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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 3: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 9/18/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 3 Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals

Sports betting is becoming more popular around the country every year. Football, particularly the NFL, is leading the way in American sports. Once upon a time, we only had the moneyline to bet on, and eventually, the point spread and total came along. With the rise of fantasy football, betting on player performance props each week has become popular and even profitable for some.

Betting parlays can be a lot of fun, well, until one of the legs crumbles under you. We don’t generally recommend betting parlays. However, teasers can be good value.

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay where the bettor manipulates the betting lines in their favor, and in return, the sportsbook lowers the payout accordingly. You can tease either the point total or the point spread. The most popular of these wagers are 6-point teasers, but some go all the way up to 12.

This can be confusing and, at the same time, tempting. I don't like that combination, and thankfully, we don't have to come up with our own way of winning. A basic strategy for NFL 6-point teasers has already been established.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

The basic strategy is to tease through the most popular key numbers. These key numbers are 3, 6, and 7. More games end with a margin of victory of 3 than any other. The second and third most likely point differentials are 7 and 6, respectively.

Since we use a 6-point teaser, we want to look for underdogs with betting odds of (+1.5) to (+2.5) and tease them up to favorites of (+7.5) to (+8.5). If we want to tease a betting favorite down through the key numbers, we just look for favorites of (-7.5) to (-8.5) and take them down to just (-1.5) to (-2.5).

Potential Week 3 NFL Teaser Games

Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

In this instance, we are potentially targeting the Los Angeles Chargers. Teasing them up to (+7.5) might be a solid play here. It's not imperative, but in a week like this, where we have several different games to choose from, teasing a game with a low point total can be an effective strategy.

The 6 points we give them mean more because the total is quite low at only 36.5 points.

As for the matchup, both teams are defensively minded, with the Chargers committing heavily to the running game through the first two weeks of the regular season. Led by J.K. Dobbins, who's averaging nearly 10 yards per carry on 27 attempts this year.

I like this game to go under the total and play out incredibly close.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)

The previous game was a matchup of undefeated teams, and so is this one. I was high on Sam Darnold and the Vikings before the season started, and it feels good to have been correct so far. One might imagine, though, that the team is due for some regression soon.

We had a chance to tease the home Colts up from (+2.5) in Week 1 opposite the Texans. That would have easily hit, but we stayed away and teased the Bengals down against the Pats, and that bet fell flat on its face.

The Vikings aren’t a division rival like the Colts, but they are just as good. My gut is the only thing stopping me from teasing the Vikings here. We have several more choices ahead, though.

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

Where is this betting line if the Eagles didn’t blow three opportunities deep in the red zone and got the win on Monday night? The New Orleans Saints have been the biggest surprise of the season to this point. Still, though, I don’t see them blowing out the Eagles, who we could get at (+8.5) if we wanted.

Green Bay is good. The Falcons are also a probable playoff team. Philly is 1-1 and should be 2-0. I understand expectations are high, but this team is doing pretty well.

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)

This is a tricky one. Both teams were upset at home last week. We can stay away from this game, so we will.

San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at Los Angeles Rams (+7.5)

The LA Rams really burned us last week. Even a 12-point teaser wouldn't have been enough for them against the Cardinals. The 49ers are a decent play here, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for the Rams. LA's offensive line is a mess as well. Playing in Los Angeles is like a home game for the Niners.

Plenty is pointing toward teasing them down. The next game, however, is even more tempting.

Washington Commanders (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

We could take the Niners on the road against a division foe that is simply a better team than the Commanders, but why do that when we can take the Bengals at home with the same betting odds?

Washington did put up 21 points last week in a win. That was seven field goals, though, not three TDs. Their rookie quarterback's style and current limitations are holding the offense back. He's finding his receivers. The problem is that they aren't much farther than five yards down the field.

NFL Week 3 Basic Strategy Teaser Pick

I don't think the Bengals burn us again. Washington doesn't have the defense the Pats had nor do they have the experience under center. As for the Eagles and Saints game, the market has overreacted to both teams.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) + Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5)

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