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Best NFL Teaser Bets Week 16: Basic Strategy Teasers

by Mike Allen - 12/19/2024

Best NFL teaser bets Week 16 Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals

If beating the odds was easy, it wouldn't be worth it. Where would the payouts come from? I'm happy the sportsbooks are rich. And if it weren't for the public screwing up, our edge would be even smaller.

I used to think it was us against the sportsbooks. On the one hand, it ignited my competitive spirit. I grinded and grinded but soon burned out. I didn't hit a wall because I was working too hard. It happened because I was in competition mode.

Think about the ebb and flow of an NFL season. Letdown spots are a real thing. Whether they realize it or not, teams can flow in and out of competition mode weekly. This contributes to the parity of the NFL and is a big reason why just 3 points decide more games than any other margin of victory.

What if I told you that you don't have to beat the odds to win money in the long term with NFL betting? No, I'm not talking about parlaying several big favorites together. That's not a good way to stay in the green, either.

Let that pesky parity work for you instead of breaking your heart right before bed.

Have you ever done a teaser or teaser card before?

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What is a Teaser?

A teaser is a type of parlay where the bettor can change the odds in their favor. The sportsbook, in return, adjusts the payout. Before you think about how to finally assemble the perfect parlay, potentially paying out the bigger part of a million dollars.

That’s what the books want you to do. Instead, we have a basic strategy for you to implement for your teaser bets.

What is a Basic Strategy Teaser?

Looking around a few different sportsbooks, you'll find 4-point teasers up to 12 or higher. Just use 6-point teasers, and we're only going to do this for NFL games. The basic strategy is simply to tease through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Those are the two most common point differentials in the NFL, with the next two most common, 6 and 4, in between.

We want to tease through the key numbers, not to them. Therefore, if we want to tease a betting favorite down, we look for teams with odds of (-7.5) to (-8.5). After the 6 points, we now have favorites under a field goal of (-1.5) to (-2.5). Inversely, we search for slight underdogs of just (+1.5) to (+2.5), and after the tease north, we have them as dogs of over a touchdown at (+7.5) to (+8.5).

Potential Week 16 NFL Teaser Games

Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) Total: 42.5

The public loves the Denver Broncos this week even though the first meeting between these two teams was a blowout, and don’t be fooled by the final. LA was up 23-0 in the 4th.

The line opened at (-3), and the money is still split down the middle. Injuries are beginning to pile up for the Chargers. This game could play out closely, but recency bias and luck cannot be ignored in sports betting.

The Chargers are coming off their worst game of the year, while the Broncos have had just about every ball bounce their way since they had the field goal blocked by the Chiefs.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) Total: 47

Jameis Winston is benched. It's a shame. He can be one of the most electrifying quarterbacks on the field and in the locker room as well. Then, he throws the ball to the other team. My theory is that it's a lesson in controlling your emotions.

Replacing Winson will be Dorian Thompson-Robinson in his 2nd year with the team out of UCLA. He had three starts last year, and the Browns put up 25 points…over those three games.

He threw three picks in his first career start against the Ravens and, since then, has taken care of the ball. A little too much, though, with a career yards/pass attempt of just 3.7. In fighting, we call that snakebit.

What's Joe Burrow's yards/pass attempt this season? Anybody? You're correct if you guessed more than double that of Dorian Robinson. Burrow averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt.

Teasing the Bengals down to (-1.5) gives us one leg.

New York Giants (+8.5) at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5) Total: 42

The truth hurts, and it appears Kirk Cousins isn't the same quarterback physically that he was, and that's now affected his mental. That's when Falcons head coach Raheem Morris decided to sit him.

Enter Michael Penix Jr. I'm sure plenty of Falcon fans have been calling for this for a while. I'm not saying lay the (-8.5) here. However, I favor the backup in his first start off the bench. Then, fade them the second week. We don't have to do either, thankfully.

In all likelihood, the Falcons are a better team with him in there. I also like that we have a low point total. Our 6 points will go farther than they would with a higher total.

Get that ball out of your hand quick, though, young man. The Giants still have the best pass rush in the NFL.

Lastly and most importantly, New York currently owns the tiebreaker over the Raiders for the first pick in the draft. They don't want to win this game.

Week 16 Basic Strategy Teaser Betting Prediction

Pick: Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) and Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5): -120

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