betting on the NFL is the high parity. With a basic strategy teaser, we can make some of that parity work for us.

If we look at the live NFL betting lines for the week and see a strong favorite of (-7.5) to (-8.5) that we are confident will win, that’s a team we could tease down 6 points through the key numbers of 7, 6, and 3 to odds of (-1.5) to (-2.5). Those are the three most likely margins of victory in an NFL game.

The entire 6-point range we are moving through accounts for a total of 25% of all NFL point differentials. If we want to tease an underdog up, we will look for odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5) and take them through the key numbers to (+7.5) to (+8.5).

Potential Week 5 NFL Teaser Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

If we want to tease this Thursday night game, we would need to tease the Bucs up to (+7.5). They aren't much of a dog, but they are a public underdog, which is generally a red flag. I actually like the Atlanta Falcons here. Tampa can't run the ball, nor can they stop the run, two areas where the Falcons are in the Top 10. Even with Baker 2.0 the past couple of seasons, the Bucs still haven't found any consistency. That said, this one will likely play out closely. Tampa isn't the worst pick from what we have to choose from in Week 5.

New York Jets (+2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Betting favorites have dominated overseas games like this one that's played in England on Sunday morning, at 9 a.m. EST. If anything, I like a bet here on the most impressive team in football as less than a field goal favorite. Nobody blitzes more frequently or effectively as the Vikings. And with Aaron Rodgers yet to build any rhythm with his receivers, I can't see him getting the ball out quickly with success.

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

This is a good spot historically for the Cincinnati Bengals as a home division underdog. It’s a bad spot for the Baltimore Ravens going on the road after a huge win against a desperate division foe. Generally, I prefer to tease games with a low point total because my 6 points hold much more significance in a game with a total of 35 than one above 50. As you might have guessed, the total for this one is the highest of any NFL game this week at 50.5.

The Bengals are an auto-play in this spot for a lot of professionals. I’m not prepared to go that far, but maybe we add the Bengals to our teaser.

Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

No, I'm not betting on the Raiders, and I'm certainly not betting against the Denver Broncos, who are +31 points ATS through four games this season.

Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

I got a few tips to bet the 49ers this week at (-7.5). I was planning to use them in our teaser today. However, the line moved to (-7), and we had to pass.

If we want to tease the Sunday night game, we have to take the Cowboys up to dogs of (+8.5). It feels pretty safe up there if we need Dak Prescott to get a backdoor cover for us. Dallas did it against the Ravens already, and Baltimore has the best running offense in the league to close out games.

We have a low point total of 44, which is a plus. I like Pittsburgh to win and likely cover, but I prefer to bet on Dallas to be themselves down the stretch. They'll lose, but not by two scores, and somehow, Prescott will have another stat line that looks better than his actual performance.

Week 5 NFL Basic Strategy Teaser Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (+8.5) and Dallas Cowboys (+8.5)

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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 5: Basic Strategy Teasers

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