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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 4: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 9/24/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 4 Josh Allen Buffalo Bills

By a country mile, the NFL is the most popular sport to bet on in the USA. However, sportsbooks can sometimes lose money on one sport but still make so much profit from football that it barely matters. I remember living in Las Vegas and sparring with a professional hockey bettor. At the time, only a couple of the casinos in town offered hockey lines because they were getting beat. He left training and went straight to the Hooters Casino to pace his bets.

High scores, referees, crowds, offenses, defenses, the weather, and more all influence the outcome of a football game.

The key for me as a student is the same as it is as a teacher, and nothing changes when it comes to betting. It's all about sticking to a basic strategy rooted in successful simplicity.

Today, I want to share with you guys a basic strategy for teaser bets.

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What is a Teaser Bet?

A teaser is a type of parlay wager where the bettor can manipulate the odds by adding points to one side, whether it be to a total or a team. This, of course, comes at a price. And right now, a two-team 6-point NFL teaser will cost you roughly (-120) in most places. Parlaying two teams at (-110) each without teasing them pays (+264).

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

In the 90s, a man by the name of Stanford Wong looked at this teaser, then priced at only (-110), and saw a lot of value if you teased teams through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

A key number is simply a point differential. And as you might have guessed, 3 is the most common of all margin of victory, with 7 as the second most frequent. The number 6 is the third most likely difference in any NFL game.

The basic strategy is simply to tease underdogs of (+1.5) to (+2.5) up through those key numbers to (+7.5) to (+8.5). I personally prefer to tease underdogs up due to the perpetual parity in the league. However, if you want to tease a favorite down, you just do the inverse. Take them from (-7.5) to (-8.5) down to (-1.5) to (-2.5). This basic strategy gets us to a 25% chance of winning before the games even start. That's the percentage of NFL games that end with a margin of victory between 1 and 7 points, and the number is the same between 2 and 8 points.

Potential Week 4 NFL Teaser Games

New Orleans Saints (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

Admittedly, I blindly picked the Saints here when I looked at the lines. However, after referencing the injury report, and seeing the massive amount of banged-up players on both sides, a pass on this AFC South showdown may be the play.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Indianapolis Colts (+2)

I understand why the Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-point favorites on the road in Indy. Their defense has been the best in football. It’s not hard to cover these small point spreads when you’re allowing less than 9 points per game.

That said, the offense is still a work in progress, and the team is lucky to be 3-0 with just 51 points scored themselves, as they play much better on both sides of the ball when they have the lead. The pressure is off of Justin Fields and on defense, T.J. Watt and company can pin their ears back.

Indy has the opportunity to wear down the Steelers with a steady rushing attack. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has the quickness to escape the pocket and the arm to change the game in an instant. I like his wheels against a likely man-to-man defense from Pittsburgh.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Cheers to potentially the two best coaches in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings have surprised a lot of people in a short amount of time. Sam Darnold is dropping dimes, and the defensive schemes we've seen thus far from Brian Flores may be the best in football.

The way the Vikings have been playing, this seems like an auto-bet with the teaser.

I'm having trouble getting to the window to bet against the Green Bay Packers, though. They may be the most impressive team in the league, and we still don't know if Jordan Love will play, so maybe we look elsewhere.

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

Betting on the LA Rams right now is not something I need, nor do I want to do. They've lost first and second-string players on the offensive line, not to mention both star wideouts are hurt. This is the Bears' Caleb Williams' best chance for a coming out party at home.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

Everything that could have gone wrong last week for the Bucs did, and the odds of that happening again are not likely. That said, the Eagles blew several opportunities themselves, mostly from bad coaching, but still came away with an ugly 15-12 win in New Orleans.

The Bucs' secondary is banged up. And if the Eagles' A.J. Brown returns near 100%, Philly could put up 30.

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have the best rush defense in the league this year, only allowing 2.8 yards per carry. That stat is a bit skewed, though, with games against the Raiders and Cowboys, two of the weakest run offenses.

Buffalo looks like the real deal this year. Josh Allen appears to be peaking or certainly getting close. Buffalo hasn't lost a regular season game by more than seven points since 2020. This team wins big often but rarely ever loses by more than four or so points.

Week 4 NFL Basic Strategy Teaser Pick

Buffalo Bills (+8.5) and Indianapolis Colts (+8)

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